Value Bets Finder – Football, Basketball, Soccer, & More

How Our Value Bets Finder Works

To find value bets, we monitor lines from online sportsbooks to find mispriced odds and lines that should return a profit over time. We check the odds every minute, so you can always find value bets that are currently available using our tool. This type of positive expected value betting can generate long-term profits when applied consistently.

Let's go over an example: if almost every sportsbook has the Kansas City Chiefs to win at -150 odds but one sportsbook has them at -135, we assume that -150 is the correct price, meaning there’s value at -135. The difference in odds offered creates a value opportunity when compared to the market consensus line.

>> Read More: How to Read Betting Odds

It’s not as simple as just looking for a market with odds that are more favorable than what other books are offering, however.

In order to be a value betting opportunity, it has to overcome the ”vig” or “juice” that sportsbooks charge. This is essentially what sportsbooks charge in order to take the bet and is the reason why standard 50/50 odds are usually at -110 (bet $110 to win $100) instead of +100 (bet $100 to win $100).

Using the same example above, if you assume -150 is the correct odds for the Chiefs to win and the other side has odds of +130, we can calculate the “Consensus No Vig Odds”—aka the price that bookmakers would offer if they weren’t taking a cut.

In this case, the no-vig fair odds would be about -138. So, if -138 is a fair bet, you are getting a deal at -135, creating a value bet. This bet has positive expected value compared to the total average odds available across the market.

To use our Value Bets Tool, simply check the cards above to see currently available value bets based on our data. Here is an explanation of the columns:

• Event: The game, league, date, and time.
• +EV Bet: The bet that is offering positive expected value (+EV) and which sportsbook is offering it.
• Consensus No Vig Odds: The consensus odds among the bookmakers we track with the vig removed.
• +EV Bet Odds: The odds of the +EV bet in a button that you can click to go to the sportsbook offering it. These odds offered can vary from the no-vig price.
• ROI: The expected long-term return on investment based on the +EV bet odds and the consensus no vig odds.

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet is one that has a positive expected return based on the odds. If you consistently bet value bets, you should make a profit over time. This is a proven sports betting strategy used by many sharp bettors.

It's possible to find value bets by finding the consensus line and odds at other sportsbooks. By looking at the consensus odds on both sides of a market, we can find the no vig odds. Anything that is more favorable than the no vig odds is a value bet and is likely to deliver long term profits.

Implied Probability

To truly understand value betting, you first must understand implied probability. Implied probability is the chance that a bet will win based on the odds from the sportsbook.

For example, if a sportsbook has a market with two sides having -110 odds each, the implied probability of each side winning is 52.38%, according to the odds.

You’ll notice that 52.38% multiplied by 2 equals 104.76%—which is over 100%. This extra 4.76% is from the vig that the bookmakers charge.

>> Calculate for yourself: Implied Probability Calculator

Regardless of the vig, if you think there is a greater than 52.38% chance of one of the sides winning, that would be a value bet, assuming you are correct on the chances of it winning being greater than 52.38%. This is why a deep understanding of betting theory and sports markets is essential.

As another example, if the true chances of a team winning is 65% but the odds imply that they have a 60% chance of winning, this would be a value bet with positive expected value.

Calculating No Vig Odds

Now that you know implied probability, let’s take it a step further and look at what no vig odds are (also called true odds).

Understanding true odds is key to identifying value and avoiding negative expected value bets.

In short, these are the true odds that sportsbooks would be offering if they didn’t take a cut.

For example, instead of both sides having odds of -110, each side would have +100 odds (a true 50/50 bet).

It’s important to calculate the no vig odds so you can understand if there’s value on lines/odds offered by other bookmakers.

Let’s say the consensus odds among bookmakers for the Dallas Cowboys to win is -180 (odds1) against the Detroit Lions, who are at +150 (odds2) to win. To remove the vig, we do the following:

1. Convert the odds to Decimal format by doing:
   1. Positive odds: 1 + (American Odds/100)
   2. Negative odds: 1 – (100/American Odds) 
   3. odds2 = 1 + (150/100) = 2.50
   4. odds1 = 1 – (100/-180) = 1.56
2. Find the total odds by doing:
   1. TotalOdds = (1 / odds1) + (1 / odds2) 
   2. TotalOdds = (1/1.56) + (1/2.50) = 1.041
3. Find the no-vig implied probability of each side of the bet by doing:
   1. NoVig ImpliedProb = 1 / odds / TotalOdds
   2. NoVig ImpliedProb odds1 = 1 / 1.56 / 1.041 = 61.6%
   3. NoVig ImpliedProb odds2 = 1 / 2.5 / 1.041 = 38.4%
4. Convert each implied probability to no vig American odds by doing:
   1. NoVig odds1 = -160
   2. NoVig odds2 = +160

Based on the no vig odds, we can then look for bets with better odds in each direction. For example, if you can get the Cowboys at -159 or better (-155, -145, etc.), that would be a value bet. Similarly, if you can get the Lions at +161 or better (+165, +170, etc.), that would be one as well. These types of bets represent strong value betting opportunities with positive EV betting potential.

Strategies for Finding Value Bets

1) Look for Mispriced Lines at Sportsbooks

The value betting tool above works by finding mispriced lines at sportsbooks. If most bookmakers have the odds of a bet within a small margin of each other, we assume that these are the “correct” odds. If one sportsbook has considerably different odds, we consider that to be mispriced.

In order for this difference to result in a value bet, it must be large enough to overcome the vig that bookmakers charge. Otherwise, you could be making a bet with negative expected value.

While you could do this work yourself by checking the odds for betting markets at many sportsbooks, it would take way too long to find a single value bet.

Our Value Bet Finder tool does the work for you by comparing odds at major sportsbooks every minute to find currently available opportunities. This allows you to compare odds and maximize the efficiency of your betting strategy. With the right tool, best bets become easier to identify and act on.

2) Take Advantage of Odds Boosts

Odds boosts are another way to find value betting opportunities. Odds boosts are when a sportsbook increases the odds on a specific bet.

While not all odds boosts are value bets, many are.

If an odds boost is for a single market, you can compare it to other sportsbooks to see how much value it offers. Comparing multiple books with real-time data is the best way to assess this.

If the odds boost is on a parlay, it’s harder to calculate if it’s a value bet since it’s harder to know the no vig odds on the bet.

3) Look for Arbitrage Betting Opportunities

Arbitrage bets and sure bets are rarer opportunities that guarantee you to make money by betting both sides of the market with separate sportsbooks.

You know you have an arbitrage betting opportunity when the sum of the odds of a two-way market add up to a positive number.

A two-way market is just one where there are only two possible outcomes of the bet, such as an Over/Under on a player's points, a moneyline bet where one team has to win, or a spread bet where the spread is the same number with each sportsbook.

For example, if FanDuel has the odds on the Yankees to win at +105 and BetMGM has the Red Sox to win (against the Yankees) at +100, you can bet both sides to guarantee yourself profit either way.

This technique can be part of a broader sports betting approach when searching for expected value. With smart execution, this approach also performs well in the long run.

4) Look for Middle Betting Opportunities

The last strategy for finding value betting opportunities is by middling a bet. When you middle a bet, you place one bet with one sportsbook and another bet with another.

The key here is that the lines have to be different, giving you a chance to win both bets if the outcome ends up in the middle.

For example, if FanDuel has Patrick Mahomes' passing yards at 220.5 and BetMGM has it at 200.5, you could bet the Under 220.5 at FanDuel and Over 200.5 at BetMGM. If the result ends up in between 201 and 220, you would win both bets. If it ends up outside of that range, you would still win one of your bets (though you may not make a profit depending on the odds offered).

5) Track Your Results With Bet Tracking Software

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