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We had a slightly negative week in Week 10, going 3-4 on our Sunday Best Bets. Let's see if we can get back to profitability in Week 11 with some more spread and total picks from our team of experts.
Below you'll find our picks for the best bets to make on Sunday of Week 11 of the NFL season. Remember, you can always compare NFL lines and odds by sportsbooks here.
Sunday Best Bets Season Record: 48-33-2 (+15.78 units)
Best Sunday Bets – NFL Week 11 Picks
- New Orleans Saints –2 vs. Los Angeles Rams
- New York Jets +3.5 @ New England Patriots
- Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills OVER 49.5
- Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons OVER 48.5
- Chicago Bears ML @ Atlanta Falcons + OVER 48.5
- Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints UNDER 39.5
- Washington Commanders ML @ Houston Texans
New Orleans Saints –2 vs. Los Angeles Rams – 1 pm
The Rams have been one of the worst offensive-performing teams the entire season and now have to try and score without their leading WR Cooper Kupp who is out with an ankle injury.
Kupp has accounted for nearly 38% of the Rams offensive passing yards on the season, so it will not be easy to make up that production with a group of WRs in which none of them have over 30 catches on the season.
The Rams won’t be able to turn to their run game either to make up for losing Kupp. The Rams rush offense is the worst in the league with only 68.1 yards per game. The Rams are also 4th worst in the league scoring only 16.4 points per game.
The Rams should be getting Matthew Stafford back at QB, but given his level of play this year, it may not be the boost they were hoping for. He has thrown as many touchdowns as he has interceptions so far this season.
The Saints defense has shown some improvement over the past few weeks, including a shutout over the Raiders. So they should be able to limit the already struggling Rams offense.
The Saints offense averages over 22 points per game and should be able to put up some points against the Rams defense, which is also allowing around 22 points per game.
The Rams are a league-worst 2-6-1 ATS this year.
New York Jets +3.5 @ New England Patriots – 1 pm
When the New York Jets travel to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots Sunday, the Jets will seek revenge against their AFC East rival after falling at home to the Patriots 22-17 three weeks ago.
New England has history on their side entering the matchup. The Patriots have won 13 consecutive games against New York, tying the longest active win streak over a single opponent. New England has not lost to the Jets at home since the 2008 regular season, or Joe Flacco’s rookie year in the NFL.
The Jets have proven more than capable of knocking off the AFC East elite. Already, New York owns wins over division-leading Miami and last season’s AFC Championship game participant Buffalo. New York opened with +5.5 odds for this game, but oddsmakers closed the gap as public money was placed heavily on the Jets.
While the weather may be a factor in gameplay, both New York and New England have experience playing outdoors in chilly temperatures. Expect the Jets to keep this game close, losing by a field goal or less.
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills OVER 49.5 – 9:30 am
If this game ended up being played in Buffalo, you could have basically guaranteed that this game would be low scoring. The blizzard up in northern New York would have slowed the offenses significantly, but the Wednesday announcement that this game is being moved to Detroit has changed the dynamics significantly.
Before the announcement, the O/U was 41.5, now it’s at 49.5.
I really like the over, now that we know the weather won’t be a factor, just look at the potential scoring for just the Bills. They score the second most points per game with 27.8, and they should be hungry to get a big win after last week’s crazy game against the Vikings. They are also facing a very favorable matchup against a weak Browns defense that has given up the second most points per game in the league.
If the Bills run up the score as I expect, it will come down to whether the Browns can put up some points.
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons OVER 48.5 – 1 pm
The Chicago Bears defense has taken a big step back since they traded away Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn.
The Bears have given up over 38 points per game in their last 3 games.
Their offense has shown some improvement finally under Justin Fields as the season has gone along.
They have averaged 31 points per game over their last four games.
The Bears offense should continue to have success against a Falcons defense that is 6th worst in the league allowing 25 points per game.
The Bears are 7-3 to the over in their last 10 road games.
The Falcons have found some good success running the ball with rookie Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson. The Falcons have the 4th best rushing offense in the NFL and they get to face off against the Bears rush defense ranked 28th in the league giving up 142 yards per game.
Between the defensive struggles both teams have been having and the Bears recent offensive success this game has all the makings of one that will require a team to get into the 30s to win it.
Chicago Bears ML @ Atlanta Falcons + Over 48.5 – 1 pm (Double Pick)
I am very high on the Bears at the moment. I don’t care about the 3-7 record or the three-game losing streak or the fact that over those last three games, they have given up 115 points. I am putting all that aside and just focusing on the flashes of brilliance that we’ve been seeing offensively, especially in the run game.
Justin Fields has been a madman with the ball in his hands, and I don’t expect that to change against a fairly mediocre Falcons defense this week. He leads the team with 749 yards on the ground, and it seems that he is only getting better as the weather cools down.
The Falcons should have a decent opportunity to put some points on the board against a struggling Bears defense, but it’s not like this is an elite defense with unlimited offensive ability, Marcus Mariota is their quarterback after all, and we have seen that they have had a hard time getting over that 27 point plateau, which is a lot of points, but I have sneaking suspicion that if Justin Fields plays as well as he did last week, the Bears could very well put up a 30+ game.
I’ve got the Bears upsetting the Falcons, and the point total over 48.5.
Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints UNDER 39.5 Points – 1 pm
A pair of three-win teams limp into the second half of the regular season when the Los Angeles Rams travel to play the New Orleans Saints Sunday.
Los Angeles will be without the services of go-to WR Cooper Kupp, the NFL’s second-leading receiver this season in catches (75) and fifth-ranked in yards (812) as Kupp required ankle surgery. Rams QB Matthew Stafford returns to the starting lineup this week after missing the loss to Arizona due to concussion protocol.
New Orleans returns home for the third time in four weeks, looking to snap a two-game losing streak. The Saints once again will rely on veteran QB Andy Dalton despite a healthy Jameis Winston available. New Orleans will look to utilize Alvin Kamara more after earning a combined 26 touches in his past two games.
The Saints will be facing their third-straight game against one of the top-tier defenses in the NFL. With the Rams missing a key component from their offense, expect the Rams and Saints to make this game a low-scoring affair.
Washington Commanders ML @ Houston Texans – 1 pm
I’ve been on a bit of a cold streak the last week or two, it’s an inevitable occurrence that every bettor has to deal with every once and I while, and can be a tad discouraging, especially if you’ve been putting big money on these games.
The key to success in sports gambling, and honestly, most things in life, is how you handle these moments. Do you act irrationally and blow even more money, or can you keep your wits about you and keep making good, sound decisions? This is my good and sound decision.
A lot of times when you are on a losing skid, you sometimes just need a solid win, something to kickstart your mojo. This is, admittingly, not an easy week to do this. We have a lot of evenly-matched games, and the few games that are lopsided are so lopsided, that it’s not really worth it (Ravens vs. Panthers, Eagles vs. Colts).
This is a perfect game to get you back on track, a team that just won a game that they had little chance of winning (Commanders), against a team that has been consistently mediocre for the entire season so far (Texans). It’s also below -200, so the return is actually pretty decent.
As for statistical analysis, the Commanders lead the Texans in nearly every major statistical category including yards per game (both passing and rushing), points per game, points allowed per game, rushing yards allowed, and third down percentage. There is no statistical reason to pick the Texans. Take the easy win.
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