NFL Public Betting Consensus Percentages & Splits

How to Use NFL Public Betting Percentages to Make Picks

Here are some popular ways people use public betting percentages to help make NFL picks:

Finding the Sharp Money

Professional bettors and players who wager a lot won't have a dramatic effect on the Bet % number but have a disproportionate effect on the Money % number since they make much larger bets than the average joe.

By looking at the percentage of bets and percentage of the money on a game, you can get an idea of where these big bettors are placing their money.

If you see a side with a large positive differential in the percentage of money on a side and the percentage of bets on a side, it may be a good bet to make. For example, if the Eagles have 75% of the money but only 40% of the bets (+35% differential), this indicates that there are large bets on the Eagles.

People use this betting strategy on spread, total, and moneyline bets—all of which you can see below.

Fading the Public

Another popular betting strategy that the above betting splits can help with is fading the public. This strategy involves fading (betting against) teams that have a higher percent of the total bets on them. For example, if the Ravens have 80%+ of the bets, you would bet the other side. 

But here’s the catch: it doesn’t always work. In fact, NFL favorites had an incredible run in 2024, winning 71.8% of games (their best mark since 2005) and covering the spread 53.9% of the time (the best since 2017). Even bettors who regularly fade the public had a tough time finding an edge.

That’s why, if you’re going to use fading the public as a strategy, it’s smart to also track the percentage of money. Sometimes the sharp money is aligned with the public side, in which case it might be better to pass—or even ride with the public.