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Last week, we landed in the green with a solid 4-3 NFL picks record across our opening line picks and best bets. Now, as we jump into the second half of the season, we're all about keeping that winning energy going.
We've got a killer lineup this week: 5 picks covering moneylines, spreads, and totals. Let's see if we can keep this good thing rolling and rack up some more wins.
Below you’ll find our picks for the best NFL bets to make on Sunday (11/12) for Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season. Remember, you can always compare NFL lines and odds by sportsbooks here.
Best NFL Week 10 Betting Picks
Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline (+145) vs. San Francisco 49ers – 1 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
The 49ers run the ball on over 50% of their plays this season. They join the Ravens as the only 2 teams to run more than they pass. This makes sense, given Christian McCaffrey's dominance and their impressive O-line, but they may need to change strategies this week.
The Jaguars allow only 3.6 yards per run this year (4th best in the NFL), and they force teams to throw the ball on over 65% of their plays (2nd highest in the NFL) given how dominant their rush defense is.
The 49ers' pass offense is usually incredibly effective, but it's so good because they are able to set it up with the run. If the Jaguars can force the 49ers to throw the ball, just like they've done all season with other teams, they can drive down the efficiency of the 49ers' typically top-tier pass offense.
This has been the playbook for defenses playing the 49ers over their last 3 games. They've seen their run play percentage drop from 55% to 60% per game in their 5-0 start to the low 40s% in their last 3 games, which have resulted in 3 straight losses. They've scored only 17 points per game these last 3 games compared to over 33 points per game in their first 5 games.
The Jaguars have a great chance to continue this trend of bad 49ers offensive performances. If they can stop the run and limit the pass efficiency, they can undoubtedly outscore the 49ers over 60 minutes. The Jaguars have been great offensively during their current 5-game-win streak, and there is nothing pointing to that stopping anytime soon. The Jaguars are set up for success at home this Sunday. They are an amazing underdog pick.
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Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers – 1 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
This is a meeting between 2 teams heading in different directions.
The Jaguars have won 5 in a row to improve to 6-2 on the year, meanwhile after starting the season 5-0, the 49ers have dropped 3 straight games.
The biggest problem for the 49ers has been on offense, where after averaging 33.4 points over their first 5 games, they are averaging just 17 points in their last 3 games.
49ers QB Brock Purdy is definitely showing some second year regression in recent weeks, having thrown just 3 touchdowns compared to 5 interceptions in his last 3 games.
Statistically the teams are about evenly matched. On offense, the 49ers average 376.6 yards per game and the Jaguars average 341.4 yards per game. Defensively the 49ers give up 315 yards per game and the Jaguars give up 342.8 yards per game.
But the Jaguars do have the third-best rushing defense in the league, allowing just 79.3 yards per game. That could slow down 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey and put even more pressure on the struggling QB Purdy.
Grab Jacksonville +3.5 at home Sunday afternoon.
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New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys UNDER 39.5 – 4:25 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
This game could go one of two ways: the Giants' defense could ball out and give the offense just enough leverage to keep them in a low-scoring game, or the Cowboys get out in front early and bleed the clock as the Giants offense flounders around for 60 minutes.
In either scenario, the score remains relatively low. The Giants' defense has proved that they are decent enough to keep a team at or under 30 points offensively, even while getting zero support on offense.
If (and it's a big if) the Giants can get something going on offense, it would likely involve long drives and a lot of ticking clocks; I don't know if we would see 2 or more touchdowns by both sides.
When we go back and look at Week 1 when these teams played each other, we see that the conditions on the field actually accounted for at least 2 of the Cowboys’ 5 touchdowns. With this game in Dallas under the Dome at Jerryworld, we shouldn't see the same type of scoring dominance by the Cowboys that we saw in that 40-0 win.
As for the likelihood that the Giants put up some points, I should point out that the Giants are down to their third-string QB compared to Week 1 when their offense was completely healthy.
Unless the Giants can create some sort of Angels in the Outfield type miracle that turns around their offense, I would say that the under is always going to be the safe play in Giants games. This game is no exception, even with the Cowboys offense that scores over 27 points per game.
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New York Giants UNDER 10.5 Team Points @ Dallas Cowboys – 4:25 pm
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
The Giants head into this division showdown against the Cowboys in a really tough spot at the QB position. They lost QB Daniel Jones to a season ending ACL injury and backup QB Tyrod Taylor is already on IR with a rib injury. That means undrafted rookie Tommy DeVito will get the start for the Giants.
The sample size on DeVito is small, but extremely unimpressive. When forced in to action against the Jets, he completed 2 of 7 passes for negative 1 yard. Things got slightly better against the Raiders last week when he forced in to action again. He completed 15 of 20 passes and threw a touchdown, but also threw 2 interceptions.
The Giants offense wasn’t very good with Jones at QB, averaging only 11.2 points per game. Now without Jones and facing a tough Dallas defense points will be at a premium for the Giants offense this weekend.
Dallas is third in the league in yards allowed, giving up just 288 yards per game. The Giants are last in the league offensively, putting up just 268.9 yards per game.
The Giants have scored over 10 points just 4 times this year. When they played Dallas to open the season they were shutout 40-0. They may score at some point Sunday, but it won’t but enough to get break 10.5 points, so play the Giants team total UNDER 10.5 on Sunday.
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New York Jets @ Las Vegas Raiders UNDER 37 – 8:20 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
The Raiders put up 30 points on the Giants last week, but that appears to be a fluke, as they only average 17.3 points per game. With Aidan O'Connell at quarterback and three-fifths of their offensive line hurt, the Raiders offense likely won't make a habit of scoring 30 or more points, especially against a great Jets defense that has given up only 19.5 points per game this season.
As for the Jets' potential offense, I think it is pretty apparent that Zach Wilson isn't the answer, and if he does turn his fortunes around, it will be with a different one during a different year.
Without anything going in the passing game, they'll have to rely on Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook to get something going, and they could potentially get a few scores that way against the weak run defense of the Raiders, which has given up 138.7 rushing yards per game this season.
If the Jets can get a rhythm going in the run game, they could try and shorten the game by bleeding the clock on long drives, which could easily lead to a low-scoring game.
Neither of these teams is a stranger to low-scoring contests; they have a combined 5-12 over/under record and often undershoot the target by double digits.
This game should be no different than the countless others this season with teams that are average to below average. I don't see it being a big scoring contest. Play Under 36 on Sunday night.
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