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- Time: Sunday, Oct. 2, 8:20 p.m.
- Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
- TV: NBC, UNIV
- Weather: 84° and Sunny
Tom Brady meets Patrick Mahomes for the sixth time Sunday night in a Super Bowl LV rematch. All five previous matchups have been high-scoring and high-stakes with Brady holding a 3-2 edge, including the Super Bowl LV beatdown in Tampa.
This season, both quarterbacks are in uncharted territory playing with new skill players across the board.
Mahomes lost Tyreek Hill in the offseason but added JuJu Smith-Schuster to an arsenal that includes still Travis Kelce and a plethora of speedsters. While Brady is playing without Gronk for the first time in his career, but arguably has the best receiving corps in the league (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Julio Jones).
Even with the loaded rosters, each offense has sputtered at times to start this season. The Bucs are plagued with injuries on offense and rank near the bottom of the league in scoring (17.0 ppg, 22nd) while the Chiefs are coming off a sloppy and sluggish loss to Indianapolis last week.
Regardless of the difficulties, this showdown highlights Week 1 and is one of the premier regular season matchups of the 2022 NFL season.
Can the elite Tampa Bay defense continue to carry its struggling offense, or will Kansas City bounce back and secure a huge primetime victory on the road?
Prediction: CHIEFS 24 BUCCANEERS 17
Chiefs @ Buccaneers Moneyline Pick: KC -107, TB -107
Despite the loss of Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes has been stellar as he is putting up career numbers to start the season (67.9% completion rate, 112.9 passer rating). The Chiefs pass defense is a weakness once again but with TB plagued by injuries it might not be a huge issue.
The Bucs are still trying to find its offensive identity and might be without Julio Jones (knee) and Chris Godwin (hamstring) once again. The offensive line is the biggest issue for TB as protecting Brady and the running game have been tumultuous.
The Buccaneers boast the 25th-ranked rushing offense (86.1 ypg) and rank close to last, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry but Brady is the GOAT and has managed the offense well.
Look for a close, low-scoring affair Sunday night as both offenses struggle to move the ball—with KC securing the dub.
The pick: CHIEFS MONEYLINE
Chiefs (-0.5) @ Buccaneers (+0.5) Week 4 SNF Spread Pick
Taking the spread in this one is fairly useless with most books offering a pick’em. If you can find underdog value on KC take it, but don’t shy away from an even line on the Chiefs against a struggling Tampa Bay offense.
The Pick: STAY AWAY
Chiefs @ Buccaneers Week 4 SNF Total (Over/Under 45.5) Pick
While all but one matchup (SB LV) between Brady and Mahomes has gone over this total, don’t expect the same in this contest. The Chiefs are scoring 29.3 ppg but didn’t look great against a good Chargers defensive front and was a mess last week against the Colts.
The Buccaneers boast one of the league best defenses and I expect them to have another solid game. There is just a lack of trust in the offense—even with Brady at the helm—because of the injuries at wide receiver and across the offensive line. I expect this to be one of the safer Unders of the week.
The Pick: UNDER 45.5
Chiefs @ Buccaneers Week 4 SNF Prop Pick of the Week
(TB) Tom Brady – Under 265.5 passing yards (-125 at FanDuel)
Tom Brady surpassed this mark for the first time last week throwing for 270 yards in a 14-12 loss to Green Bay. In the previous two games, he threw for 212 and 190 against the Cowboys and Saints.
The KC secondary is fragile but with Leonard Fournette running well and limited weapons on the outside, look for Brady to be held under 266 passing yards here.
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