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After an exciting start to the NFL season with a lot of familiar faces dominating and some up-and-comers breaking out, we've started to get an idea of how the season may shape up.
With that said, there are often a lot of overreactions in Week 3 that you can take advantage of to find some value. After a hot 14-5-0 start to our Sunday Best Bets series, let's hope we can keep it rolling.
Below you'll find our picks for the best bets to make on Sunday of Week 3 of the NFL season. Remember, you can always compare NFL lines and odds by sportsbooks here.
Sunday Best Bets Season Record: 14-5-0
Best Sunday Bets – NFL Week 3 Picks
- Los Angeles Rams –3.5 at Arizona Cardinals (Double pick)
- LAR/ARZ OVER 48.5 – Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
- Cincinnati Bengals –6 at New York Jets
- Los Angeles Chargers –3.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars (Competing pick)
- Jacksonville Jaguars ML (+245) at Los Angeles Chargers (Competing pick)
- Kansas City Chiefs –5.5 at Indianapolis Colts
- Quick prop picks
Los Angeles Rams –3.5 at Arizona Cardinals (DOUBLE PICK) – Bet at BetMGM
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
The Cardinals managed to pull a victory from the jaws of defeat in week 2 against the Raiders.
The Cardinals needed 2 touchdowns and a pair of two-point conversions to get to overtime before winning the game on a fumble return for a touchdown as the Raiders were driving to set up a potential game-winning field goal.
The Rams meanwhile defeated the Falcons 31-27 in a game where the final score is quite deceiving compared to how competitive the game actually was. The Rams were up 31-10 in the 4th quarter before allowing a touchdown, having a punt blocked for another touchdown and then taking a safety late in the game.
The Rams have owned the Cardinals in this series recently, winning 9 of the last 10 games.
They have also won 7 straight games in Arizona. All but one of those wins has been by more than a field goal.
This is a good time for the Super Champions to continue to get things on track for the 2022 season.
Arizona has the second worst pass defense in the league so far this season. Things won’t get easier as they try to defend one of the top receivers in the league Cooper Kupp, who has 24 catches on 29 targets and 3 touchdowns to go along with 236 receiving yards in his first two games.
Cardinals QB Kyler Murray has struggled with accuracy early in the season, completing under 64% of his passes.
Look for the Rams to continue to have the upper hand and take care of business against the Cardinals on Sunday.
Bill Christy is a seasoned sports bettor who operates his own handicapping business. Follow Bill on Twitter at @LarrysLocks2.
After losing 31-10 in their opening game of the season, the defending champions defeated the Falcons at home 31-27. They avoided a comeback attempt by Marcus Mariota and his teammates.
This Rams team has been heavily reliant on the pass. They rank 15th in the league in passing offense but have yet to get a solid running game going. Cam Akers saw almost no time in Week 1 but picked up the slack last week. However, they are still averaging just 58.5 rushing yards. They are last in the league in rushing offense but have made up for it with a stellar passing attack.
The Chiefs obliterated these Cardinals in Week 1 by 23. Things didn’t get better through the 1st three-quarters of their next game. They trailed 23-7 before Kyler Murray put on an absolute show. He used not only his arm but his legs as well to get them back in the game. The Cards scored 22 unanswered points to end the game to pick up the 29-23 win over Vegas on the road.
This is a game that the Cardinals can not afford to fall behind. Unfortunately for them, that has been their MO through 2 games and we believe the same will happen this week. The problem the Cards will have in their comeback attempt here is that the Rams will continue to put up points on a mediocre Cardinals defense.
Game Trends
- Rams are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games against Arizona.
- Rams are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona.
- Cardinals are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.
- Cardinals are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games.
Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals OVER 48.5 – Bet at PointsBet
Bill Christy is a seasoned sports bettor who operates his own handicapping business. Follow Bill on Twitter at @LarrysLocks2.
Both the Rams and Cardinals have been putting up points and yet have been able to truly reach their scoring potential. This game lines up for both of them putting up a good number of touchdowns.
The Cardinals have proven that they are incapable of containing good offenses as they allowed 44 points to the Chiefs and 23 points to the Raiders.
The Rams have not been super strong on defense either. They gave up 31 to the Bills and 27 to the lowly Falcons. Both defenses are going to allow the offense to move the ball and score points letting this over come through with relative ease.
Game Trends
- Over is 6-1 in Rams last 7 games on grass.
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games following a ATS win.
- Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games following a straight up win.
Cincinnati Bengals –6 at New York Jets – Bet at BetMGM
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
The Bengals may be off to a 0-2 start to the season, but there is a clear gap in talent between the Bengals and the Jets. The Bengals two losses on the season have come by a combined 6 points.
For a team using a backup QB in Joe Flacco, the Jets are relying way too much on the passing game, with Flacco having thrown 103 passes in just two games.
The Jets needed two touchdowns late to complete a comeback against the Browns last week and would have lost had Browns running back Nick Chubb taken a knee instead of scoring a touchdown when the Jets were out of timeouts late.
The Jets defense has not been good, allowing 27 points a game to start the season.
The Bengals problem has been turnovers, they are -4 in turnover differential through two games. The Jets however only forced two turnovers all season, so if the Bengals can take care of the ball they will have plenty of opportunities to score.
Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Burrow should be able to get back on track against a Jets defense that allows 7.6 yards per completion and is allowing opposing QBs to complete over 68% of their passes.
The Bengals have been great against the spread on the road, covering 5 of their last 6 road games. The Bengals did not lose 3 consecutive games at any point last season.
Look for that trend to continue in 2022. They are the more talented team and will get back on track with a win and cover in week 3 against the Jets.
Los Angeles Chargers –3.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars – Bet at PointsBet
Bill Christy is a seasoned sports bettor who operates his own handicapping business. Follow Bill on Twitter at @LarrysLocks2.
Jacksonville is coming off a dominate 24-0 win over the visiting Indianapolis Colts. This came a week after they lost on the road to Washington 28-22. The Jags led 22-14 early in the 4th quarter before Carson Wentz and the offense came back with a vengeance.
The Chargers are coming off the heels of a road loss to the Kansas Chiefs 27-24. Justin Herbert hit Mike Williams for a touchdown that gave the Chargers a 17-7 lead with 10 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. From there, the Chiefs dominated the rest of the way, outscoring the Chargers 20-7.
The Jaguars looked great while the Chargers looked pedestrian last week. Those two factors have combined to push the public towards the Jaguars. However, we believe that the Chargers are a far superior team and the one touchdown spread here is a gift. Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense is going to be an enormous step up for a Jaguars defense that has faced just Carson Wentz and a washed-up Matt Ryan.
We are expecting the Chargers to dominate this game from start to finish in all facets of the game. In fact, don’t be shocked if the Chargers put up more passing yards than the Jaguars put up in total here.
Game Trends
- Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
- Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games.
- Chargers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.
- Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Jacksonville Jaguars ML (+245) at Los Angeles Chargers – Bet at BetMGM
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
I don’t think of myself as a bold bettor, I try to stick to relatively “safe wagers”, and I don’t often go for the massive underdog, but this game is a little different. The circumstances of this game may be perfect for an upset that could net you one heck of a return on investment if you take the risk.
The Jaguars are the obvious underdogs, they are on the road against a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and they are still in the shadow of a season where they went 3-14 and selected first in the NFL draft. It’s not necessarily surprising that the moneyline on the Jaguars is +245, but I think it’s a very real possibility that the Jaguars end up winning this thing.
Trevor Lawrence has played better and better this season and their new weapons: Christian Kirk and Evan Engram have combined for 269 yards and two touchdowns so far. As for the running game, I think this might be where the Jaguars could shock the Chargers (and viewers). Travis Etienne has yet to provide much of a spark with only 67 rushing yards in two games, but the Chargers defense could give him a great chance to have a breakout game, as they have given up 5.1 yards per carry far more than their 2.7 offensive rushing yards per carry.
If the Jaguars offense can rally around their young core of Lawrence, Kirk, Etienne, and Engram, they may have a chance to outscore the Chargers who will be relying on an injured Justin Herbert and a receiving core that may or may not have Keenan Allen. This is very troublesome for an offense that hasn’t been able to get anything out of their run game, which has only produced 151 yards on 55 attempts and zero touchdowns.
I think the Jaguars have a very good chance of capitalizing on an injured Chargers offense and the momentum they have after shutting out the Colts 24-0.
Kansas City Chiefs –5.5 at Indianapolis Colts – Bet at PointsBet
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
The Colts barely came away from week one with a tie against the Texans, (rated second worst team behind the Falcons on ESPN’s preseason power rankings) and then got shutout by the Jaguars (worst record in the NFL last season) last week. To say the Colts’ season has started out rough would be an understatement.
Matt Ryan has only one touchdown compared to his four interceptions in just the first two games of the year. The running game, which should be the strength of this Colts offense, has only produced one touchdown as well, even though Jonathan Taylor has an impressive 215 yards on the ground, it hasn’t helped them produce much in terms of points yet this season.
The Chiefs on the other hand, have been there usual great selves. Pat Mahomes has put up great numbers (595 yards and 7 touchdowns with a 127.9 passer rating) and their defense has been able to keep opponents to just 22.5 points per game.
This is a classic situation where it seems almost too good to be true for the Chiefs to blow out the Colts in this one. Could it be a trap? My answer is a big fat NO.
The Chiefs win this game by double digits, it is an easy decision, do not overthink something this simple. Matt Ryan and the Colts have shown no sign of life, while the Chiefs and Pat Mahomes have shown no signs of slowing down. This is a no-brainer on a spread that has fallen a few points over the last few days.
Quick Prop Picks for NFL Sunday Week 3
Bill Christy is a seasoned sports bettor who operates his own handicapping business. Follow Bill on Twitter at @LarrysLocks2.
James Robinson Longest Rush OVER 13.5 Yards (-110 at FanDuel) @ Los Angeles Chargers
Robinson has trended over on this play through the 1st 2 weeks of the season. In fact, he has shattered this number in both Week 1 and Week 2. The 22-yard run he broke against Washington was bested last week against the Colts where he was sprung for 37 yards.
Travis Etienne OVER 2.5 Receptions (+100 at FanDuel) @ Los Angeles Chargers
Etienne has 5 receptions on 7 targets this season and in a game that could be pass heavy on both sides, Etienne could see even more targets this week. Head coach Doug Pederson likes utilizing running backs in the passing offense and Etienne seems to be the guy that is going to fill that role.
Trevor Lawrence OVER 248.5 Passing Yards (-105 at FanDuel) @ Los Angeles Chargers
Lawrence is coming off a performance where he went 25-30 for 235 yards and 2 touchdowns. Now, this was in a game where the Jags led the whole way and really didn’t need to pass that much. In his previous game, where he trailed most of the way, Lawrence put up 275 yards on 42 pass attempts. We expect this game to be closer to that Week 1 game for Lawrence and the Jags where he is forced to put up more passing yardage in a comeback attempt.
Allen Robinson Anytime TD (+160 at FanDuel) @ Arizona Cardinals
Robinson picked up his 1st touchdown of the season last week against Atlanta. This week, in Arizona, Robinson will ample opportunities to get a score in a game that could end up in a shootout. He almost had a 2nd last week, but will make up for that miss this week.
Darrell Henderson Jr. OVER 38.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at FanDuel)
Henderson has exceeded this number in both games this season. Even with Cam Akers contributing more and getting more carries than Henderson last week, Henderson was able to average 4.7 yards per carry on his way to 47 yards on the day.
Cooper Kupp OVER 8.5 Receptions (+105 at FanDuel) @ Arizona Cardinals
After a historical season in 2021-2022, Kupp has not lost a step. Through the 2 games that opened the season, Kupp has been targeted 29 times. Of those 29, he has reeled in 24 receptions. For us to grab 8.5 on this prop seems like a discount and plus money is just a bonus. Kupp will continue to get targets and turn them into receptions as he is the best in the league right now.
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