NFL Week 16 Picks – Sunday & Monday Best Bets

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We had another profitable week last week, going 3-2 on our NFL best bets and 2-0 on our opening line picks.

Let's see if we can keep it rolling this week with 5 more picks to make this Sunday and Monday. Remember there are 3 games on Saturday, 10 games on Sunday, and 3 on Monday this week.

Below you’ll find our picks for the best NFL bets to make on Sunday (12/24) and Monday (12/25) for Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season. Remember, you can always compare NFL lines and odds by sportsbooks here.

Best NFL Week 16 Betting Picks

Seattle Seahawks -2.5 @ Tennessee Titans – Sunday, 1 pm ET

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

Over the last 5 weeks, the Seahawks are 1-4, yet they have been playing some of their best football of the season.

They've been forced to play at their fullest potential recently due to their dominant competition. They played the Rams (7-7), the Cowboys (10-4), the 49ers (11-3) twice, and the Eagles (10-4) over the last five weeks as their team has been tested week after week.

If you believe that iron sharpens iron, the Seahawks should be one of the sharpest teams in the league.

The Titans have had decent competition of late (3 of their last 5 opponents would make the playoffs if the season ended today), but not nearly as intimidating as what the Seahawks have faced over the past month. The Titans have been competitive in these games, winning 2 of them and losing another 2 by just 3 points each (both by overtime field goals).

Rookie QB Will Levis has shown flashes but is still a rookie and will have a hard time throwing the ball against a Seahawks’ defense that features stars like Devon Witherspoon, Riq Woolen, Quandre Diggs, and Jamal Adams. Derrick Henry has been extremely ineffective recently, running for a measly 1.3 yards per carry over his last 2 games.

With Geno Smith back and their 3 receiving weapons ready to go, as well as their defense showing that they can contain even the most explosive offenses in the league (mostly the Eagles and Rams, who they held to just 17 points each), I've got the Seahawks getting a big win over Tennessee.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – Sunday, 4:05 pm ET

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

This is a matchup between 2 teams heading in opposite directions as the season winds down. Tampa has won 3 straight games, while Jacksonville has lost 3 straight.

Tampa QB Baker Mayfield has been playing some of his best football, including a perfect passer rating last week on the road at Green Bay.

Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence has not looked the same since suffering an ankle injury in a Monday night loss to the Bengals. He has completed just 57% of his passes with 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.

These teams are nearly equal on defense, with Jacksonville allowing 360.1 yards per game and Tampa allowing 359.9 yards per game.

But Jacksonville has really struggled against the run in recent weeks, giving up 163 yards per game rushing over their last 3 games.

Overall on the season offensively, Jacksonville has a slight edge, but in recent weeks, Tampa is averaging 28 points per game, while Jacksonville is only averaging 21.7 points per game.

Jacksonville has especially struggled rushing the ball during their losing streak, averaging only 68 yards rushing per game. That is putting far too much pressure on a banged-up Lawrence.

Look for Tampa to keep the momentum going on Christmas Eve and pick up a win against Jacksonville.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Over 40.5 – Sunday, 4:05 pm ET

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

The formula for a high-scoring game at this point in the season is 2 playoff contenders playing in good weather with offenses that have big play potential.

This game checks all of those boxes, plus there’s the added benefit of neither of these defenses being very good at stopping the passing game.

The Buccaneers have allowed 264 yards through the air per game, which is the 2nd most in the NFL, and the Jaguars allow 257 yards through the air per game, which is the 4th most in the league.

There is a clear upward trend with the Buccaneers offense over the last 5 games. Their scoring over the past 5 games, in chronological order, looks like this: 14, 20, 21, 29, and 34 points.

Last week against the Packers, Baker Mayfield threw for 381 yards and 4 touchdowns.

The Bucs are the hottest they've been all season, and they've been doing through the air, which makes this game against a poor Jags’ secondary a recipe for big points on this side of the ball.

Turning it over to the other side of the ball, the Jags struggled mightily against a great Ravens’ defense. An obviously banged-up Trevor Lawrence still managed to have a somewhat decent game, but they had virtually no running attack, and Lawrence fumbled twice to seal their fate.

The 4 games before this last one, though, looked promising. The Jags averaged 29 points per game and were rolling right along to an AFC South title and a decent playoff position.

My assumption is that with Lawrence another week to recover and the fact that they are playing a much weaker defense, we will see fireworks for both teams in this one.

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Philadelphia Eagles -12 vs. New York Giants – Monday, 4:30 pm ET

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off a brutal stretch of games where they have lost 3 straight. But the reality is the sky is not falling in Philadelphia.

While home-field advantage in the NFC may be a stretch, the Eagles control their destiny for the 2 or 3 seed and the NFC East title.

They have made some changes on the defensive side of the ball and, while they lost Monday night at Seattle, they most certainly showed some improvement following awful performances against San Francisco and Dallas. They limited Seattle’s explosive WRs and kept the run game in check, but were done in by turnovers.

They should have no trouble against one of the worst offenses in the league. The Giants are averaging just 261.7 yards and 13.5 points per game.

After a nice 3-game win streak, the Giants came crashing back to reality last week, putting up just 6 points and less than 200 yards in a 24-6 loss to the Saints.

The Eagles have one of the better rush defenses in the league giving up under 95 yards per game. So the Giants will not be able to rely on RB Saquon Barkley to carry the load. So that means undrafted rookie QB Tommy DeVito will have a lot of pressure on him.

There is no way they will be able to keep up with the Eagles’ offense. Look for them to get back on track after a tough stretch and show everyone they are still one of the top teams in the NFC.

Take the Eagles -12 Monday, as they will make a big statement in a blowout win.

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Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins Over 49.5 – Monday, 4:25 pm ET

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

The Dallas Cowboys season has been a tale of 2 teams: the team that they are at home and the team that they are on the road.

At home, the Cowboys have scored 39.9 points a game. On the road, they've only scored 21.7 per game, including a 10-point stinker in Buffalo last week.

That game really exposed their struggles on the road to a national audience, and I think they are going to do everything in their power to show out in Miami this week. If they can get into a rhythm early like they do at home, they are virtually unstoppable.

We know the Dolphins are going to ball out if Tyreek Hill and the 4 starting linemen who are listed as questionable can play. They've averaged 34 points per game in their last 4 games. Raheem Mostert has been a touchdown machine with 20 house calls so far this season, and he could easily score a couple more in this one.

Both offenses have quick-strike ability with their deep passing attacks and chunk running play potential. They don't waste time or yards getting touchdowns. The Dolphins have the 2nd best scoring efficiency in the league, scoring .504 points per play, and the Cowboys have the 3rd best, scoring .463 points per play.

They also both rank in the bottom of the league in red zone defense, which is a very big indicator that we could see a lot of scoring. Red zone stops are an absolute scoring killer, but in this one, they'll have a much easier time.

I've got this game being very high-scoring so I’m locking in Over 49.5

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