NFL Week 17 Picks – Sunday Best Bets

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We've been on an absolute heater with our NFL picks lately, going 13-6 on our best bets since Week 13.

Let's see if we can keep it rolling this week with 5 more picks to make this Sunday. This week, we've got 1 game on Saturday, 14 games on Sunday, and none on Monday.

Below you’ll find our picks for the best NFL bets to make on Sunday (12/31) for Week 17 of the 2023 NFL season. Remember, you can always compare NFL lines and odds by sportsbooks here.

Best NFL Week 17 Betting Picks

Atlanta Falcons @ Chicago Bears Over 37.5 – 1 pm ET

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

There will likely be snow for this game, but it looks like it won't be heavy and will not accumulate much on the ground. That weather forecast probably contributes to the low total, but I don't think it will be much of a factor.

If the snow isn't going to accumulate on the ground, it shouldn't affect the running games of either of these teams which is the focal point of both offenses.

The only concern I have about the weather is in the kicking game, but it doesn't look like there is going to be much wind, so it may not be as big of a deal, depending on how heavy the snow is and what the field conditions are like.

These teams are still in the playoff hunt and are evenly matched on offense and defense, which is often a winning combination for a high-scoring game.

Justin Fields has been masterful in the run game since he returned from his injury, leading the Bears to an average of 156.2 rushing yards and 22 points per game over their last 5 games. During this stretch, they've also gone 2-0 at home, both in terms of record and in terms of going over 38 total points.

As for the Falcons, they've scored more than 23 points in 6 of their last 8 games and have had a total game score over 38 in each of those 6 games as well. The two exceptions in their recent games have been against the lowly offenses of the Jets and Panthers.

The Falcons tend to score a lot more points when they are up against a team that is able to get touchdowns, and recently, the Bears have been able to do that through their dynamic rushing attack, so this seems like a game that is set up to be a back-and-forth touchdown fest.

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Houston Texans -4 vs. Tennessee Titans – 1 pm ET

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

The Texans will be getting QB CJ Stroud back from a concussion at just the right time as they look to keep their playoff hopes alive against the Titans.

The Titans’ offense has struggled mightily this year, ranking 27th in the league, putting up just 293.3 yards per game. They have really struggled on the road, averaging just 14 points per game and they only have 1 road win. In their 6 road losses, they have lost by an average of 11.66 points per game.

The Texans are 7-3 ATS against Tennessee in their last 10 meetings.

While the two teams are relatively evenly matched on defense, the Texans' advantage on offense will be too much for them to overcome regardless of whether Will Levis or Ryan Tannehill is playing quarterback for the Titans come Sunday afternoon.

The Texans have the 6th-best rush defense in the league, allowing just over 90 yards per game on the ground. That will mean it will be hard for the Titans to rely on star running back Derrick Henry to carry the load. Henry has struggled this year, putting up just 3 games of over 100 yards in 2023, compared to 9 such games in 2022.

This is a must-win game for the Texans. Look for them to come out motivated and get the win and cover Sunday afternoon.

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San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Commanders Over 49.5 – 1 pm ET

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

I initially thought that the 49ers covering the 13.5-point spread was the best pick for this game, but then Brock Purdy threw 4 picks against the Ravens, and Jacoby Brissett was named the starter for the Commanders.

I still have faith that Brock Purdy can lead an effective 49ers offense that can score 30+ (they've done that in 9 of their 15 games), but we could see a slightly less overpowering offense than what we've come to expect from the Niners this season.

Purdy's confidence could be shaken, leading to less big passing plays that would otherwise be the catalyst for a big San Francisco win over the Commanders poor defense, leaving the door open for Jacoby Brissett to keep Washington in it til the end.

Brissett played the last 3 drives for the Commanders last week against the Jets, and he led them to a TD in each in an impressive display of offensive efficiency. That outstanding performance late last week is a new development for a team that has only averaged a bit over 20 points per game this season. It marks a potential new era for this season where the Commanders may be able to keep up offensively with what they give up defensively.

Washington has been terrible on defense this season, giving up 30+ points per game on, average, including 34.7 over the last 6 weeks. This included two 45-point performances by the Cowboys and Dolphins who both have nearly identical offensive numbers to the 49ers.

If the 49ers also get 45 points, it will only take one Washington touchdown to hit the over. I personally think the Commanders will get at least a few touchdowns, so the over seems like a pretty good bet.

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Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 @ Denver Broncos – 4:25 pm ET

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

The Broncos, who still had a shot at the playoffs despite losing 2 straight games, have decided to bench QB Russell Wilson in favor of backup Jarrett Stidham.

Head coach Sean Payton claims it is because he is not happy with the way the offense has performed, but the reality is this is a move to avoid having to pay Wilson additional money if he is unable to pass physical next year—and the team knows it.

Guessing this move does not sit well with many of the players, as Wilson was a team leader and was having a solid season, throwing for 26 touchdowns to just 8 interceptions.

It will be hard to see how the team rallies behind this move down the stretch.

Stidham has not won a game in his NFL career and has more interceptions than touchdowns in limited playing time. This is not the type of guy that Denver expects to win them a few games in hopes of sneaking into the playoffs.

The Chargers will go with Easton Stick at QB again, as starter Justin Herbert is out for the season. Stick has the advantage over Stidham in this one. He is game-ready, having played in 3 games already this year. He has completed over 66% of his passes and has a passer rating of 94.4.

The Chargers played a great game against the Bills last week, falling just short 24-22, and they have an extra day to prepare for the Broncos, having played on Saturday this past week.

Look for the Chargers to be the more motivated team and for them to cover +3.5 on Sunday afternoon against a Denver team that has given up on the 2023 season.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 vs. New Orleans Saints – 1 pm ET

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

The Bucs have been absolutely cooking recently, scoring 31 points per game over their last 3 games, which is tied for the most points for a team over that stretch this season. They are on a 4-game win streak and have surged to the top of the NFC South with a chance to clinch the division with a win this week.

Tampa Bay has arguably been the hottest team in the NFL, and with the stakes being so high in this game, I believe the Buccaneers will play near-perfect football this week.

The Saints haven't been horrible, but they certainly haven't been good over the last few months. They are 2-4 over their last 6 games, with their only 2 wins coming against the Giants and Panthers.

They haven't actually beaten a team with a winning record all season and have generally been a disappointment after coming into the season with a good shot at winning the division. They still technically have a chance at winning the NFC South, but based on the way they have been playing, it doesn't look likely.

This should be a walk in the park for the Buccaneers if they continue to play like they have recently. The Saints have key injuries on their O-line and might be without star receiver Chris Olave, and the Bucs are basically completely healthy, especially on offense, where they have been dominant recently.

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