NFL Week 6 Picks – Sunday Best Bets

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We had our first losing week Sunday Best Bets of the season in Week 5 and are hoping to turn things around for Week 6.

This week has some of the best matchups we've seen all year with the Chiefs and Bills battling it out for supremacy of the AFC, the Cowboys and Eagles playing Sunday night in a divisional showdown, and many other juicy games.

Below you'll find our picks for the best bets to make on Sunday of Week 6 of the NFL season. Remember, you can always compare NFL lines and odds by sportsbooks here.

Sunday Best Bets Season Record: 27-15-1 (+11.71 units)

Best Sunday Bets – NFL Week 6 Picks

San Francisco 49ers –4.5 @ Atlanta Falcons (1 pm)

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

The Falcons have been much better than expected to start the 2022, despite just a 2-3 record.

However, the 49ers are really finding their form in recent weeks, having won two in row by double digits as Jimmy Garoppolo continues to get more comfortable running the offense after taking over in Week 2.

And the 49ers defense has been the best in the NFL allowing just 249.2 yards per game and 12.2 points against per game. They also have a league-leading 21 sacks.

All of this will spell trouble for the Falcons offense, which will be without top playmaker Cordarrelle Patterson who continues to recover from a knee injury.

The Falcons offensive numbers are a bit misleading they are towards the top of the league averaging 23.6 points per game, but when you dig deeper they actually have the 9th worse offense in the league in terms of total yards, gaining only 331.4 yards per game.

Travel will not be a factor for the 49ers who stayed on the East Coast after their win against the Panthers last week. In fact, the 49ers have had quite a bit of success on the East Coast lately, winning 10 of their last 11.

Look for that to continue this week as they win and cover against the overmatched Falcons.

San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons UNDER 45 (1 pm)

Ernie Horn
Ernie Horn

Ernie Horn is a veteran newspaper writer with 25 years of experience. As a bettor, Ernie has exceeded 60% of his predictions over the past three years.

It’s early in the season, but the San Francisco 49ers defense looks legitimate—if not historic. San Francisco leads the NFL in total defense this season at 12.2 points per game. 

The 49ers also top the league in rush defense, limiting opponents to 71.4 yards per game and three yards per carry.

Don’t expect the Atlanta Falcons to break these trends. 

Although the Falcons rank fourth in the league with 164 rushing yards per game, Atlanta lacks a legitimate passing threat because Marcus Mariota is a placeholder QB. Sooner than later, Desmond Ridder will take over the position for Atlanta.

Expect a low-scoring slog of a contest with this 1 pm kickoff. Atlanta’s defense is competent and will keep the game close against the 49ers’ middling offense under Jimmy Garoppolo. Expect a final score around 24-17, cashing the Under 45.

Cincinnati Bengals –1.5 @ New Orleans Saints (1 pm)

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

The Saints are completely broken. Their injury list looks like the menu at the Cheesecake Factory, it’s ridiculous.

Just about everyone is questionable and have either missed practice or only had limited practice this week. This includes Jameis Winston; the receiving trio of Thomas, Landry, and Olave; Swiss Army knife Taysom Hill; and the majority of their secondary including Marcus Maye, Marshon Lattimore, and Paulson Adebo.

The Bengals on the other hand have seemed to get better and better each game, despite a close loss to a great Ravens team last week. They’ve got a great defense that has limited opposing teams to just 17.8 points per game, and an outstanding passing game headlined by the Burrow and Chase connection. They are ready to feast on the banged up Saints secondary.

This seems to be a no brainer.

The Saints offense is riddled with injuries and the Bengals have only given up six total touchdowns all season. If you want to win games you are going to need to score touchdowns—unless you're the Colts against the Broncos—I just don’t see the Saints doing that. I expect them to lose big time.

Look for the Bengals to cover under a FG at ease.

Carolina Panthers @ Los Angeles Rams UNDER 41.5 (4:05 pm)

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

The Panthers will be without starting QB Baker Mayfield in this one, which means it will be up to PJ Walker to the lead the Panthers offense, which is already worst in the league putting up only 271.4 yards per game and 18.6 points per game.

Expect the Panthers to run a lot and rely on Christian McCaffrey.

Believe it or not, the Rams offense is actually scoring even less than the Panthers, averaging only 16 points per game and looking very predictable in trying to get the ball to Cooper Kupp every chance they get.

Defensively the Rams have been solid, allowing only 321 yards per game.

Neither team takes care of the ball very well, the Panthers are -2 in turnover differential and the Rams are -5. This will likely cause some scoring opportunities to be wasted by both teams at some point during the game.

4 of the 5 Rams games have gone Under the total this year and 8 of their 10 ten home games overall have gone Under.

The Panthers have seen the Under cash in 3 of their 5 games this year.

Look for both teams to struggle to score again Sunday and for this one to end under the total.

New York Jets ML (+290) @ Green Bay Packers (1 pm)

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

Never underestimate the impact of momentum. The Jets are coming off of a huge 40-point explosion of offense against the Dolphins last week and are on a two-game win streak following Zach Wilson’s return which has coincided with an uptick in their defensive efficiency.

The Jets have simply been pretty dang good as of late.

Meanwhile, in Green Bay, a loss last week overseas, where they didn’t score at all in the second half—besides a strategic safety late in the game by the Giants—is not what they needed after a fairly unimpressive start to their season where they surprisingly won 3 games in the first 4 games.

Aaron Rodgers has been less than his typical-MVP self, not to mention the thumb injury which could always be reaggravated at any time. Aaron Jones has picked up some of the slack, but you can bet the Jets will gameplan for him.

I like the underdog Jets in this one.

Quinnen Williams is going to continue to dominate on defense. The young trio of Breece Hall, Zach Wilson, and Garrett Wilson, as well as Elijah Moore, and the two tight ends, the Jets have too much talent to fall apart against a team that is struggling as much as the Packers.

I like the big underdog to pull off the upset at nearly 3/1 odds.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals OVER 50.5 (4:05 pm)

Ernie Horn
Ernie Horn

Ernie Horn is a veteran newspaper writer with 25 years of experience. As a bettor, Ernie has exceeded 60% of his predictions over the past three years.

After a decade in the NFL, Seattle Seahawks QB Geno Smith is getting a second chance to prove his mettle. The veteran has completed 75% of his passes for 1,305 yards and 9 TDs to start the year. The offense is humming, scoring 103 points in the last 3 games.

The Arizona Cardinals are looking to replicate this offensive pace. Cardinals QB Kyler Murray has shown sparks of that offensive firepower, racking up 457 yards passing, 68 yards rushing, and 4 total TDs in the previous two games. Look for WR Marquise Brown and TE Zach Ertz to have big performances.

Neither defense has been stingy against the pass. Both Seattle and Arizona are yielding at least 250 yards per contest through the air and have surrendered 8 passing TDs to opponents.

Expect this game to produce final scores for both the Cardinals and Seahawks in the mid-30s, easily eclipsing the total of 50.5 in this afternoon game.

Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants UNDER 44.5 (1 pm)

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

The Ravens this season, have been a high-scoring, thrilling team to watch. Their games have averaged 51 total points per game, and they have scored 16 touchdowns while giving up 14 for an unbelievable 30 touchdowns combined in just the first 5 Ravens games.

With that being said, you can see a noticeable trend in their scoring over the last few games. They hit their watermark in Week 2, falling to the Dolphins 42-38. In Week 3, the score was 37-26 against the Patriots. Then they faced the Bills in a thrilling 23-20 game, and just last week they won a nail-biter against the Bengals 19-17.

It's a clear downward trajectory as teams learn how to slow down their offense this season and their defense slowly improves.

This week, the trend should continue as they play the run-first Giants, who have started the season unexpectedly well as they win games by controlling the time of possession (31:07 minutes per game of offense) and playing great defense (18.6 points allowed per game).

The Giants are going to use Saquon and their dynamic running attack to try and deflate the momentum of the Ravens' dynamic running game.

Look for this game to stay Under the total of 44.5

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