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- Time: Sunday, Sept. 18, 8:20 p.m. EST
- Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
- TV: NBC, UNIV
- Weather: 72° and clear
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Two-time reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers leads the Packers (0-1) seeking to secure a seventh consecutive win against the Bears (1-0) Sunday night at Lambeau. Chicago is looking for its first win at Green Bay since a 17-13 win in 2015 but the Packers have dominated the series at home, winning 12-of-14 since 2008.
It is a new year, though, and the Bears have new hope. Chicago notched a 19-10 season-opening victory over San Francisco at soggy Soldier Field last week, while Green Bay struggled in its 23-7 loss at Minnesota—a second straight embarrassing week one loss (38-3 @ NO).
Aaron Rodgers was touchdown-less for the first time since Nov. 14 last season against Seattle and recorded his second lowest QBR (18.9) in two years. Justin Fields threw for two touchdowns in the win but struggled, completing only 42% of his passes.
After its 35-point week one loss at New Orleans last season, Green Bay won 13-of-14 games en route to the No. 1-seed in the NFC—so there isn’t panic in the Frozen Tundra just yet. But can Rodgers lead the Packers without Davante Adams?
The Packers are 9-0 after a loss under head coach Matt LaFleur, averaging 31.9 points per game.
Prediction: PACKERS 31, BEARS 20
Packers vs Bears Moneyline Pick: STAY AWAY
The Packers seem like a lock to win as they are 9-0 after a loss under Matt LaFleur and have recorded six consecutive wins against the Bears, but the moneyline value is just not there.
This is decent value on Chicago, but I would veer away from the ML both ways unless you have big money going all in on Green Bay or use the line in a parlay.
Packers vs Bears Spread Pick: GREEN BAY -10
As of Friday night, Green Bay comes in as 10-point favorites on PointsBet with some other books stretching the line as high as 11. Most lines opened between 8.5 and 9.5.
While the Packers struggled to move the ball against the Vikings last week, I expect Rodgers and company to record a complete game offensively. Chicago’s defense played great against Trey Lance in a monsoon…but he is not Aaron Rodgers and there won’t be another monsoon.
The Packers should move the ball well and force Fields into a turnover or two. Green Bay covering seems like the move as Rodgers has owned Chicago and Matt LaFleur is arguably the GOAT coming off a loss. Take the points on Green Bay.
Betting Trends
- The Bears are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games.
- The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
- The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last six games against Green Bay.
Packers vs Bears Total Pick: OVER 41.5
I expect a closer, lower-scoring game near 42 if the weather is bad but it looks like it will be mostly clear and it won’t be a tsunami like last week in Chicago.
With that said, look for a higher-scoring game Sunday night. The Bears have scored 27.5 ppg in their last two games at Lambeau, including last season’s 45-30 shootout win for the Packers.
Take Over 41.5 in this primetime matchup.
Packers vs Bears Prop Pick: QB Justin Fields OVER 35.5 Rushing Yards
This is arguably the prop lock-of-the-week as Fields recorded 35+ rush yards in 6-of-7 starts to end last season. He recorded 43 and 74 rushing yards in two starts against Green Bay in that stretch. Look for him to run 10+ times this week and easily surpass 35.5 in a high-scoring affair.
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