There are only four teams left fighting for the Lombardi Trophy, and we'll know who will be playing in Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans by around 9:30 pm ET this Sunday night.
We went 1-0-1 in our Divisional Round picks, hitting on the Under in the Chiefs/Texans game and pushing on the Eagles -6 against the Rams.
We have just one best bet for the Conference Championships, but we absolutely love it. We also have some prop bets for you, though we're not counting them as our “best bets.”
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Philadelphia Eagles -6 vs. Washington Commanders – Sunday, 3 pm ET on Fox
The Eagles will host a very familiar opponent in the Commanders, with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line.
These two teams split in the regular season, but the Commanders’ win came at home in a game that Jalen Hurts left with a concussion in the first quarter. The Eagles actually led that game by 13 points going into the fourth quarter, but the defense fell apart, and they were outscored 22-6 at the end of the game, leading to a 36-33 loss.
The Eagles won the game in Philadelphia by a score of 26-18 but were more dominant than the final score suggests, outgaining the Commanders by 170 yards.
While Jalen Hurts may be a little banged up, the Eagles’ formula has been to rely on star RB Saquon Barkley to carry the load, and I would expect more of the same Sunday.
Barkley has absolutely dominated the Commanders this season, rushing for 296 yards and 4 touchdowns in their two meetings. The Commanders defense ranks 30th against the run, so expect the Eagles to give it to Barkley early and often on Sunday.
This will be a tough spot for Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels. He has had trouble against the Eagles defense this year, throwing 3 interceptions in his two starts against them. The Eagles have the best defense in the league, including ranking first against the pass, allowing under 175 yards per game.
Finally, this will be the fourth consecutive road game for the Commanders, compared to the fifth straight home game for the Eagles—a factor that not many people are considering but will undoubtedly have an impact.
Look for the Eagles to take care of business and get the win and cover on Sunday afternoon, punching their ticket to New Orleans.
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NFL Conference Championships Prop Bets
Eagles vs. Commanders – Sunday, 3 pm ET on Fox
Either team to attempt a 2-point conversion (+125)
It’s worth a flyer on this one, especially given the extra-point kicking woes of Eagles kicker Jake Elliot.
Nick Sirianni has been known to be aggressive with going for 2, and it wouldn’t surprise if they did it at some point Sunday.
And, of course, there is always a chance it will be necessary for either team to try it because of the score late in the game.
Saquon Barkley UNDER 2.5 receptions (-164)
This one is a little pricey, but the Commanders are good against the defending passes to running backs.
Barkley had 2 catches in their last meeting at home and none in their loss on the road this year.
If the Eagles want to pass it out of the backfield, I expect them to look towards Kenny Gainwell. Given how bad the Commanders are against the run, it would make sense for Barkley’s touches to come on the ground.
Eagles team receptions UNDER 16.5 (-110)
Jalen Hurts completed 17 or more passes only 3 times since the Eagles Week 5 bye. Their identity has morphed into a full-fledged running team, and that will continue to be true against the Commanders’ 30th-ranked rush defense.
The Eagles are averaging just 14 receptions per game in their two playoff games. With Hurts being banged up with a knee issue, I don’t expect him to be asked to do too much on Sunday, and he shouldn’t have to with Saquon in the backfield.
Saquon Barkley 140+ Rushing Yards (+139)
Barkley went over this number in both games against the Commanders this year. He has gone over this number in 3 of his last 4 starts and seems to be getting better as the season goes on.
If you really want to have some fun, Saquon to run for over 200 yards is at +841. He did it last week, and against the Commanders’ 30th-ranked run defense, it’s definitely a possibility again on Sunday.
Chiefs vs. Bills – Sunday, 6:30 pm ET on CBS
OVER 5.5 punts (-120)
The Chiefs offense is not as good as they have been in recent years. They are averaging 3.5 punts per game this year and forcing 3.5 punts per game, on average.
The Bills, on the other hand, are averaging 3 punts per game and forcing teams to punt just under 3 times per game.
These two teams punted the ball 7 times in their regular season meeting, so we are getting some value here, given that Baltimore did not punt at all last week against the Bills.
James Cook OVER 13.5 rush attempts (-114)
Cook has become a go-to player during the playoffs, averaging 20 carries in their 2 playoff games. Look for that trend to continue in the AFC Championship game, as the Bills want to control the clock and keep Mahomes on the bench.
Khalil Shakir OVER 5.5 receptions (+116)
Shakir is the clear-cut favorite choice of Bills QB Josh Allen. He has more than double the receptions of the Bills second-leading pass catcher, WR Mack Hollins, who has 31 receptions.
Shakir had 8 catches in the first game against the Chiefs and has 6 catches in both the Bills playoff games this year.
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