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Below you'll find our picks for the best bets to make Saturday and Sunday of the NFL Divisional Round of the 2022-23 NFL season. Remember, you can always compare NFL lines and odds by sportsbooks here.
Best Saturday & Sunday Bets – NFL Playoffs Divisional Round
Sometimes when it seems too easy, it just might be, but in this case, a Kansas City and Philadelphia 6-point teaser is a great bet. In both games, you are moving the favorites down through the key numbers of -7 and -3.
Kansas City has already beaten Jacksonville this season by a score of 27-17 and Philadelphia has beaten the New York Giants twice. Once by a score of 48-22 and again in Week 18 by a closer score of 22-16.
Both teams have the advantage of earning the bye week in their respective conferences and a week of rest after a long season is more advantageous now than ever.
For the Eagles, it allowed QB Jalen Hurts to get fully healthy from a late-season shoulder injury. He was not even included on the Eagles' injury report. It also allowed All-Pro offensive lineman Lane Johnson to rest as he prepares to play through an injury in the postseason.
The Eagles have one of the top defensive units in the league and Giants QB Daniel Jones should face an onslaught of pressure from the Eagles Saturday. While the Giants looked good on offense against the Vikings, keep in mind the Vikings are ranked near the bottom of the league in defense. It will not be as easy Saturday night and the Giants offense won’t be able to keep up with a fully healthy Eagles offense.
The Chiefs have not been great against the spread this season, but have always found a way to come out on top, with 13 of their 14 wins coming by at least 3 points.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 53 – Saturday, 4:30 pm
After coming back in spectacular fashion in what looked like a sure-fire loss to the Chargers last week, the Jaguars are looking to perform another miracle as they face the number one seeded Chiefs.
This game is poised to be perhaps the least-competitive game of the weekend, with the Chiefs as heavy favorites as they set their sights on the AFC Championship Game. Of course, that obviously sets the stage perfectly for an upset of epic proportions, but let’s be realistic here, the Chiefs are just too good, and the Jaguars are just too young and inexperienced for that to happen.
What could happen, however, is that this game could end up being relatively low scoring. I see two possible pathways that this game could go and both of them seem like they could produce a less-aggressive offensive game than we are used to seeing for games involving these explosive offenses (Chiefs put up 29.2 points per game and the Jaguars put up 23.8 points per game).
The first pathway is perhaps the most likely. It is one in which the Chiefs take control early and break the spirit of the Jaguars offense, resulting in a blowout. Think about a game like what we saw last Monday with Dallas and Tampa. The Cowboys played great early and Tampa couldn’t muster much offense after that, resulting in a 31-14 game. The Chiefs actually did this in Week 18 against the Raiders in a game with a similar score of 31-13.
The other pathway would make for a much more exciting game. It’s one that would involve the Jaguars implementing the “chip away” approach that won them the game in the second half last week by slowing the pace of the game down on offense whilst limiting big plays on defense. This game would resemble the 24-17 Ravens at Bengals game last week and could result in a potential upset for the Jaguars.
Either way it ends up, I have a feeling that the final score is going to be less than 53. I just don’t think we will see a 30-pointer by either of these teams unless it’s a Chiefs blowout win, in which case the under still has a good chance of hitting
Buffalo Bills -5 vs Cincinnati Bengals – Sunday, 3 pm (Competing picks)
The Bills played probably their worst game of the year last week but still managed to pull out the 34-31 win over the Dolphins.
The only reason the game was close was because Josh Allen threw two interceptions and also lost a fumble that was returned for a touchdown. Other than a 4th quarter touchdown drive of 75 yards, the Dolphins did not have a scoring drive of longer than 38 yards.
The Bills offense did put up 34 points and over 400 yards of offense, and defensively they played well, allowing just 231 yards and 3.3 yards per play for Miami.
This line is an overreaction to a less-than-stellar performance by the Bills. Given the emotional few weeks they had been through leading up to the game, one can chalk it up as a one-time event.
Expect Josh Allen to get back to taking care of the ball and dominating opposing defenses as he has in the past.
The Bengals escaped with a 7-point win against the Ravens and needed a 98-yard fumble return to do it. So while they did not look good Sunday either, the line adjusted more because the Bills played a tighter against a team they were expected to blow out with their 3rd string QB.
Expect the Bengals to have trouble moving the ball against the Bills, who have one of the best defenses in the league. The Bengals may have a tough time running the ball and protecting Joe Burrow with some injuries on the offensive line.
Play Buffalo -5 on Sunday, as I expect them to win by at least a touchdown.
Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 @ Buffalo Bills – Sunday, 3 pm (Competing picks)
In what should be the most anticipated game of the weekend, we see a rematch of a game that was unfortunately called off after just half a quarter after the tragic injury of Bills safety, Damar Hamlin. Fortunately, Hamlin seems to be on the road to a miraculous and full recovery, and now we get to see these two powerful teams face each other in what should be a very competitive and potentially emotional game.
Both the Bengals and the Bills are red hot and just narrowly avoided getting upset at home last week to a divisional rival playing a backup QB. The Bengals turned a 98-yard scoop and score into a win against the Tyler Huntley-led Ravens, and the Bills fans came through late last week to bail them out of a potential loss after they forced the Dolphins to call all three timeouts and then get pushed back five yards on a crucial down for a delay of game due to the absurd noise in the stadium.
You could argue that both these teams could easily have been eliminated last week, but that is not to say that they shouldn’t be here. The Bills might be my Super Bowl favorites due to their crazy 10.5-point differential per game that elevated them to a dominant 13-3 season.
Meanwhile, the Bengals proved that despite early season struggles, their team is also a clear top 5 team in the league with a 6-point differential per game and an offense that boasts three legitimate top-tier receivers and a running back that is always in the Pro Bowl conversation.
These are two very similar teams playing in an atmosphere that is bound to be intense. In addition, the playoffs have been extremely competitive recently, even going back to last year. This game screams “all-time classic” and I think we may see a field goal or lower end up being the final difference in the score.
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers OVER 45.5 – Sunday, 6:30 pm
I don’t do this very often, but I’m going to go against logic for this pick and data. The strength of these defenses and the clear concerns for both of these offenses would normally lead me to take the under, but given how these playoff games have gone and how cold my picks have been recently, I have to go against my instinct to always trust the numbers.
Let’s talk about the numbers, because in this one, they paint a very clear picture.
Both of these teams ranked in the top five in defense (49ers are first giving up only 16.3 points per game, and the Cowboys are fifth giving up 20.1 points per game), and last week they only gave up 37 points combined.
There is also the matter of their offenses, which are statistically very good (49ers are sixth in the league with 26.5 points per game, and the Cowboys are fourth with 27.5 points per game), but have shown signs of a potential slowdown. The 49ers got off to a very slow start last week, as Brock Purdy made some throws early that made him look more like what you would expect from a rookie who was Mr. Irrelevant and has only played six games in the league, before he really turned it on in the second half.
If that slow start happens again in this game, the Cowboys defense might have the talent and poise to keep control in the second half unlike the Seahawks last week. The Cowboys showed their weakness on offense in the last few weeks of the regular season before turning it around last week, but it was against a Buccaneers defense that looked out of whack and lethargic. You can safely assume the much-better 49ers defense won’t come out like that.
With all that said, you would assume that I would go with the under, but logic and data have seemingly failed me the last few weeks, and there is an offensive intensity that has permeated through these playoffs, leading to big scores put up on the scoreboard. For those reasons, I’m going with the over.
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