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We only went 3-3 on our best bets last week but would have had a huge week if it weren’t for Clemson and Notre Dame both losing on last-second scores.
We're back this week with 5 picks from our team of experts, including two picks on the USC-Colorado matchup that everyone seems to want to get action on.
Below you’ll find our picks for the best college football bets to make on Saturday (9/30) for Week 5 of the 2023 NCAAF season. Remember, you can always compare college football lines and odds by sportsbooks here.
College Football Picks Record 2023: 14-9 (+5.41 units)
Best College Football Week 5 Picks
USC -21.5 @ Colorado – 12 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
Last week, Colorado came crashing back to earth exactly as predicted in a 42-6 loss to Oregon. The schedule makers did Colorado no favors with a game against another PAC-12 powerhouse in USC on tap for this Saturday.
USC QB Caleb Williams will most certainly be able to put on a Heisman worthy performance against one of the worst defenses in college football. Colorado is allowing 33.3 points per game, 17th worst in the nation. So it is not a good time for the Colorado defense to have to go up against USC, which ranks 3rd in the nation in yards per game and 1st in the nation in points per game.
Williams has been nearly unstoppable on the season, throwing for 1,200 yards, 15 touchdowns, and no interceptions through the first four games. This Colorado defense will not present a challenge to him.
Colorado will continue to be without two-way star Travis Hunter, who suffered an injury in the Colorado State game a few weeks ago.
Colorado will have trouble protecting QB Shedeur Sanders against a very tough USC pass rush. Last week against Arizona State, USC recorded 8 sacks, bringing their total through 4 games to 16 sacks. Colorado was sacked 7 times last week, bringing their total to 23 sacks allowed on the season.
Colorado is just 2-4 in their last 6 games ATS versus USC.
This is a big mismatch and USC knows the bar Oregon has set against Colorado with their win last week. They know all eyes will be on Boulder with Big Noon timeslot. Look for them to try and match or surpass what Oregon did against Colorado and play USC -21.5 on Saturday.
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Louisiana +11 @ Minnesota – 12 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
Minnesota has had a rough go of it so far this season, barely beating Nebraska in a classic low-scoring game in the opener and then slowly unraveling since then. Their typically dominant defense has struggled to contain opposing offenses, allowing 30+ points per game in the last two weeks.
Minnesota has also been unable to keep up with other teams with their patient offensive approach. They were able to put up 34 points last week despite losing in overtime, but they had to get a monstrous 198-yard performance by running back Darius Taylor to achieve that number.
Assuming Louisiana can stack the box and limit Taylor to less than 150 rushing yards, Minnesota has shown that its passing attack is ineffective enough to pull away from teams on its own. Minnesota could and should win this game, but by the nature of its offensive play style, it can't reliably build a double-digit lead on opponents.
Louisiana, for its side, is not just going to roll over either. They have a running attack that is even more potent than Minnesota, and they boast 6 different players, all with over 100 yards receiving so far, so their offense is very diversified and dynamic. This offense has led them to solid wins over UAB and Buffalo in recent weeks, and they certainly have the talent to give Minnesota a run for their money.
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New Mexico @ Wyoming UNDER 41 – 4 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
This is a Mountain West battle between two teams that struggle to score, especially when they are playing each other. 6 of the last 7 between these two teams have gone under and the average points scored in those games is just 29.
Wyoming is 8-2 to the under in their last 10 games and New Mexico has gone under in 6 of their last 10 road games.
Wyoming’s 24.5 points per game is a bit misleading, as they went in to double overtime against Texas Tech on the opening weekend tied at 20 before pulling out a 35-33 win.
The Wyoming defense has played tough all season, with 10 returning starters and that should continue again this week.
Offensively, Wyoming QB Andrew Peasley has struggled, completing just over 52% of his passes on the year for just 5 touchdowns.
Wyoming will continue to rely on their run game, which is averaging over 168 yards per game. The new clock rules and a running centric offense will shorten the game. Last week against Appalachian State, Wyoming only ran 42 offensive plays. New Mexico is averaging under 61 players per game on the season themselves.
With a limited number of plays being run, this game should stay UNDER 41 on Saturday night.
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USC @ Colorado UNDER 74.5 – 12 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
74.5 points is a lot, even for these two electric PAC-12 offenses. Last week I fell for the trap of thinking that Colorado could keep up with Oregon's offensive production and score over 70 in that game. As we all know, Colorado fell flat, and we're embarrassed to the tune of a 42-6 loss to the Ducks.
Let's be clear: USC's defense is not as dominant as Oregon's, who has only given up a little over 13 PPG on average. USC has given up a little more, sitting at 20 PPG on average. This touchdown difference, while significant if we were looking at an O/U around 45 or so, is not going to be the difference in this 74.5 O/U game.
USC's offense, as well as Colorado's, are certainly built to put up a lot of points. USC has put up an eye-popping 55 points per game on average, and Colorado averaged over 40 points per game before last week's dismal display, which would undoubtedly be enough to beat the total. Still, you have to consider the practicalities of scoring that much in a game.
There is a reason we don't see 70+ totals super often. The most effective route to 70 points is to score 10 touchdowns. If you assume a five-minute average drive time, you get 50 of the 60 minutes in a game and are only left with 10 minutes of wiggle room for stalled drives, one team burning the clock, or red zone stops that result in field goals. 73.5 points is statistically possible but practically unlikely.
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Alabama at Mississippi State UNDER 47.5 – 9 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
Nothing has become clearer over the past few weeks than Alabama having a really good defense, but a dysfunctional offense at the moment.
Alabama is only giving up 13.5 points per game on the season and now they face a Mississippi State offense that has been inconsistent against better competition this season. Against LSU, they managed to score just 14 points in 41-14 loss.
Mississippi State will want to control the clock and run the ball, thus shortening the game. They will have trouble moving the ball through the air against an Alabama defense that allows barely over 200 yards through the air per game.
Offensively, Alabama has struggled mightily this season. Other than in a season opening route of Middle Tennessee State, Alabama is averaging under 22 points per game. While Alabama may take a few big shots down the field, look for them to rely on the run game, for QB Jalen Milroe to make some plays with his feet, and for them to play the field position game and let the defense carry them.
The Mississippi St. defense is allowing just 27.5 points per game, which seems to be about all Alabama will be capable of scoring.
The last 5 games in this series have gone under.
This looks like a 31-13 game at most, the total was bet down to 47.5 from an opening number of 52.5, despite the majority of the money being on the over. There is still value at 47.5, so play the UNDER.
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