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We went 2-3 on our college football best bets last week, with some close losses that could have easily gone the other way.
Let’s see if we can get back to profitability this week with 5 picks from our team of experts, including spread, total, and moneyline bets.
Below you’ll find our picks for the best college football bets to make on Saturday (10/14) for Week 7 of the 2023 NCAAF season. Remember, you can always compare college football lines and odds by sportsbooks here.
Best College Football Week 7 Picks
Oklahoma St +3 vs. Kansas – 3:30 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
Oklahoma State appears to be getting things together after a slow start to the season. Last week they beat a good Kansas State team at home and now they have a good chance to pull the outright upset against Kansas who will likely be without starting QB Jalon Daniels.
That means Jason Bean will get another start for Kansas. Last week he only threw 12 passes, completing 8 for 91 yards and a touchdown as Kansas relied heavily on the ground game against UCF, putting up nearly 400 yards rushing, but that was against the 10th worst rushing defense in all of college football.
Now they will go up against an Oklahoma State defense that will key in on the run with Bean at QB. That will force him to make some plays, which he is likely not capable of. Last week Oklahoma State picked off Kansas State QB Will Howard 3 times.
The Oklahoma State offense has really improved the past few weeks with QB Alan Bowman averaging over 256 yards per game through the air in his last 2 games. He has been helped by lead RB Ollie Gordon who has averaged 128.5 on the ground over his last 2 games.
Oklahoma State has dominated this series winning 9 of 10 with their only loss coming last year at Kansas, making this a great revenge spot for Oklahoma State.
Look for Coach Gundy to have Oklahoma State fired up to play Saturday and for them to cover at +3. This is also worth a moneyline look, as there is a good chance of an upset on Saturday in Stillwater.
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Oregon @ Washington OVER 66.5 – 3:30 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
These are the two best offenses in the country, and they both play a fast-paced style of football that doesn't focus too hard on defensive prowess.
Neither Washington nor Oregon will care much if they give up 40+ so long as they can keep an efficient rhythm on offense. They have both had games where they've displayed solid defensive skills and kept teams from finding their stride, but they haven't played teams with quite the same offensive firepower as their competitor this week.
Speaking of efficient offenses, the offensive stats for these two teams are insane. Washington leads the nation in yards per game with 569, followed by Oregon in second place with 558 yards per game. They only trail USC (51.8 ppg) in points scored per game; Oregon is in second with 51.6, and Washington is in third with 46 points per game.
In terms of advanced stats, the numbers just get better: Washington scores 3 times per punt, and Oregon scores 2.5 times for every punt. When looking at the points per play stat, you see that Washington scores .706 points for every play they run, and Oregon scores .641 points per play; these numbers are 2nd and 4th in the country, respectively.
All these stats mean that these 2 teams aren't messing around when it comes to scoring quickly and reliably. Neither team is in much danger of getting shut out or kept down in this game; they are just too good for this game not to be a high-scoring barn burner.
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Notre Dame -2.5 vs. USC – 7:30 pm ET (Competing Pick)
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
Last week was a great spot to bet against Notre Dame as they were on back-to-back road games with a look ahead situation to the USC game.
Now it is time to make a play on Notre Dame as they face a USC team who will finally have their defensive weaknesses exposed Saturday night against a good Notre Dame offense which is putting up 437.9 yards per game and scoring over 34 points per game.
The high-powered USC offensive has managed to hide glaring issues against for the defense all season long, but now Caleb Williams will come against the best defense has seen this year. Notre Dame is ranked 12th in the country in yards allowed giving up just 279.4 yards per game.
Compare that to the USC defense which is allowing 421.3 yards per game.
USC will not be able to win a shootout because Notre Dame will seriously limit the USC time of possession. Look for Notre Dame to be able to control this game offensively, putting together long drives against the suspect USC defense and keeping the USC offense off the field. Then the Notre Dame defense is definitely capable of getting some stops throughout the night.
Play Notre Dame -2.5, as they will win this one by 3 or more Saturday.
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USC Moneyline (+121) @ Notre Dame – 7:30 pm ET (Competing Picks)
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
For as great as the Washington and Oregon game should be, this might just be the game of the week. USC's offense is just as good if not better than that of Washington and Oregon, and Notre Dame has been one of the more consistent defensive teams in the country with a good offense as well.
These 2 teams are led by their star quarterbacks, Caleb Williams for USC and Sam Hartman for Notre Dame.
Sam Hartman leads a very good Notre Dame team, but over the last few weeks, we've seen some cracks exposed by other ranked teams. After dominating in their first 4 games, Notre Dame took their first loss to Ohio State in a thriller that came down to a last-second touchdown that may or may not have been given to the Buckeyes by the refs.
The following week, they played another close game against Duke but ultimately won by 7 before getting handily beat by a then-unranked Louisville team 33-20.
As Notre Dame has struggled in the last few weeks, USC has continued their undefeated season under the steady QB play of the future first overall pick, Caleb Williams. USC's offense has continued to put up at least 40 points in every game this season but recently has fallen a bit in terms of defensive production.
Unlike the first few weeks of the season when USC's defense kept opponents under 30, the last two weeks have seen 2 different PAC-12 opponents (Colorado and Arizona) each score 41 against them.
Honestly, despite USC's questionable defensive play, this game seems to be a slam dunk for the slim underdogs, with their consistently dominant offense and Notre Dame's recent struggles.
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Oregon State vs. UCLA UNDER 54.5 – 8 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
While both of these teams have strong offenses, the thing that has gone unnoticed is just how good both teams are defensively.
UCLA is ranked 5th in the country allowing under 255 yards per game. Oregon State is not far behind them, ranked 29th in the country allowing just over 325 yards per game.
The Oregon State defense has been especially strong at home where they have not allowed an opponent to reach 10 points yet on the season.
For the UCLA offense, disregard the game against NC Central where they put up 59 points and they are averaging just 23.5 points per game.
Both of these teams like to run the ball, and running means a moving clock and less plays. UCLA ranks 22nd in the country in rushing, while Oregon State ranks 15th. But both teams have strong run defenses, setting up what will be a grind for yards on the ground.
The UCLA run defense is ranked 3rd in the nation giving up under 65 yards per game and the Oregon State run defense is ranked 15th, allowing just over 96 yards per game.
Look for this to be a low scoring game as a result and play UNDER 54.5 on Saturday night.
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