Positive EV Bets Search Tool: Find +EV Bets

How Our Positive EV Bets Tool Works

To find +EV bets, we monitor lines from online sportsbooks to find mispriced odds and lines that should return a profit over time. We check the odds every minute, so you can always find +EV bets that are currently available today.

To explain how it works further, let’s take a look at an example. If almost every sportsbook has the Philadelphia Eagles to win at -130 odds but one sportsbook has them at -105, we assume that -130 is the correct price, meaning there’s value at -105.

>> Read More: How to Read Betting Odds

It’s not as simple as just looking for a market with odds that are more favorable than what other books are offering, however.

In order to be a +EV bet, it has to overcome the ”vig” or “juice” that sportsbooks charge. This is essentially what sportsbooks charge in order to take the bet and is the reason why standard 50/50 odds are usually at -110 (bet $110 to win $100) instead of +100 (bet $100 to win $100).

Using the same example above, if you assume -130 is the correct odds for the Eagles to win and the other side has odds of +110, we can calculate the “Consensus No Vig Odds”—aka the price that sportsbooks would offer if they weren’t taking a cut.

In this case, the no-vig fair odds would be about -119. So, if -119 is a fair bet, you are getting a great deal at -105, creating a Positive EV bet.

To use our Positive EV tool, simply check the cards above to see currently available +EV bets based on our data. Here is an explanation of the columns:

• Event: The game, league, date, and time.
• +EV Bet: The bet that is offering +EV and which sportsbook is offering it.
• Consensus No Vig Odds: The consensus odds among the sportsbooks we track with the vig removed.
• +EV Bet Odds: The odds of the +EV bet in a button that you can click to go to the sportsbook offering it.
• ROI: The expected long-term return on investment based on the +EV bet odds and the consensus no vig odds.

What is Expected Value (EV)?

Expected value (EV) is how much your bet is expected to return, typically shown as a percentage or return on investment (ROI).

Most bets have a negative expected value because of the sportsbook's vig. For example, on a standard 2-way bet with both sides having -110 odds, your expected value is -4.55% or a loss of $4.55 on a $100 bet.

To illustrate with a more simple example, let’s imagine you are betting your friend on a coin flip. If you each bet $1 to win $1, your expected value is $1 since you have a 50/50 shot at winning $2.

Here are the possible scenarios:

• You win (50% of the time): You win $2
• You lose (50% of the time): You win $0

If you take $2 times 50% plus $0 times 50%, you’re left with $1 (0% ROI), aka your expected value from playing.

Now if you take a weighted coin that ends up on tails 75% of the time, but you’re still betting $1 on tails to win $1, your expected value shifts.

Here are the possible scenarios:

• You win (75% of the time): You win $2
• You lose (25% of the time): You win $0

In this case, your expected value is 50% as you’ll win $1.50 ($2 x 0.75 + $0 x 0.25) over time.

It’s important to under expected value to make money sports betting over time. While +EV bets won’t always win, they should mathematically turn a profit in the long run if you consistently bet them.

For example, if you use the same weighted coin above and call tails every time, you may lose your first two coin flips, but over time you’ll turn a profit as the results will start converging to tails winning 75% of the time.

What is a Positive EV Bet?

A positive EV bet is one that has a positive expected return on investment based on the odds.

Betting tails on the weighted coin example from above, for instance, is +EV bet since over time it’s expected to return 50% of what you wager.

While you won’t often find 50% ROI bets on online sportsbooks, it’s possible to find ROIs ranging from 1% to 10%+ quite frequently.

Implied Probability

To truly understand positive EV betting, you first must understand implied probability. Implied probability is the chance that a bet will win based on the odds from the sportsbook.

For example, if a sportsbook has a market with two sides having -110 odds each, the implied probability of each side winning is 52.38%, according to the odds.

You’ll notice that 52.38% multiplied by 2 equals 104.76%—which is over 100%. This extra 4.76% is from the vig that the sportsbooks charge.

>> Calculate for yourself: Implied Probability Calculator

Regardless of the vig, if you think there is a greater than 52.38% chance of one of the sides winning, that would be a +EV bet, assuming you are correct on the chances of it winning being greater than 52.38%.

As another example, if the true chances of a team winning is 60% but the odds imply that they have a 54% chance of winning, this would be a positive EV bet.

No-Vig Odds

Now that you know implied probability, let’s take it a step further and look at what no vig odds are.

In short, these are the odds that sportsbooks would be offering if they didn’t take a cut.

For example, instead of both sides having odds of -110, each side would have +100 odds (a true 50/50 bet).

It’s important to calculate the no vig odds so you can understand if there’s value on lines/odds offered by other sportsbooks.

Let’s say the consensus odds among sportsbooks for the Golden State Warriors to win is -180 (odds1) against the Philadelphia 76ers, who are at +150 (odds2) to win. To remove the vig, we do the following:

1. Convert the odds to Decimal format by doing:
   1. Positive odds: 1 + (American Odds/100)
   2. Negative odds: 1 – (100/American Odds)
   3. odds2 = 1 + (150/100) = 2.50
   4. odds1 = 1 – (100/-180) = 1.56
2. Find the total odds by doing:
   1. TotalOdds = (1 / odds1) + (1 / odds2)
   2. TotalOdds = (1/1.56) + (1/2.50) = 1.041
3. Find the no-vig implied probability of each side of the bet by doing:
   1. NoVig ImpliedProb = 1 / odds / TotalOdds
   2. NoVig ImpliedProb odds1 = 1 / 1.56 / 1.041 = 61.6%
   3. NoVig ImpliedProb odds2 = 1 / 2.5 / 1.041 = 38.4%
4. Convert each implied probability to no vig American odds by doing:
   1. NoVig odds1 = -160
   2. NoVig odds2 = +160

Based on the no vig odds, we can then look for bets with better odds in each direction. For example, if you can Warriors at -159 or better (-155, -145, etc.), that would be a +EV bet. Similarly, if you can get the Philadelphia 76ers at +161 or better (+165, +170, etc.), that would be one as well.

How Do You Find Positive EV Bets?

1) Look for Mispriced Lines at Sportsbooks

The tool above works by finding mispriced lines at sportsbooks. If most sportsbooks have the odds of a bet within a small margin of each other, we assume that these are the “correct” odds. If one sportsbook has considerably different odds, we consider that to be mispriced.

In order for this difference to result in a +EV bet, it must be large enough to overcome the vig that sportsbooks charge.

While you could do this work yourself by checking the odds for markets at many sportsbooks, it would take way too long to find a single +EV bet.

Our +EV Bet Finder tool does the work for you by comparing odds at major sportsbooks every minute to find currently available opportunities.

2) Take Advantage of Odds Boosts

Odds boosts are another way to find +EV bet opportunities. Odds boosts are when a sportsbook increases the odds on a specific bet.

While not all odds boosts are +EV, many are.

If an odds boost is for a single market, you can compare it to other sportsbooks to see how much value it offers.

If the odds boost is on a parlay, it’s harder to calculate if it’s a value bet since it’s harder to know the no vig odds on the bet.

3) Look for Arbitrage Betting Opportunities

Arbitrage bets are rarer opportunities that guarantee you to make money by betting both sides of the market with separate sportsbooks.

You know you have an arbitrage betting opportunity when the sum of the odds of a two-way market add up to a positive number.

A two-way market is just one where there are only two possible outcomes of the bet, such as an Over/Under on a player's points, a moneyline bet where one team has to win, or a spread bet where the spread is the same number with each sportsbook.

For example, if FanDuel has the odds on the Eagles to win at +105 and BetMGM has the Cowboys to win (against the Eagles) at +100, you can bet both sides to guarantee yourself profit either way.

4) Look for Middle Betting Opportunities

The last way to find +EV bet opportunities is by middling a bet. When you middle a bet, you place one bet with one sportsbook and another bet with another.

The key here is that the lines have to be different, giving you a chance to win both bets if the outcome ends up in the middle.

For example, if FanDuel has Jalen Hurts' passing yards at 220.5 and BetMGM has it at 200.5, you could bet the Under 220.5 at FanDuel and Over 200.5 at BetMGM. If the result ends up in between 201 and 220, you would win both bets. If it ends up outside of that range, you would still win one of your bets (though you may not make a profit depending on the odds).

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