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We went just below .500 last weekend, going 2-2 on our Sunday Best Bets. Let's see if we can get back to profitability in Week 15 with some more spread, total, and moneyline picks from our team of experts.
Below you'll find our picks for the best bets to make on Sunday of Week 15 of the NFL season. Remember, you can always compare NFL lines and odds by sportsbooks here.
Sunday Best Bets Season Record: 60-47-2 (56.1%) | +12.52 units
Best Sunday Bets – NFL Week 15 Picks
Houston Texans +14.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs – 1 pm
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
The Texans come into this one off one of their better performances of the year in a 27-23 loss to Dallas in which they gave 10 unanswered to the Cowboys in the 4th quarter and were stopped near the goal line late in the 4th quarter to set up a Dallas game-winning drive.
The Chiefs come into this one off a 34-28 win over the Broncos in a game they led 27-0 and held on to late against the Broncos' backup quarterback.
The Chiefs have 10 wins, but they have not been as dominant as they have been in recent seasons. They have only won 3 games by double digits.
The Texans may have 11 losses on the season, but they have remained competitive in nearly every game. They have only lost by more than 2 touchdowns twice on the season and neither of those games has been at home.
Some key metrics show these teams are much closer than the records indicate. The Chiefs allow 22.9 points per game compared to the 24.2 allowed by the Texans.
The Texans have a better ATS record this season than the Chiefs. These teams don’t meet regularly, but in their last 5 games, the Chiefs are only 3-2 straight up and ATS against the Texans. Only one of the Chiefs' 3 wins was by more than 14 points.
The Chiefs' offensive may be explosive, but their defense is mediocre and that should allow the Texans to score enough to keep it within the number.
Detroit Lions @ New York Jets OVER 44.5 – 1 pm
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
If you would have told me that I would be excited about the offensive production in a game being quarterbacked by Zach Wilson and Jared Goff, I would have laughed in your face, yet here we are, looking at a game between two unlikely offensive juggernauts.
Over the last five games, the Lions have averaged 32.2 points per game, getting a big lift from a healthy O-Line and a receiving core highlighted by Amon-Ra St. Brown, who has been targeted 50 times over the last five games and has hauled in all but seven of them for a total of 499 yards, nearly 100 yards per game! Jamaal Williams has also continued to be a factor, scoring six times on the ground over this stretch, adding to his ridiculous season total of 14.
The Jets have also been rolling on offense, however, it doesn’t necessarily translate as well in terms of points due to their recent competition. Over their last six games, they have played The Bills (second-best defense) and the Patriots (fifth-best defense) both twice, which has lowered their perceived offensive potential and created an excellent opportunity for bettors like us.
The Lions are the second-worst defense in the league, giving up a whopping 26.7 points per game. When matched up against a similar defense in the Bears, (25.6 points allowed per game) the Jets scored 31 points on the back of a two-touchdown game for rookie Garrett Wilson.
The Jets' defense is decent, but no match for one of the hottest offenses in the league right now, this should be a shootout, no doubt about it.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 46.5 – 4:25 pm
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
The story of the season has been the offensive struggles of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They have the 5th worst-scoring offense in the league, averaging only 17.2 points per game. They really struggle on 3rd down converting just 38.1% of the time.
On the defensive side of the ball, Tampa is allowing only 19.5 points per game. They defend the pass well, allowing only 195.3 passing yards per game. That could be an issue for a Bengals offense that is dealing with some injuries at WR and TE. Bengals TE Hayden Hurst will be out with an injury. WRs Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are both questionable themselves with injuries.
The Bengals are also strong defensively, allowing just 20.4 points per game.
Both teams have been under teams consistently this year. The Bengals are 8-4-1 to the under and Tampa is an even better 10-3 to the under on the season.
The Bengals have only gone over twice in their last 10 road games and the Bucs are 4-1 to the under in their last five at home.
With Tampa having a strong pass defense, look for the Bengals to work the running game and keep the clock moving.
Look for the under trends to continue Sunday in Tampa.
Dallas Cowboys -3.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars – 1 pm
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
As a general rule, I typically don’t bet on the Cowboys, especially when they are the favorites. Their odds always get hyped up by their large fan base, and sportsbooks are slow to adjust for that factor, resulting in bets that never seem balanced in my opinion.
This week may be an exception, but the odds do seem to be moving in a less-balanced direction.
The Cowboys have been on fire lately, despite a scare last week against the lowly Texans that seems more like an exception rather than a trend. The Jaguars, on the other hand, have been stuck at the precipice of a breakout, looking good one week, but then falling apart in the next, their offense has been inconsistent and their defenses have been just plain bad over the last five games, giving up 27.4 points per game.
There is not much doubt in my mind that the Cowboys are going to win handily; their offense has been cranking out points like crazy (37.6 ppg in the last six games!), and their defense has been equally as dominant (16.25 ppg allowed over the last four games).
Given the usual tilt in sportsbooks toward the Cowboys, I had assumed that this would be a -7 spread or more for the Boys. Still, to my surprise, it was actually a much more modest spread, around 4 points on Wednesday. Now it has dropped to Cowboys -3.5 and I like it even more.
New England Patriots +2.5 @ Las Vegas Raiders – 4:05 pm
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
Both the Patriots and Raiders had season-defining games last week, each with a different result.
The Raiders lost in a heartbreaking defeat by a Baker Mayfield-led Rams team in a shocking upset that essentially ended the Raiders' season and slim playoff hopes.
The Patriots, on the other hand, strengthened their playoff chances with a couple of key defensive plays against the Cardinals, ensuring their seventh win of the season, and fourth of the last six games, only losing to the Vikings and Bills who are both 10-3 and 1st in their division.
Obviously, the Raiders aren’t just going to give up on these final few games, but will they be as motivated as the Patriots? I don’t think so.
Injuries may be the only thing going for the Raiders this week, with the Patriots' offense badly banged up and Josh Jacobs looking as though he will play, the Raiders may actually have an offensive edge in this game, but defensively is where this game will be won or lost.
The Patriots give up the sixth least yards per game in the league and have limited opposing scoring to just 18.4 points per game (fifth best in the league). The Raiders will need to lean on Josh Jacobs, who has been dealing with numerous injuries but should be good to go.
The Vegas passing game is likely going to struggle due to the Patriots' incredible pass rush that has 45 sacks on the season (third-best in the league). This should be a defensive win by a high-morale Patriots unit on a low-morale Raiders team.
I'll take the Patriots with the points and wouldn't be surprised to see them win outright.
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