NFL Week 5 Picks – Sunday Best Bets

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We continued our Sunday Best Bets profitable streak in Week 4 and are looking to keep things rolling in Week 5.

There are a lot of heavy favorites and other interesting matchups this week that make for a fun betting Sunday.

Below you'll find our picks for the best bets to make on Sunday of Week 5 of the NFL season. Remember, you can always compare NFL lines and odds by sportsbooks here.

Sunday Best Bets Season Record: 27-15-1 (+11.71 units)

Best Sunday Bets – NFL Week 5 Picks

Baltimore Ravens –3 vs Cincinnati Bengals (8:20 pm)

Dave Rathmanner
Dave Rathmanner

Dave Rathmanner is the Founder of Odds Assist. While he bets on more sports than he likes to admit, the NFL is his passion and where his expertise lies.

To start, it's important to shop around for the best line with this one. There are a lot of Ravens –3.5 lines out there, so make sure you can get Ravens –3 or else I wouldn't take this.

The Ravens are looking to bounce back after a second-half collapse against the Bills in Week 4. After this happened in Week 2 against the Dolphins, they responded with a big 37-26 win over the Bengals.

While it's always hard to bet against divisional dogs—especially considering the Bengals swept the series last year—I expect the Ravens to pull out a close one at home. They are much healthier than they were in these matchups last year and I think they're the better team at this point.

San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers Under 39.5 (4:25 pm)

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

The 49ers and their league-leading defense, allowing only 11.5 points per game, travel to take on a Panthers team that struggles to score. They have averaged only 19.5 points per game on the season against defenses ranked 9th, 14th, 15th, and 28th in points allowed.

The 49ers are 2nd against the run, which will make it hard on the Panthers biggest weapon running back Christian McCaffery.

That will force the Panthers to rely on Baker Mayfield, who has looked bad, to start the season. He has completed only 54% of his passes through four games.

The 49ers should have success running the ball against a bottom-10 run defense in Carolina. That will be the game plan as they continue to work QB Jimmy Garoppolo back from off-season surgery. Garoppolo saw no preseason action and did not play until Trey Lance got hurt in Week 2.

The 49ers offense has not been nearly as impressive as their defense. The offense is only averaging 17.8 points per game, tied for 5th worse in the league.

The 49ers have played to the Under in 9 of their last 10 games and the Panthers have gone Under in 6 of their last 10 home games.

Look for the under to cash again Sunday between these two teams.

San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers Over 39.5 (4:25 pm)

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

A truth we know about NFL football is that offenses typically start the season a little slower than defenses. Just by the nature and complexities of offenses, we usually see less offensive efficiency and effectiveness early in the year, with the first month being especially bad. Now that we are in Week 5, we should see an increase in point scoring.

The average points per game this season has been 21.95 compared to 22.83 last season, which doesn’t sound like that big of a difference, but you have to remember that late-season cold weather games always weigh the average down. This is the start of the high-scoring window from Week 5 (Oct. 9th) to Week 12 and the Thanksgiving games (Nov. 24th).

My prediction is that during this period, there are going to be far more Overs than Unders, including this game with the 49ers going to Carolina to face the Panthers. Despite good defenses on both sides, this should be a 40+ point game.

Let’s be honest, Baker Mayfield has played horribly over the first four games of the season, (186.8 yards per game, 5 total touchdowns, 3 interceptions) leading an offense that ranks dead last in the league in yards per game (262.3 YPG). Now he’s facing a team that has a defense that has allowed the second-fewest yards (234.5 YPG) in the league. It doesn’t look good for the Panthers, but it might mean that this could be an early blowout.

I expect the 49ers to pull ahead early in a big way, and for the Panthers to get garbage time scores in a last-minute comeback bid. Jimmy G and Deebo are going to strike early and try and capitalize on the momentum from their great performance on MNF last week against the Rams.

Dallas Cowboys Moneyline (+198) @ Los Angeles Rams (4:25 pm)

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

I’m no Cowboys fan, but even I have to appreciate how well their team has managed without Dak Prescott. Cooper Rush has led them to three straight victories, each one more decisive than the last. This is largely due to their dominant defense that has held opponents to just 15.5 points per game while racking up 15+ sacks and four picks over the first four games.

You set this defense up against a Rams offense that has struggled mightily so far, only putting up 17.5 points per game, allowing 16 sacks, and giving up nine turnovers. You would think that the Cowboys would be favorites, yet they are actually 5.5-point underdogs.

Vegas is betting that Cooper Rush flops under the pressure of the star-studded Rams defense and that the Rams offense will finally find a way to protect Matt Stafford and get some offensive rhythm going. I’m not so sure that is going to happen.

Cooper Rush is no Dak Prescott, but he does remind me a lot of Jimmy Garoppolo in the fact that he finds ways to win games. He hasn’t thrown a pick yet this season and he throws for a solid 60% completion rate. Sometimes that’s all you need.

As for the Rams potentially finding their offense, I wouldn’t hold my breath. All three of their starting interior linemen are questionable to play on Sunday, and even if they do play, at what level of play will we actually see from them? I don’t expect them to figure their problems out this weekend, maybe down the road in a few weeks if they can stay healthy, but not quite yet.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Under 46 (1 pm)

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

The Dolphins and Jets meet in an AFC East matchup between two teams very familiar with each other.

The Dolphins will be without QB Tua Tagovailoa who is in concussion protocol. That will force backup Teddy Bridgewater into the starting role.

Other than one crazy 4th quarter against the Ravens in Week 2, this Dolphins offense has struggled to put up points. They have averaged just 18.66 points per game in their other games and things are not likely to improve with Tagovailoa out.

The pressure will be on Teddy Bridgewater to perform as a passer since the Jets are allowing less than 110 yards per game against the run.

The Dolphins defense has been good, giving up under 23 points a game. In Week 3 they held the high-flying Buffalo Bills to just 19 points.

Despite getting quarterback Zach Wilson back, the Jets are not a strong offensive football team. And the pressure will be on Wilson to perform. The Jets have one of the worst run games in the league and they will be facing a Dolphins defense that is allowing barely over 100 yards on the ground per game.

The Dolphins have gone Under in 7 of their last 10 road games and the Jets have gone Under in 3 of their last 5 home games. And 8 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams have produced less than 46 points.

Look for the under trend to continue Sunday.

Teaser: Minnesota Vikings –1.5, San Francisco –0.5

Dave Rathmanner
Dave Rathmanner

Dave Rathmanner is the Founder of Odds Assist. While he bets on more sports than he likes to admit, the NFL is his passion and where his expertise lies.

This is an easy one for me. I expect both the Vikings (vs Bears) and 49ers (@ Panthers) to win their games easily—so getting them both under a FG is great.

With the Vikings, you're crossing the key numbers of 7 and 3. Though you only are crossing 3 with the Niners, they just have to win outright for this to hit.

Make sure to shop around to see where you can get the best odds. Ideally, you would find a –120 but I would play this to –125.

>> Check odds at PointsBet or BetMGM

Kenny Pickett Over 17.5 Rushing Yards @ Buffalo Bills

Dave Rathmanner
Dave Rathmanner

Dave Rathmanner is the Founder of Odds Assist. While he bets on more sports than he likes to admit, the NFL is his passion and where his expertise lies.

Talk about a tough game for Kenny Pickett's first full start. The rookie QB has to travel to Buffalo to take on arguably the best team in the NFL.

While I'm not touching the spread in this game with the Steelers being 14-point underdogs, I do expect them to be trailing a lot of the game.

This means that Kenny Pickett should be dropping back to pass a good amount, which should lead to scrambling when he faces pressure.

Last week, Pickett had 15 rushing yards despite not playing the full game. On top of that, he had 2 rushing TDs—showing that he and the Steelers are not afraid to let the rookie run.

I think Pickett smashes this prop. Hammer Over 17.5 rushing yards.

>> Check odds at PointsBet, BetMGM, or FanDuel

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