Key Takeaways
- Mentions markets on prediction markets like Kalshi allow you to trade on whether a person will say certain words during an event.
- Every market will settle to Yes or No, with correct side paying out $1 per contract.
- Common markets include what politicians, companies during earnings calls, and sports announcers will say.
With mentions markets on prediction markets like Kalshi, you’re trading whether a specific word or phrase will be said during a specific event or inside a defined time window.
You choose Yes or No on the word/phrase and are paid out $1 per contract if you're correct.
There are four main categories of mentions markets:
- Earnings: Every publicly traded company in the U.S. is required to do a quarterly earnings call discussing recent and future performance. For example, you can predict whether Domino’s will say “inflation” in their upcoming call.
- Politics: This is all about what politicians will say during scheduled events or in a specific time frame. For example, you can predict what Trump will say during the State of the Union address or what he'll say this week during broadcast segments.
- Sports: With sports mentions, you predict what announcers will say during a specific game. For example, if a star NBA player sits, you might trade Yes on “load management.”
- Entertainment: This is all about what creators will say, like whether MrBeast will say “subscribe” in his next YouTube video.
If you're looking for an option to trade mentions, Kalshi is my top pick because of the number of markets they offer, the ability to place limit orders, and the typically deep liquidity available.
In the rest of this guide, I’ll walk through how mentions markets work, where to find them, and strategies to help you win more.
How Mentions Markets Work on Prediction Markets
Mentions markets on prediction platforms are Yes-or-No contracts tied to what a person or company will say during a single event or within a defined time period.
The market defines the event, timeframe, and language that counts.
You take Yes if you expect the phrase to be said and No if you do not. Contracts trade from $0.01 to $0.99, and that price is the market’s live estimate of the probability.
There are only two results for these markets: you are correct or you are wrong.
If the term/phrase is said and it qualifies under the rules, Yes settles at $1 per contract and No settles at $0, and vice versa if it's not said.
Everything comes down to the official rules and the approved sources. Audio, transcripts, captions, and specific speakers can all determine whether a mention counts. That’s why these markets trade like event-driven contracts. The language, the context, and the timing all matter.
Categories of Mentions Markets
Mentions markets usually cluster around a few repeatable event types.
Here are the options you'll come across:
- Politicians and press events
- Will Trump say “border” this week?
- Will Powell say “soft landing” during his March press conference?
- Will Karoline Leavitt say “misinformation” in the next press briefing?
- Earnings calls and corporate events
- Will Domino’s say “inflation” on the next earnings call?
- Will Tesla say “price cuts” on the next call?
- Will Nvidia mention “China” during guidance?
- Sports broadcasts
- How many times will NBA announcers say “load management” during a game?
- Will the broadcast mention “back-to-back” in the first half?
- Will the crew say “pace” during the first quarter?
- Entertainment and creator content
- Will MrBeast say “subscribe” in the next video?
- Will a podcast host say “sponsor” during the opening segment?
- Will a streamer say “chat” in the first five minutes?
When You Can Trade Mentions Markets
You can take a position well before the event starts, and on most platforms, you can trade while the event is live.
The pre-event window is where most of the thinking happens. You’re looking at past transcripts, recent headlines, prior messaging patterns, and the broader news cycle. The market is pricing expectation, not confirmation.
In that pre-event phase, moves are usually gradual. A news story drops that makes a phrase more likely, and Yes ticks up. A shift in narrative makes the term less relevant. Liquidity builds as the event gets closer, especially for high-profile names like Trump or Powell.
Once the event begins, everything speeds up. If the keyword is said early, Yes can jump from mid-range pricing to near $1 in seconds. If 10 or 15 minutes pass without it being mentioned, No typically starts climbing as the time remaining decreases.
The final stretch is where volatility gets sharp. Every passing minute without the word increases the pressure on Yes holders. Spreads can widen, price swings get more aggressive, and execution matters.
Live mentions trading rewards focus and fast reactions, especially when the window is tight and the market is thin.
The Importance of Reading the Rules
In mentions markets and all types of prediction markets, the rules decide settlement and it's critical to understand them before trading.
Every contract defines the event, who has to say the phrase, the exact wording, the time window, and what evidence the platform will accept.
If any of those pieces don’t match up, the result can go the opposite way from what looks obvious live.
Who must say it
Earnings calls are the easiest example here.
A keyword said by an analyst during Q&A often won’t qualify because the contract is scoped to company reps.
For Yes to cash, it needs to come from someone on the company side.
What sources count
Most markets provide a rules summary with accepted sources, along with a full rules page that explains how verification works at expiration. Settlement is tied to those sources, not the cleanest clip someone posts on social.
Recently, there was a situation with a Bernie rally mentions market that showed how this can go sideways. The actual event wasn't televised, but traders found a TikTok live stream, where the keywords were clearly stated.
But the contract’s settlement depended on a specific list of approved sources, and there wasn’t any qualifying coverage to verify it under those rules, so everything still resolved No.
That’s where the backlash came from. Hearing the word on a clip isn’t the same thing as having it count under the contract.
When the market expires
This is the piece people forget to price in. Every contract has a cutoff tied to the event.
If the event doesn’t happen in the window, or nothing from an accepted source shows up by expiration, the market settles No. That’s how an earnings call can turn into an event-risk trade.
Take EA Sports' earnings call mentions, for example. EA was acquired in September 2025, but Kalshi still listed their earnings call markets.
Because EA won't have an earnings call as long as the acquisition goes through (as they would no longer be a public company), everything will resolve to No if there isn't one by March 31.
Kalshi: The Best Prediction Market App for Mentions Trading
Kalshi is my #1 pick of all prediction market apps, and it’s easily my top choice for mentions trading.
It checks three boxes that many other apps don't: the ability to place limit orders, low fees, and strong liquidity.
Limit Orders
The last is what I like the most about Kalshi's mentions markets. I can work the book with limit orders instead of smashing whatever price is sitting there, and that’s a big deal in mentions.
These contracts can whip around once the event starts. If you’re taking the available price every time, you end up paying a panic premium on repeat. I’d rather post my levels, let the market come to me, and scale in without chasing.
Fees
Kalshi has relatively low fees, especially when you're placing limit orders.
For Taker orders, which means you're just accepting an available price and your order gets filled instantly, Kalshi charges $0.0007 too $0.0175 per contract, depending on the price you're buying in at.
For Maker orders, which means you place a limit order that isn't filled right away, Kalshi charges $0.000175 to $0.004375 per contract.
Fees are the highest at 50 cents. This is when the market is truly two-sided, and uncertainty is at its peak.
As price drifts toward 0 or 1, fees get smaller, which tracks how often mentions trade once a keyword starts looking either cooked or close to inevitable.
Liquidity
Liquidity is a reflection of trading volume and how many shares are currently on the order book.
If a market has low liquidity, it can be hard to get in and out of positions, since there aren't many people trading.
This is rarely a problem on Kalshi, with almost every mentions market having significant liquidity.
Strategies for Trading Mentions Markets
Mentions markets reward preparation more than hot takes. The edge usually shows up before the event starts, if you’re willing to do a little homework.
1) Use Historical Data
Most mentions of trades should start with data, not a guess.
If you’re trading an earnings call, pull past transcripts and see how often the company has used that term before. Patterns repeat more than people think.
For earning call markets, specifically, I like to check prior call transcripts for what terms were said and see how their mention rate is trending over time.
If a company has mentioned “inflation” on five straight calls, that’s not random. That’s part of their language.
Tools like Earnings Mentions Tracker from Prediction Markets Pro make this faster.
Instead of trying to find and analyze past transcripts, you can see how many times the company said terms/phrases in past calls in a single table alongside live Kalshi prices.
Prediction Markets Pro also has tools for sports, politics, and entertainment mentions. Those aren’t based on transcripts the same way earnings are. They’re based on past market outcomes, which still gives you context on how often certain phrases tend to hit.
2) Check Recent News
After reviewing historical data, I run a quick news check. A simple Google News search can tell you whether that term is trending around the company, politician, or team.
I also use Grok because it pulls from X posts and news articles. That helps surface what’s actually being discussed in real time, not just what made it into formal coverage.
My general flow is simple:
- Prediciton Markets Pro for historical context
- Quick news scan for any recent developments
- Place trade (or decide not to trade) based on that info.
- Periodically check the current prices and buy/sell positions before the event starts.
- Listen to/watch the event and trade live based on how it's going.
3) Get In When the Market Opens
Getting in when the market first goes live is one of the best strategies for trading mentions.
When a mentions market first opens, pricing tends to be all over the place and often isn't in line with the true probability.
If you’ve already done the transcript work (or use a tool like Prediction Markets Pro), you can grab value before the crowd catches up.
On most mentions markets I trade, I have a positive ROI before the event even begins because I got in early before the market caught up.
My goal isn’t always to hold every position until the event is over. I often get in early using data, let the market reprice as the event approaches, and sell at a profit before it ever starts.
4) Read the Rules Every Time
Mentions markets punish assumptions and intuition.
People get burned when they assume “common sense” sources count, or when they don’t notice a restriction on who has to say the phrase.
The rules summary is the quick scan, but the full rules are where the gotchas live.
If a market looks too easy, treat that as a signal to slow down. A 90-cent Yes can be priced that way for a real reason, like a narrow source list, a speaker restriction, or an expiration condition that turns the whole thing into an event-risk trade.
The EA earnings call example is a good mental check. If the company is unlikely to have a qualifying call due to an acquisition timeline, the keyword ceases to be the main driver. The expiration rule takes over, and that’s how “obvious” Yes positions end up dying on a technicality.
5) If Something Seems Too Good To Be True, It Likely Is
Tools help, but they don't always have recent context.
If your tracker shows a company or person saying a term basically never, yet the market is priced sky-high, something is happening.
Most of the time, it’s recent news, a viral clip, a policy fight, or a new narrative your historical view hasn’t yet captured.
That’s the spot to do a quick research pass instead of clicking buttons. Check recent headlines, look at what’s being discussed around the event, and scan for why the phrase is suddenly “live.”
If you can’t explain the price in one or two sentences, you’re probably missing the key context.
How Odds Assist Pro Gives You an Edge on Kalshi & Other Prediction Markets
Most people trading mentions markets are guessing based on intuition.
Prediction Markets Pro (a part of Odds Assist Pro) is built for the opposite. It gives you historical context fast, right next to live Kalshi prices, so you can make decisions based on what’s been said before, not what feels likely in the moment.
Prediction Markets Pro includes four tools made specifically for mentions traders: Earnings Mentions, Sports Announcer Mentions, Politics Mentions, and Entertainment Mentions.
They all solve the same problem: it's hard to gather historical data and use that to find an edge.
Historical data doesn’t guarantee outcomes. It does give you a baseline. That baseline is usually what the average trader is missing.
Earnings Mentions Tracker
The Earnings Mentions Tracker analyzes historical earnings call transcripts for companies that show up on Kalshi and other prediction markets.
It tracks how many times words/phrases were said on all past earnings calls for every company Kalshi offers markets on, allowing you to see how often a company uses a phrase and how that usage changes over time.
The main value lies in the pattern, not in a single quarter.
Some companies repeat the same language on every call. Others only say a keyword when a specific story is active or during a specific quarter.
Sports Announcer Mentions Tracker
The Sports Announcer Mentions Tracker on Odds Assist Pro helps you get an edge on the “what will the announcers say” markets on Kalshi and other prediction markets.
This tool tracks what announcers have actually said during past games so that you can compare today’s market to real historical hit rates.
Filtering is where the edge shows up. You can narrow by team, game, or time period to get a more relevant comp set. That matters because announcer phrasing varies by matchup context, stakes, and even the broadcast crew's habits.
You can also see info about injuries right in the tool for terms like “ankle” and “injury.”
Politics Mentions Tracker
The Politics Mentions Tracker is just like the sports tool, except that it's focused on what politicians will say.
You can see historical results for past markets, such as what Trump will say this week or what Jerome Powell will say in the next Fed meeting, alongside live Kalshi prices.
Entertainment Mentions Tracker
The Entertainment Mentions Tracker is similar to the sports and politics tools, but for markets like “What will MrBeast say in his next YouTube video?“
Compare what he's said in past videos and the trend over time next to current Kalshi prices to find value.
Mentions Markets FAQs
What counts as a “mention?”
A mention counts only if it matches the contract’s wording rules for that market and appears inside the event window. The contract language is usually specific about what counts and what gets ignored.
Do plurals and possessives count?
Often, yes. Many mentions contracts treat plural and possessive forms as valid, but you still want to confirm it in the market’s rules because it can vary.
Do related words and tense changes count?
Usually not. A lot of contracts exclude grammatical or tense inflections and also exclude similar words and synonyms. Close doesn’t always count.
Who has to say the word for it to count?
It depends on the market, and this is where people get tripped up. Earnings-call markets commonly require the mention to come from company representatives, not analysts asking questions, because the contract is scoped to the company side.
What sources are used to settle the market?
Each market lists accepted verification sources, and settlement is tied to those sources at expiration. Most often, official sources include major media outlets (e.g., the NY Times, AP, CNN, Fox News). If a clip or transcript isn’t on the approved list, it won't count towards resolution.
Can I trade before the event and during the event?
Most mentions markets let you trade leading up to the event, and many allow trading while the event is live up to the last trading time. The exact cutoff is market-specific, so check the contract details.
Why do prices trade between $0.01 and $0.99?
These contracts are typically priced in cents to reflect implied probability on a $1 payout scale. A 0.63 price implies that 63% of the outcome will occur.
What happens if the event doesn’t happen?
Many mentions markets include an event contingency tied to expiration. If the event doesn’t occur by the cutoff, or it can’t be verified by accepted sources, the mentions typically all resolve to No.
Can I hold both Yes and No at the same time?
It depends on the platform and how it handles positions. Some systems restrict you from holding both sides of the same strike at the same time, while others allow it via separate orders and netting. Always check the platform rules.
Why did a market resolve “wrong” even though the word was said on video?
This happens more than you might think. If the word is audible on a clip but the clip isn’t an accepted source for settlement, the platform may not use it to confirm the outcome.
