NFL Week 9 Picks – Sunday Best Bets

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We had an up-and-down week in Week 8, going 3-3 on our Sunday Best Bets. Let's see if we can get back to profitability in Week 9 with some more spread and total picks from our team of experts.

Below you'll find our picks for the best bets to make on Sunday of Week 9 of the NFL season. Remember, you can always compare NFL lines and odds by sportsbooks here.

Sunday Best Bets Season Record: 42-26-1 (+17.55 units)

Best Sunday Bets – NFL Week 9 Picks

Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears UNDER 46 – 1 pm

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

The Miami Dolphins travel to Chicago to take on the Bears on what will be windy Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field. The winds will be 15-20 MPH with gusts even higher, which could make passing the ball challenging and also cause problems for the kicking games.

The wind issues should cause both teams to focus on running the ball more, especially the Chicago Bears who continue to have the worst passing offense in the league averaging just 126.9 yards through the air per game. The Bears are running the ball 64% of the time.

The Bears did make a trade for WR Chase Claypool to help the passing game, but with very little time to learn the Bears playbook and only a few practices under his belt, he is only expected to play a limited role in the game.

Bears QB Justin Fields continues to struggle completing only 58.5% of his passes and throwing 6 interceptions on the year. He has also been sacked 31 times already on the season.

The wind could really affect the Dolphins' game plan as they have the 3rd rated passing offense in the league, but the 5th worst rushing offense.

The trends also favor the under. The Bears have gone under in 7 of their last 10 home games and the Dolphins have gone under in 6 of their last 10 road games.

Play the under in this one Sunday afternoon.

Miami Dolphins –4 @ Chicago Bears (Competing Picks) – 1 pm

Ernie Horn
Ernie Horn

Ernie Horn is a veteran newspaper writer with 25 years of experience. As a bettor, Ernie has exceeded 60% of his predictions over the past three years.

The Miami Dolphins attempt to knock off their second NFC North opponent in as many weeks when they visit the Chicago Bears Sunday.

Chicago enters the game as the second-worst rush defense in the NFL, surrendering 1248 yards in eight games. While Miami does not employ a strong rushing defense, Raheem Mostert is capable of breaking big plays against this defense to capitalize on the Bears’ weakness.

The Dolphins rank among the league’s best rushing defenses, allowing just over 100 yards per outing this season. Much of Miami’s rushing yards were allowed in early season games as the Dolphins have held two of their last three opponents to under 85 yards rushing.

Miami needs that as the Bears are the league’s best rushing offense. Chicago QB Justin Fields (424 rush yards, 3 TDs) leads a run-first offense that has two rushers in Khalili Herbert and David Montgomery combining for 900 yards and seven TDs on the season.

Expect Miami to cover their spread for a second week in a row against the rush-oriented Bears offense. Miami will be able to run and pass at will with Tua Tagovailoa healthy again under center and should win by at least a touchdown over Chicago.

Chicago Bears Moneyline vs Miami Dolphins (Competing Picks) – 1 pm

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

When you look at this game, on the surface it seems like a pretty easy pick. The Bears got walloped last week by the Cowboys, and the Dolphins have won every game that Tua has played fully healthy. With Tua good to go this week, just like the last two, we should see a relatively easy win for Miami. Right?

Look a little further into the numbers and you will see that the Bears are in prime position to win this game.

The Dolphins needed a big comeback last week to survive the Lions and the week before that they scored only 16 points against the Steelers. These are not the outcomes of a team that is dominating, and they were games that were won almost exclusively because of the passing game. Much like the rest of the season, the Dolphins' run game has been subpar over the last few games. It is fifth worst in the league with only 88.1 rush yards per game.

The lack of a run game is troubling for the Dolphins in this game. The Bears will undoubtedly be able to limit the passing game as they have done all season. Their pass defense ranks 5th in the league with only 188 yards allowed through the air per game.

With the Bears young offense (now with the addition of Chase Claypool) seemingly getting better every game, I fully expect Justin Fields to come out of this game with an upset at home.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals OVER 48.5 – 4:05 pm

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

Two of the worst defenses in the league get together for a battle in the desert on Sunday afternoon as the Seahawks visit the Cardinals.

The Cardinals are 3rd worst in the league allowing 26.3 points per game and the Seahawks are tied for 6th worst in the league allowing 24.9 points per game.

The Cardinals are 10th worst in the league against the pass and that should spell trouble against a team like Seattle that has weapons like receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to work with.

Geno Smith continues to impress at quarterback completing nearly 73% of his passes and throwing for 13 touchdowns compared to only 3 interceptions this season.

When these teams met just a few weeks ago the final was 19-9 and the total was posted at 50.5. Despite that lower-scoring affair, the number for this one did not adjust much as the bookmakers appear confident there are points to be had between these two teams.
In the last game, there were seven trips inside the red zone but only one touchdown was scored, which is surprising given both teams rank toward the bottom of the league in red zone defense.

Seattle has gone over in 4 of their last 5 road games and Arizona has gone over in 3 of their last 5 home games.

Look for a lot more points this time between the two teams and take the OVER Sunday afternoon.

Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 42.5 – 4:25 pm

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

Two teams with vaunted defenses and underperforming offenses face each other in a game that both teams desperately need to win to get back on track.

With the extra intensity that usually results in a slower, more methodical game, plus the obvious defensive prowess of both teams, this game looks like it’s going to be a slog.

Both these teams have struggled to put points on the board (Rams with 16.9 points per game and the Bucs with 18.3 points per game) and that shouldn’t change in this one, especially given the defensive strength of both teams. The Rams have given up 22.4 points per game and the Bucs have given up 18.9 points per game.

Look for the under to hit in this one.

Cincinnati Bengals –7 vs Carolina Panthers – 1 pm

Ernie Horn
Ernie Horn

Ernie Horn is a veteran newspaper writer with 25 years of experience. As a bettor, Ernie has exceeded 60% of his predictions over the past three years.

Years of research conclude that NFL teams that play after a reduced rest period (less than six days in between games) fare no differently the following week than teams with a standard rest period.

Yet when the Carolina Panthers visit the Cincinnati Bengals Sunday, it will be the Bengals attempting to continue the success that Monday Night Football losers have the following week. Through eight games this season, the team that lost the previous Monday Night game is 6-2 overall against their next opponent. Those same teams are 5-3 ATS and with five games going under.

Cincinnati will be rebounding from its worst loss of the season when the Bengals return to Paycor Stadium. The Bengals were unable to get their running game going against the Cleveland Browns, falling to 4-4 on the year with the 32-13 loss to the Browns.

Carolina, meanwhile, self-destructed in improbable fashion Sunday in losing to the Atlanta Falcons 37-34 in overtime. The Panthers nearly secured the first win of the Steve Wilks coaching era but missed field goals and a silly penalty snatched Carolina’s victory out of the team’s hands.

While the spark that Wilks has provided for Carolina in his interim role is impressive, it’s hard to go against an emerging trend. Expect the Bengals to return to form and beat the Panthers by a final score of 27-17 Sunday.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 47 – 1 pm

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

The Raiders haven’t won many games, only two to be exact, but the one thing they have done is run up the score in nearly every game this season. Last week was the only Raiders game this season that didn’t total at least 40 points between them and their opponent. Before last week, the average Raiders game averaged just under 52 points per game, it now sits at just under 48 points per game.

The Raiders should spring back to life this week after their weak showing against the Saints last Sunday. In that game, Davante Adams was a non-factor, and let me tell ya, that doesn’t usually happen two weeks in a row. The Jaguars don’t have the same above-average secondary that the Saints have. In fact, the Jaguars have the 11th-worst pass defense in the league.

Speaking of pass defenses, the Raiders have the eighth-worst in the league and the eighth-worst defense overall as well. The Jaguars may be coming off a rough loss to the Broncos in England, but their offense is still just as explosive as ever, with the ticking time bomb of talent that is Trevor Lawrence ready to go off at any moment. This game could be his breakout game.

I think all signs point to a shootout in Jacksonville, both teams want to make up for the lack of offense last week, and give their offense confidence, we could see both offensive coordinators let their guys loose and draw up some big plays in this one, it should be fun.

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