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We went 3-3 on our college football best bets last week, bringing our season record to 11-6.
Let's see if we can get back to profitability this week with 6 picks for Week 4 of the NCAAF season.
Below you'll find our picks for the best college football bets to make on Saturday (9/23) for Week 4 of the 2023 NCAAF season. Remember, you can always compare college football lines and odds by sportsbooks here.
College Football Picks Record 2023: 11-6 (+5.64 units)
Best College Football Week 4 Picks
Clemson +2.5 vs. Florida State – 12 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
This is a must-win game for Clemson, a 2nd conference loss and their season is all but over.
The good news for the Tigers is they have dominated this rivalry in recent years, having won 7 in a row over the Seminoles.
Clemson has gotten back on track since their opening season loss to Duke. Granted, it’s been against lesser competition, but they have scored 114 points in their last 2 games.
Clemson QB Cade Klubnik should have some success through the air against a Florida State pass defense that has allowed over 300 passing yards to both LSU and Boston College already this season.
Florida State did not look great and almost lost at Boston College last week, hanging on for a 31-29 win.
Florida State QB Jordan Travis threw for only 222 yards in the game and now he faces a very difficult Clemson passing defense on the road that has allowed under 150 passing yards per game on the season, so it will not be an easy matchup for him.
The line has not touched the key number of 3, despite Florida State being the more heavily bet team in this one.
Take Clemson +2.5 at home in a season-saving game against a Florida State team that won’t be ready for a moment this big. Also consider a play on Clemson on the moneyline, as I think they win this one outright.
>> Use Our College Football Comparison Tool to Find the Best Lines & Odds for This Game
Colorado @ Oregon OVER 70.5 – 3:30 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
This season will be the final year that either Colorado or Oregon will be in the PAC 12. Colorado is moving to the Big 12 and Oregon is headed to the Big 10 ahead of the 2024 football season.
Out of the 24 games these two schools have played against each other (dating all the way back to 1949), this could be the most anticipated and most hotly contested.
Oregon has gotten the better of Colorado 9 out of the last 10 games they've played and will come into this one with home-field advantage, momentum, and statistical dominance on their side, but Colorado has coach Prime (not to mention the plethora of elite athletes he convinced to transfer to Boulder), and they have been dominating the box scores every game this season so far.
While I do like Oregon in this game, I just don't think it is smart to bet against Deion and Colorado this year. Instead, I think the safest bet in this one is the over. It may be high, at 70.5, at the time of writing this, but with these two offenses, I'm fairly confident they can exceed that number.
Colorado averages 41.3 points per game (including last week where they only scored 14 points in the 1st half and then scored 29 the rest of the game). Oregon averages a whopping 58 points (with an 81-point game against Portland State mixed in there). Neither of their offenses has been particularly dominant against average or better offenses either, so expect a shootout.
>> Use Our College Football Comparison Tool to Find the Best Lines & Odds for This Game
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West Virginia +6 vs. Texas Tech – 3:30 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
West Virginia is coming off a hard-fought win in the Backyard Brawl against Pitt last week. While many would look at this as a classic letdown spot after a big rivalry win, I don’t expect that to be the case this week.
West Virginia is very well tested, having opened the year with a loss at Penn State, but the game was close until the end. West Virginia has rushed the ball well this year, averaging over 200 yards per game on the ground, which will bode well for them against a Texas Tech team that is giving up over 160 yards per game on the ground.
Texas Tech is 1-2 on the season, with their only win coming against FCS opponent Tarleton State.
They struggled on the road in a Week 1 loss at Wyoming. After scoring 17 points in the first quarter, they did not score again until late in the 4th quarter when they kicked a FG to send the game to overtime before losing.
Then against Oregon, Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough really struggled, throwing 3 interceptions, including a pick 6, in another loss.
Even against Tarleton State he only completed 50% of his passes for 110 yards in limited action. And it won’t get easier against a West Virginia defense that is allowing just over 20 points and only 307 yards per game.
Texas Tech has only won 3 road games out of their last 10 and now they are being asked to win by a touchdown to cover. It’s too many points for them to be laying, play West Virginia +6.
>> Use Our College Football Comparison Tool to Find the Best Lines & Odds for This Game
Washington State +3 vs Oregon State – 7 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
With Washington State and Oregon State being the only teams staying in the PAC 12 for next season, this matchup may quickly become a heated rivalry with championship implications every season. This week's matchup could kick off this renewed rivalry with what I suspect will be a close game.
Both teams have potent offenses with star QBs and great rush defenses. The passing attack of both teams will determine who wins this game. That's why I have a strong feeling that Oregon State is going to struggle, and I think it is likely that Washington State will win, although taking the spread is the safer pick, as Oregon State will not go down easy, and could win on a last-minute field goal.
D.J. Uiagalelei got off to a strong start this season, passing for 5 touchdowns in Week 1 against San Jose St., and has only thrown 1 touchdown in the past two weeks. They have really relied on Damien Martinez (351 yards on 40 carries) and Deshaun Fenwick (152 yards on 26 carries) recently and average only 247 passing yards compared to 219 rushing yards.
Washington State, on the other hand, has averaged 397 passing yards and 138 rushing yards.
With both teams allowing less than 100 rushing yards per game and having allowed 200+ passing yards, Washington State's offense is much better suited to beat their opponent's defense than Oregon St. is to beat them.
>> Use Our College Football Comparison Tool to Find the Best Lines & Odds for This Game
Oregon -20.5 vs. Colorado – 3:30 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
This is the game Colorado finally comes crashing back down to earth.
They are going up against one of the powers in the PAC 12 and will be without star player Travis Hunter who plays both WR and CB for the Buffaloes.
Colorado was lucky to escape in double overtime last week against Colorado State after some questionable coaching decisions by Colorado State.
Oregon knows that all the attention is on Colorado coach Deion Sanders and they won’t be afraid to run it up and make a statement with so many people paying close attention to this one.
Oregon as outscored their opponents 174-47 in their first 3 games. That will spell major trouble for a Colorado defense that has allowed 91 points in just 3 games. In those 3 games they have allowed over 460 yards per game, 9th worst in the entire country. Not good against a team that is 3rd in the country in total offense with over 587 yards per game.
Oregon may give up some points, but they will score plenty, cover the number and make a big statement to the nation on Saturday afternoon that they are a national title contender.
>> Use Our College Football Comparison Tool to Find the Best Lines & Odds for This Game
Notre Dame Moneyline (+135) vs. Ohio State – 7:30 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
Sometimes, it's the little things that make the most significant difference in football games. We could debate all day whether home-field advantage is actually that big of an advantage, but when you have two powerhouses like these teams who seem so evenly matched, it could be the difference between a win or a loss.
Not only does Notre Dame have home-field advantage, but their team has been off to a red-hot start, winning their first four games in dominant fashion.
That is opposed to Ohio State, who didn't play up to expectations early on in their first game against Indiana on the road but have gotten progressively better during their short two-game home stand against Youngstown State and Western Kentucky.
Now Ohio State goes back on the road to play the ninth-ranked team in the country, Notre Dame who seem to be in mid-season form.
Notre Dame may be considered the underdogs in this one (their last win against Ohio State came in 1936), but I like their chances with Transfer QB Sam Hartman at the helm, who has an incredible 71% completion percentage over his first four games and a defense led by cornerback Ben Morrison that has held opposing QBs to a completion percentage of just 44%.
Ohio State QB Kyle McCord, who struggled in his only other road game this season, is going to have an uphill battle if he wants to get his offense going against Notre Dame's top-ranked pass defense. I believe this game is going to be a declaration to the rest of the country that Notre Dame is legit and that they are going to be serious contenders for a playoff spot and then some.
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