Broncos @ Seahawks – Week 1 MNF Picks & Betting Preview

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What a way for Russell Wilson to start the next chapter of his career. On the road, in the place where he led his former team to tremendous success including a Super Bowl.

The crowds that cheered him at every home game will surely still respect him but will be staunchly against any of his successes on Monday Night.

Fans get one heck of a storyline for the first Monday Night Football game of the season and bettors get some good value on a number of plays.

  • Time: 8:15 pm ET
  • Location: Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington
  • TV: ESPN/ABC
  • Weather: Clear with a high of 67°
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Spread Pick – Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks Week 1 MNF

Russell Wilson joins a Broncos offense with a number of playmakers at all of the skill positions.
 
Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy could prove to be one of the most lethal wide receiver tandems in the league now that they have a capable arm throwing them the call. Big Al (Albert Okwuegbuna) at the tight end spot is another player who should take a step forward this year and be a reliable target for Wilson.
 
Javonte Williams is a popular pick to breakout at running back this year after a dazzling rookie campaign. The Broncos also return Melvin Gordon who still has some gas left in the tank and can help mentor Williams as he grows into a star RB.
 
You also have to account for Russell Wilson’s legs, of course. Though he is 33 years old, he still can escape the pocket and take off downfield when necessary.
 
Though the Seahawks should have a pretty good defense this year, it’s hard to imagine their offense keeping up with Wilson and the Broncos.
 
Seattle will start Geno Smith in the opener as he replaces Wilson. No disrespect to Geno but he is not nearly the leader or QB that was. Wilson is a future HOFer and Geno will be lucky to have his job come midseason. Chris Carson retired due to a neck injury and the backfield will be committee-based for a majority of the time.
 
Key Trends:
  • Denver is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
  • Denver is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on field turf.
  • Seattle is 3-6 straight up in their last 9 games at home.

THE PICK: Broncos –6.5. We are expecting Russ to light the night up here and rout his former team. Take the Broncos and the points.

Total (Over/Under) Pick – Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks Week 1 MNF

The total here opened at 41 and has steadily grown to 44. Typically, this is a concern, but in this case, we see it as getting a cushion as we believe the total is going to finish under that initial 41 points anyway.
 
The Broncos were #2 in the league last season allowing just an average of 18.9 ppg. Here, they are facing Geno Smith and a new Seattle offense that is completely in flux.
 
The Seahawks were just 16th in the league last year in scoring and that was with Russell Wilson at the helm. The stout Denver defense should be able to hold these Seahawks to under their average from last season.
 
Conversely, the Seattle defense was not as strong as Denver's but was respectable and 12th in the league in points allowed. The Denver offense is going to better and better as the season goes and Russell Wilson and his weapons gel.
 
However, in the first game of the season in a tough environment, we believe Seattle will be able to contain the Denver offense enough to keep this total from going over the number.
 
Key Trends:
  • Under is 7-1 in Broncos last 8 games as a road favorite.
  • Under is 7-2 in Seahawks last 9 games as an underdog.
  • Under is 8-3 in Broncos last 11 games.
  • Under is 10-4 in last 14 Seattle home games against Denver.

THE PICK: Under 44. Look for Geno and company to struggle moving the ball and the Broncos to get off to a slow start while Russ and his weapons gel.

Prop Bets – Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks Week 1 MNF

Here are some props we like for this Week 1 MNF matchup:

Russell Wilson OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-128 at FanDuel)

As mentioned above, we are expecting the Broncos to cover tonight and a big night out of Russell Wilson who will be playing in Seattle as an opponent for the first time in his career.

He will want to show Pete Carroll and the Seahawks fans what he is capable of with trustworthy weapons.

The line of 1.5 TDs seems a bit low. While it is juiced up a big around -130 at most books, it seems like it should be no problem for Russ to throw at least 2 TDs.

Russell Wilson OVER 12.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at BetMGM)

There is a reason why this prop is juiced up a bit. That is because the oddsmakers know that it will take Russ just two or so carries at the most to get over this number.

Once the pocket breaks down for the Broncos, Russ will use his mobility to pick up easy yards and as always, he’ll stick that ball out an extra yard or 2 as he heads out of bounds.

Rushing for 13 yards should be no issue for Russ. Pound the over.

DK Metcalf UNDER 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110 at FanDuel)

The void that Russell Wilson left will weigh heaviest on DK. Geno Smith will not be able to get the ball out to DK enough and in the spots where he will be able to make defenders miss and pick up yards after the catch.

DK is the lone weapon on this Seahawks offense and the Broncos defense will be looking to shut him down and force anyone else to beat them.

Look for DK to have a quiet night and take the under for his receiving yards.

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Bill Christy

Bill Christy brings an analytic and data-driven approach to his handicapping while also taking into consideration the public’s opinions. He has a strong background in College Football, College Basketball, and the NFL, but has been successful in all sports he has handicapped. Bill is always looking for an edge to deliver value to his readers.