NFL Week 7 Picks – Sunday Best Bets

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We had a solid day last Sunday, going 5-2 on best bets highlighted by a huge Jets moneyline pick.

Despite a lot of the league's best teams being on bye this week (Eagles, Bills, Vikings), there are still a lot of interesting games on the board and some great value.

Below you'll find our picks for the best bets to make on Sunday of Week 7 of the NFL season. Remember, you can always compare NFL lines and odds by sportsbooks here.

Sunday Best Bets Season Record: 35-21-1 (+15.99 units)

Best Sunday Bets – NFL Week 7 Picks

Tennessee Titans –2.5 vs Indianapolis Colts (1 pm)

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

The Titans have reeled off three straight wins after back-to-back losses to open the season.
They will also be healthy and well rested coming in to this game off of a bye week.

The Colts have looked like a different team at home as opposed to on the road where they have struggled, getting a tie against the Texans, being shutout by the Jaguars, and winning a game 12-9 in Denver without scoring a touchdown.

The Colts have a lot of injury concerns. It looks they will have a full complement of running backs as Jonathan Taylor is set to return from an ankle injury, but whether or not he is 100% and how many touches he will get remain to be seen. The Titans also have one the best run defenses in the league allowing just over 103 yards per game.

The Titans have the worst pass defense in the league, but the passing game is not the strength of the Colts. QB Matt Ryan has thrown 7 interceptions so far on the season.

The Titans have had success the Colts in recent seasons, winning five of the last seven games between the two teams, including a win earlier this month in Indianapolis.

Now laying less than a field goal at home, look for the Titans to get another win off the bye week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers –11.5 vs Carolina Panthers (1 pm)

Ernie Horn
Ernie Horn

Ernie Horn is a veteran newspaper writer with 25 years of experience. As a bettor, Ernie has exceeded 60% of his predictions over the past three years.

Don’t be surprised to see luggage outside of Bank of America Stadium Sunday when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the Carolina Panthers.

The reason?

It’s pretty clear at this point that Carolina has packed up their bags and called it quits for the 2022 season.

Firing head coach Matt Rhule originally looked like a team trying to turn around their season by changing the voice in the locker room. Now, Rhule’s firing looks like a merciful ending.

Trading Christian McCaffery for a host of draft picks from the San Francisco 49ers, while completely understandable, signals the Panthers are prepared for a full rebuild.

Tom Brady and the Buccaneers smell blood in the water. Expect the veteran QB to rebound from early-season missteps to make this game ugly fast.

Tampa Bay will rely on Leonard Fournette to take advantage of the Panthers’ 25th-ranked rushing defense late in this lopsided Buccaneers victory.

New York Giants +3 @ Jacksonville Jaguars (1 pm)

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

How is it that the 5-1 New York Giants are three-point underdogs against the 2-4 Jaguars? You tell me. I’ve watched every week as the Giants play small ball and out effort good teams time in and time out for a good chunk of the season, and now Vegas wants us to think that they will blow that streak to the Jaguars! It seems illogical, but let’s look into it anyway.

The Jaguars score only 23 points per game on average, but only give up 19 for a point differential of 4—slightly above the Giants point differential at 3.5.

Perhaps, more importantly, is the Jaguars' run defense anchored by new DE additions Foley Fatukasi and Roy Robertson-Harris up front and speedy young linebackers Devin Lloyd and Foyesade Oluokun. This group has given up only 536 rushing yards in six games and an average of just 3.6 yards per run.

This could jeopardize the Giants typical offensive attack and allow Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne more time with the ball.

With that being said, you have to remember that this Giants team is all heart, effort, and masterful game management. You can’t quantify that with stats or analysis.

The numbers say that they should be 1-5, but they’ve defied the odds so much so far, that I think I can safely say that this will be a close game deep into the fourth quarter. Regardless of whether they win, I think they cover the spread.

2-Team Teaser: Ravens –0.5 & Bengals -0.5

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

Going with 2 AFC North teams in a two-team teaser this week.

The Ravens come into this game 3-3 off another game in which they blew a double-digit lead in a loss.
The Ravens have the offensive firepower to score plenty of points against a Browns defense that ranks near the bottom of the league allowing 27.2 points per game.

The Ravens have had a lot of success against the Browns recently winning 7 of the last 10 meetings between the two teams.

The Browns do have a good offense capable of scoring some points, but when it comes down to it, Baltimore at home in a division game is a strong play. But let’s take the spread out of the equation here and get the Ravens down to PK in leg one of this teaser.

In the second leg, we are going with the Bengals at home against the Falcons.

Both teams come in at 3-3 on the season, but one team has legitimate weapons on offense and a track record of success and the other does not. It still does not feel like the Falcons are for real this season.

Despite being the top 10 in points per game scored, they are in the bottom 10 in yards per game.

Defensively it’s a tough matchup for the Falcons who have the second-worst passing defense in the league. That will spell trouble as they try and defend Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd.

The Bengals are the better team and should win this game Sunday. Tease them down to -1/2, just needing them to pick up a win for this leg to hit.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens Over 45.5 (1 pm)

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

Last week, the Ravens just fell short of the Giants with their slow offense and stifling defense. This week, they play a divisional against the Browns, and while that typically means better defense and less scoring, I think it will be the opposite in this game.

The average point total in Browns’ games this season is 51.9 and for the Ravens, it is 49.8. That tells you basically all you have to know, especially with an O/U of 45.5.

Both teams have compromised defenses, that is clear by now. Despite the obvious talent on that side of the ball, they’ve both been underwhelming, to say the least. The Ravens have been able to create turnovers but have forced only seven punts all year.

The Browns can’t stop the run game, giving up 131.5 rushing yards per game and 11 rushing touchdowns total. Thankfully for them as a team, they are able to neutralize that number with a very strong run game themselves, averaging 172 rush yards per game and 10 touchdowns throughout the year.

As for the Ravens, their offense is prolific as usual. The Giants slowed them down, but they shouldn’t face that same kind of resistance in this one.

Both teams seem to prefer running up the score and getting into a “rushing shootout.” Normally shootouts are based on great passing attacks that can get huge chunk plays and long touchdowns, this will be the same, but instead of throwing the ball, they will be running their way to a lot of points.

Detroit Lions +7 @ Dallas Cowboys (1 pm)

Ernie Horn
Ernie Horn

Ernie Horn is a veteran newspaper writer with 25 years of experience. As a bettor, Ernie has exceeded 60% of his predictions over the past three years.

Dak Prescott announced his return from a thumb injury Thursday evening as the Dallas Cowboys host the Detroit Lions in a rare non-Thanksgiving Day regular season matchup of the two teams.

The Cowboys look to rebound from their disappointing 26-17 loss against Philadelphia last week. While Ezekiel Elliott returned to form (13 carries, 81 yards, 1 TD), Dallas QB Cooper Rush suffered his worst outing as Prescott’s replacement. Rush first came in for the injured Prescott during the season-opening loss to Tampa Bay and has played exclusively since then.

Detroit, meanwhile, was obliterated by the New England Patriots 29-0 two weeks ago in their worst loss of the year. Moving the ball down the field was not the issue for the Lions as the team racked up over 300 yards of offense in the game. Finishing the drives, however, was a problem as Detroit turned the ball over four times on downs.

Expect the Cowboys to feed Elliott throughout the game to take pressure off Prescott in his first outing back. Between Dak’s rust and the Lions’ extra week to prepare, Detroit will keep this game close throughout and cover the spread.

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