Companies featured on this page may be our partners who compensate us if you sign up for one through our links. This doesn't affect our ratings or opinions in any way. Must be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. See full disclosure.
We've had a great start to our college football betting season, going 8-3 on best bets to kick things off. Let's see if we can keep the ball rolling this week with 6 picks for Week 3 of the NCAAF season.
Below you'll find our picks for the best college football bets to make on Saturday (9/16) for Week 3 of the 2023 NCAAF season. Remember, you can always compare college football lines and odds by sportsbooks here.
College Football Picks Record 2023: 8-3 (+5.91 units)
Best College Football Week 3 Picks
Alabama -31.5 @ South Florida – 3:30 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
Alabama goes on the road for a rare true road game against a non-power 5 opponent.
And it just may be the thing they need to put the loss against Texas behind them.
The South Florida defense is really bad. They have given 65 points in just two games and one of those games was against SWAC opponent Florida A&M.
So the offensive problems that plagued Alabama last week, including allowing 5 sacks and throwing 2 interceptions should not be an issue for them this week. South Florida will not be able to generate nearly the kind of pressure on Alabama that Texas did and as a result, Alabama should have no trouble moving the ball against a South Florida defense that has allowed 429 per game over their first two contests.
Look for Jalen Milroe to play a cleaner game and make plays like he did against Middle Tennessee State in the opener. If the backups get a chance to play, they will also have a chance to make plays and try and work their way up the depth chart.
The Alabama defense should be able to easily contain the South Florida offense, which only put up 342 yards against Florida A&M.
Alabama is 4-1 ATS over their last 5 following a straight-up loss since 2019. Look for that trend to continue as Nick Saban gets the Tide back on track with a big win on Saturday.
Penn State -14.5 @ Illinois – 12 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
The Fighting Illini aren't the same team they were last year when they broke out onto the national scene with a vaunted defense and an offense led by Tommy Devito and Chase Brown.
Illinois has given up 31 points a game on average over its first two games this season. Their offense is slowly trying to pick up the pieces after their two stars left for the NFL this offseason, and they have been relying on the play of Sophomore dual-threat QB Luke Altmyer, whose first two games have been incredibly inconsistent.
Altmyer has led Illinois to a rocky 1-1 start, barely beating Toledo at home in Week 1 and then losing to Kansas in Lawrence last week. Altmyer led the team in both passing and rushing in both games but threw 3 picks over that time and has been sacked 8 times, which has hamstrung his ability to build some momentum around what has otherwise been decent quarterback play.
Altmyer likely won't get much of a chance to build momentum this week as they play the seventh-ranked team in the nation in Penn State. The Nittany Lions have only allowed 22 total points this season and have scored 101, giving them one of the best point differentials in the country.
The Penn State defense is well coached and likely won't let Illinois get into a rhythm on offense, and Drew Allar and the Penn State offense should be just as dominant. Allar has the 14th-best QB rating in the country and has a completion percentage near 80%. He, alongside their one-two rushing attack of Kaytron Allen (154 yards and 1 TD) and Nicholas Singleton (117 yards and 4 TDs), should surely give the Nittany Lions a very comfortable win against Illinois.
Offers from our partners
Western Michigan +28.5 @ Iowa – 3:30 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
When you have an offense that simply cannot score it is hard to lay over 4 touchdowns in a game regardless of the opponent. And that is exactly the situation we have here. Iowa has scored over 28 points exactly twice in their last 24 games. So chances are they won’t even be scoring enough points to cover this number.
The Iowa offense has averaged less than 260 yards per against the likes of Iowa St and Utah St to open the season—not exactly defensive powerhouses. Utah State allowed 434 yards to FCS opponent Idaho State after holding Iowa to just 284 yards the week prior. So that should give you an idea of just how bad the Iowa offense is.
Iowa has only run 60 plays per game over their first two games. With the new clock rules their games are certainly shorter in length meaning even less time for them to score with the deliberate offense they run.
Western Michigan is not a great team, scoring just 7 against Syracuse last week while allowing 48 points in the loss, but the defense showed some improvement in the 2nd half, holding Syracuse to just 3 points.
Western Michigan will have a tough time scoring but should be able to get one in the end zone at some point during the game. Take them to cover the 28.5 points. The under 42.5 may also be worth a look as these are two of the worst offensive teams in college football.
Minnesota @ North Carolina UNDER 51 – 3:30 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
The Gophers are the epitome of Big Ten football. They play hard-nosed, stifling defense and produce just enough on the ground on offense to control the clock and win games. It's not a very exciting brand of football to watch, but it works for them, and they have won their first two games while only giving up 16 total points so far.
The Gophers get their first real defensive challenge this season in the form of an away game to North Carolina to face Drake Maye and the Tar Heels. North Carolina was thought to be one of the most dangerous offenses coming into the season, led by Drake Maye's arm, but so far, he has not been playing up to the Heisman Buzz he generated this offseason. With only 2 touchdowns and less than 500 total passing yards, as well as 2 interceptions, Maye's performance has been a bit of a letdown.
If Maye continues to struggle, which I believe he will against the Gophers' excellent defense, the Tar Heels will struggle to take control of the pace of the game and allow Minnesota to play their methodical style of football, and we will see a very low-scoring game.
West Virginia -1 vs Pittsburgh – 7:30 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
This is a huge rivalry game for both teams and West Virginia is probably a little more tested and ready for this one at home than Pittsburgh is.
West Virginia lost a tough opener at a very good Penn State team in a game that was closer than the final score indicated. Then they bounced back last week and comfortably beat Duquesne.
Pitt opened up with a win at home against Wofford, but then went on the road and lost as a favorite to Cincinnati last week. Phil Jurkovec has not looked good at QB for Pitt, throwing for just 393 yards in two games.
West Virginia should be able to move the ball in this one on the ground. Pitt gave up 216 yards on the ground to Cincinnati last week. West Virginia ran for over 300 yards against Duquesne last week and the week before against a tough Penn State defense they still managed to put up 146 yards on the ground.
Look for West Virginia to control this game and get the win at home in their biggest game of the year.
Oregon State -24.5 vs San Diego State – 3:30 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
The Beavers seem like a legit powerhouse this season. D.J. Uiagalelei has only had to throw 38 passes over their first two games due to them taking and holding such a commanding lead early on in their games, but over those 38 throws, he has a 73.7% completion rate as well as 5 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.
Besides D.J., The Beavers offense has gotten a huge lift from Sophomore RB Damien Martinez, who has ran for nearly 250 yards on only 25 carries.
Overall, the Beavers average over 7.2 yards per play on offense (leading to 48.5 points per game) and have only allowed 3.8 yards per play on defense (leading to only 12 points per game given up). These dominant numbers are why I'm confident that the Beavers will absolutely rout the Aztecs on Saturday.
The Aztecs won their first two games, but they were close games to lesser competition (20 to 13 and 36 to 28 to Ohio University and Idaho State, respectively) and then came crashing back to reality with a big 35 to 10 loss to UCLA.
The Bruins are a very good team, but not even they are up to the caliber of the Beavers. I say this game will be an even bigger blowout for the Aztecs.
Offers from our partners
