Thursday Night Football Betting Picks

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Lines & Odds for the next Thursday Night Football Game

The long wait for another NFL game finally ends each Thursday night, breaking the excruciating three-day period with no football after Monday Night Football.

But who should you bet on for Thursday Night Football? To help out, we track our Thursday Night Football betting picks in this guide for every week of the NFL season.

Be sure to check out our full Thursday Night Football betting picks & previews guides for our full analyses and all TNF picks.

2022 TNF Picks Record
13-11-0 (54.2%)  |  +0.52 units

Past TNF Picks Articles

TNF Week 9 – Eagles @ Texans

Coming soon

TNF Week 8 – Ravens @ Buccaneers

By Rob O'Connor

Pick 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 (Best Odds at PointsBet)

The good news for Tampa Bay and QB Tom Brady is they have a great chance to get back on track against the Baltimore pass defense which ranks toward the bottom of the league allowing over 260 yards per game through the air.

Tampa clearly has the weapons to expose this weakness with receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. There is also a possibility they will get Julio Jones back from injury for this game. The Ravens have allowed 11 passing touchdowns on the season.

Tom Brady in the home underdog role is a dangerous spot for the opposition to be in as well. He is 10-2 ATS in his career as a home underdog.

The Ravens despite the reputation of having a high-flying offense have not put up more than 23 points in 4 consecutive games now. Those struggles should continue against a Bucs team allowing only 17.7 points per game.

The home team is 4-2 since Week 2 when travel and short weeks began playing a factor in these games.

Look for Tampa to get another win for the home team on Thursday night.

Prop Pick 1: Tom Brady Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-150 on BetMGM)

As mentioned above the Baltimore offense has struggled against the pass in 2022. Tom Brady has his choice of weapons on offense and the Bucs know they will need to score some points to win.

With Baltimore having a top-10 defense against the run, Brady knows this game will be on his shoulders to exploit the Ravens' weakness in the passing game.

While Tampa has some injuries at WR, the Ravens are without starting safety Marcus Williams who is out with a wrist injury.

Look for Brady to get over 1.5 passing touchdowns easily Thursday night.

Prop Pick 2: Lamar Jackson Over 61.5 Rush Yards (-115 on BetMGM)

This number is posted over 10 yards lower than Jackson is averaging on the season. Tampa has the 6th ranked passing defense in the league but is just middle of the pack when it comes to defending the run.

The closest thing the Bucs have faced to a true running QB this year is Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Falcons QB Marcus Mariota. Mahomes rushed for 34 yards on just 4 attempts and Mariota went for 61 yards on 7 carries.

Jackson is averaging over 9 rush attempts per game on the season.

With Tampa’s ability to defend pass Jackson will have to make some plays with his legs Thursday night, so take over 61.5 rush yards.

>> Read full Ravens @ Buccaneers Week 8 Picks & Betting Preview Guide

TNF Week 7 – Saints @ Cardinals

By Rob O'Connor

Pick 1: UNDER 44 Points (-107 on PointsBet)

Thursday Night Football has been consistently producing games that go under the total with 5 of 6 Thursday games going under so far in 2022. That trend should continue Thursday night when two banged-up teams—especially offensively—square off.

The Saints will likely use Andy Dalton at QB again as Jameis Winston continues to deal with a back injury. They should get Chris Olave back at receiver from a concussion, but they will still be without other top receivers Jarvis Landry and Michael Thomas.

These injuries have forced the Saints to become a run-heavy team. They have rushed for over 200 yards in each of their last two games.

The Cardinals' offense, on the other hand, has been all out of sync and they may or may not have running back James Conner who will be a game-time decision with a rib injury.

The Cardinals have averaged under 17 points per game at home this year. The Cardinals have only gone over the total twice in their last 10 games, while 3 of the last 5 Saints’ road games have gone under.

Prop Bet 1: Alvin Kamara over 63.5 Rush Yards (-113 on BetMGM)

When Kamara has been healthy he has had success running the ball. In his last two games, he is averaging over 100 yards on the ground.

The Cardinals' run defense has been worse at home than on the road. They have allowed 122 rush yards per game at home compared to just 60 yards per game on the road.

Look for Kamara to get plenty of touches given the injuries in the Saints' passing game and get over 63.5 yards.

Prop Bet 2: Zach Ertz under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-120 on BetMGM)

The Saints have done a fantastic job against the tight end in the early part of the 2022 season. They have only allowed a tight end to go for more than 45 yards once on the season.

They have managed to shut down Irv Smith, Cameron Brate, Kyle Pitts, and Hayden Hurst, so it’s not like the Saints' defense has been going against bottom-level tight ends.

In three home games, Ertz has gone over 45 yards only once. Look for that trend to continue in this TNF matchup.

>> Read full Saints @ Cardinals Week 7 Picks & Betting Preview Guide

TNF Week 6 – Bears @ Commanders

By Rob O'Connor

Pick 1: UNDER 38 Points on BetMGM

Offense has been hard to come by for these two teams through the first five games of the season. The Bears come in with the 6th lowest points per game at 17.2, the Commanders are right behind with the 7th fewest points per game at 18.

Given the Bears' preference to run the ball and the Commanders having to try and mix in more running plays to counteract the strong Bears pass defense this game should stay UNDER the total of 38 on Thursday night.

Chicago has gone under in 7 of their last 10 at home, while the Commanders have gone under in 6 of their last 10 overall.

Pick 2: Justin Fields UNDER 24.5 passing attempts (-135 on BetMGM)

Justin Fields is averaging only 17.6 passing attempts per game and hasn’t attempted more than 22 passes in a game this year.

He is lacking any weapons on offense at the WR position. Their leading receiver Darnell Mooney has only 10 catches on the year for 173 yards and 56 of those came on one catch.

With David Montgomery back and healthy the Bears focus will likely be on controlling the game on the ground. That should spell limited pass attempts for Fields, especially if Chicago is able to get out to an early lead.

Play Fields to throw under 24.5 passes in this one.

Pick 3: Cole Kmet OVER 2.5 Receptions (-150 at BetMGM)

In 3 of the 5 Commanders games this year they have allowed at least 3 receptions to the opposing team's top tight end. Look for that to continue Thursday night.

The Bears lack of playmakers at receiver has forced the offense to get Kmet more involved. He has 7 receptions over his last two games after not catching a ball in the first two Bears contests.

Look for him to continue to stay involved in the passing game this week.

>> Read full Bears @ Commanders Week 6 Picks & Betting Preview Guide

TNF Week 5 – Colts @ Broncos

By Rob O'Connor

Pick 1: UNDER 42.5 Points (also worth a play on Alternate total Under 37.5 (+176) on FanDuel Sportsbook)

Both teams enter this one off a short week and with injuries on offense. Colts running back Jonathan Taylor will sit this one out with an ankle injury. Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson is also planning to play despite an injury to his throwing shoulder. The Broncos will also be without top running back Javonte Williams who was lost for the season due to an ACL and PCL tear.

In addition to the injuries that could slow both offenses down, both teams have been trending to the Under this year. The Colts are 4-0 to the Under and the Broncos are 3-1 to the Under for the season. These are two of the three of lowest scoring offenses in the league, with Colts averaging just 14.3 points per game and the Broncos averaging only 16.5 points per game.

Pick 2: Russell Wilson UNDER 231.5 Pass Yards (-110) on FanDuel Sportsbook

Russell Wilson has struggled mightily to start the season, completing only 61% of passes. He will be facing off against a top ten Colts passing defense that is allowing only 207 passing yards per game. Facing a tough defense with an injured shoulder is not an ideal combination, look for him to go under his passing yards prop Thursday night.

Pick 3: Melvin Gordon OVER 70.5 Rush/Receiving Yards (-115) at BetMGM

The Broncos should feature Melvin Gordon as the clear-cut number 1 back with the injury to Javonte Williams. With Wilson banged up look for Gordon to get plenty of opportunities to touch the ball both on the ground and catching the ball from the backfield. He’s been averaging 47 yards per game in a complimentary role to start year, now that he is the go-to back in Denver expect him to deliver and get over 70.5 yards combined rushing and receiving Thursday night.

>> Read full Colts @ Broncos Week 5 Picks & Betting Preview Guide

TNF Week 4 – Dolphins @ Bengals

By Rob O'Connor

THE PICK: Bengals Moneyline at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Bengals are the healthier team heading into this one and it is a short week with travel for Miami. The matchup in the passing game is a major advantage for the Bengals who will find a way to pull out their first home win of the season Thursday night.

PROP PICK 1: QB Joe Burrow over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-162) at FanDuel Sportsbook

The Dolphins have given up 6 touchdown passes in 3 games. They have major issues in the secondary and will continue to be without cornerback Byron Jones as he recovers from an ankle injury and CB Xavien Howard is likely to play but is battling a groin injury. With all the weapons Burrow has at his disposal, getting 2 touchdowns against one of the worst pass defenses in the league is not a big ask. 

PROP BET 2: WR Tee Higgins over 62.5 receiving yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Tee Higgins is averaging over 6 targets and 4 catches per game this season and has been over 62.5 yards in his last two games. Facing an already weak Dolphins secondary that will be focusing heavily on stopping Ja’Maar Chase, Higgins will have plenty of opportunities to grab catches and yards in this one. 

>> Read full Dolphins @ Bengals Week 4 Picks & Betting Preview Guide

TNF Week 3 – Steelers @ Browns Picks

By Bill Christy

SPREAD PICK: Browns –4.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

While two games are a small sample size, we still have a better idea of who these teams are now compared to preseason. The Browns have been more offensive so far, averaging 28 points per game, good enough for 7th in the league. 

The Steelers, on the other hand, have been the opposite. While they have averaged just 18.5 points per game, they have also allowed the exact same number to opponents. The latter being good enough for 12th in the league.

TOTAL PICK: UNDER 38.5 points (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Something will have to give in this game and the public seems to be favoring the Steelers in the spread. So, it is no surprise that they are also on the Under here.

We are going to do something a bit unconventional and fade the public on the spread but tail them on the total. We have little wiggle room with this play but believe it is the right side of both.

PROP PICK 1: Jacoby Brissett UNDER 17.5 Completions (-115 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

Brissett has been solid to start the season for the Browns. In Week 1, he completed 18 of 34 passes as the Browns fought to come back late in the game. Last week, he was even better, going 22 of 24 on passes against the Jets.

The one thing the Browns realized at the end of the game, was that they needed to run more clock and they won’t make that mistake again here. In a game that should be a knock down drag out fight, Brissett’s attempts should be at a minimum here.

PROP PICK 2: Kareem Hunt OVER 42.5 Rushing Yards (-115 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

This may be our favorite prop of the evening. Hunt has gone for 58 and 46 yards in the first two games of the season. There is no reason to expect his number to go down this week.
Chubb will be used as the work horse and soften up the Steelers defense for Hunt to come in as a change of pace and pop off a couple long ones for us to cash this over.

PROP PICK 3: Harrison Bryant Anytime TD (+550 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

We are taking a flyer here on this prop. However, don’t write this play off just yet.
In the redzone, the Browns have targeted just four players and three of those players have been targeted twice. Bryant is one of those three but has yet to make the grab and cash in on the chance.

We believe he will get an opportunity or two this week as the Steelers will be trying to force passes in the redzone.

>> Read full Steelers @ Browns Week 3 Picks & Betting Preview Guide

TNF Week 2 – Chargers @ Chiefs Picks

By Rob O'Connor

THE PICK: UNDER 54.5 points. Compare odds here

Between the short week, offensive injuries, and competitiveness of two teams that are very familiar with each other look for the under trend to continue between these two teams. Take UNDER 54.5 on Thursday night.

PROP PICK 1: Austin Ekeler over 97.5 Rush/Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook

For the Chargers to have a chance in this game they will need to consistently get the ball into Austin Ekeler’s hands. Not only is he a dynamic running back, but a major threat to catch the ball out of the backfield.

Ekeler is clearly the lead back for the Chargers, getting the double rushing attempts of backup Sony Michel last week. Michel was not particularly effective when he got some chances, so look for the Chargers to even focus more on Ekeler this week.

PROP PICK 2: Austin Ekeler over 4.5 Catches (-136) on FanDuel Sportsbook

This prop is very much tied into the over combined total yards prop.

Ekeler has gone over 4 catches in the last 3 games in Kansas City and in 5 of the last 7 games against the Chiefs overall.

With Herbert not having one of his favorite targets in Keenan Allen, it will open more targets and opportunities for Ekeler. Look for him to take advantage and haul in at least 5 passes.

>> Read full Chargers @ Chiefs Week 2 Picks & Betting Preview Guide

TNF Week 1 Bills @ Rams Picks

By Rob O'Connor

TOTAL PICK: OVER 52.5 points. Compare odds here

This is a matchup between two of the highest-scoring teams in the NFL last season. The Bills averaged 28.4 points per game last season good for 3rd best in the NFL and the Rams were right behind them averaging 27.1 points per game good for 8th best. With two top-tier QBs facing off against defenses that struggled against top quarterbacks in 2021, points should not be hard to come by in this game.

PROP PICK 1: Allen Robinson 60+ receiving yards (-136) on FanDuel Sportsbook

With the Bills having injury issues at cornerback and having to pay a lot of attention to Cooper Kupp, it should allow Robinson to have a strong debut as Matthew Stafford looks to get him involved in the offense early and often in his first game in a Rams uniform.

PROP PICK 2: Devin Singletary UNDER 50.5 Rushing Yards (-114) on FanDuel Sportsbook

Look for this to be a high-scoring game that focuses much on the passing game as opposed to the ground attack. The Rams have a strong defensive line anchored by Aaron Donald. Expect the Bills to look to get the ball out quickly and offer extra protection to Josh Allen as opposed to concentrating on establishing the run in this game.

>> Read full Bills @ Rams Week 1 Picks & Betting Preview Guide

NFL Thursday Night Football Schedule 2022

WeekDateHomeAway
19/8RamsBills
29/15ChiefsChargers
39/22StellersBrowns
49/29BengalsDolphins
510/6BroncosColts
610/13CommandersBears
710/20CardinalsSaints
810/27BuccaneersRavens
911/3TexansEagles
1011/10PanthersFalcons
1111/17PackersTitans
1211/24VikingsPatriots
1312/1PatriotsBills
1412/8RamsRaiders
1512/15Seahawks49ers
1612/22JetsJaguars
1712/29TitansCowboys

Odds Assist Experts

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