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We had a solid week with our college football picks last time around, and we're hoping to keep the momentum going into this week.
We've got another awesome lineup for you with five expert picks that include a mix of spread and total bets.
Below you’ll find our picks for the best college football bets to make on Saturday (10/21) for Week 8 of the 2023 NCAAF season. Remember, you can always compare college football lines and odds by sportsbooks here.
Best College Football Week 8 Picks
Wake Forest -1 vs. Pittsburgh – 3:30 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
The line of Wake -1 offers some value, especially considering the public perception of Pitt has improved following their 38-21 win over a ranked Louisville team. Last week, Louisville was in a classic letdown spot after beating Notre Dame the previous week. Pitt capitalized on this to secure their first conference win of the season.
Now it is Wake Forest who can catch Pitt in a letdown spot and get their first conference win of the season on Saturday afternoon.
Wake Forest starting QB Mitch Griffis was benched during their loss to Virginia Tech last week and now should be motivated to show he has what it takes to be the starter as he gets another chance to lead the Wake Forest offense.
These two teams are pretty equal on the defensive side of the ball, but Wake has a clear advantage on the offensive side.
Pitt only averages 305.3 yards per game compared to Wake, which averages 370.2 yards per game.
Pitt switched at QB during their bye week and turned things over to Christian Veilleux. This will be his first true road start as a college quarterback, and while the atmosphere won’t be too tough, it’s still a tough spot to ask an inexperienced QB to lead a team that is not very good to a road victory.
Play Wake -1 on Saturday afternoon, as they should get the win at home over Pitt.
>> Use Our College Football Comparison Tool to Find the Best Lines & Odds for This Game
Baylor @ Cincinnati OVER 50 – 12 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
At first glance, it wouldn't be hard to assume that this may be a low-scoring game. Cincinnati has averaged only 14.3 points in their last three games, down from their season average of 26.7 points per game. Similarly, Baylor has scored just 18.6 points per game in their previous three, compared to a season average of 21.7.
Yet, a closer look at the statistics suggests a potential for a high-scoring affair.
Despite their low-scoring numbers, both teams can accumulate yards and find an offensive rhythm. Baylor averages 401 yards per game, and Cincinnati averages 444. Defensively, neither team seems capable of stymying the other, with Cincinnati allowing 334 yards per game and Baylor 390.
So, given the above numbers, we can assume there'll be a lot of yards put up in this game, but what about scoring? Both teams have struggled recently to put up points; why will this week be any different? The answer is 4th downs.
Both of these teams are extremely aggressive and tend to go for it on 4th down; Baylor goes for it 3.2 times a game, and Cincinnati goes for it 3 times a game, which are both in the top 17 in the country in that category. They also both have a tendency to fail those 4th down attempts, which ends drives and leads to lower scores; Baylor has a 31.25% success rate, and Cincinnati has a 40% success rate, which is near the bottom of the country.
What's important to note in this game is that defensively, these teams are both terrible at stopping fourth-down conversions. Cincinnati has a third-worst in Division 1 success rate of 87.50%, and Baylor's is seventh-worst at 77.78%
These numbers tell us we should expect more scoring drives for these teams this week.
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Utah +7 @ USC – 8 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
Last week, USC's defense was thoroughly exposed in their game against Notre Dame, resulting in a crushing 48-20 defeat.
Now, USC heads back home to face a Utah team that allows just 12.2 points per game.
USC will have just as much trouble getting points against the Utah defense as they did against the Notre Dame defense last week.
Utah is a run-oriented team, averaging over 172 yards per game on the ground this season. They'll be looking to control the clock and capitalize on USC's recent defensive shortcomings, as USC has allowed over 173 rushing yards per game in their last three outings.
While USC's explosive offense might still manage to rack up some points, they're in for a tough slog against Utah's stalwart defense.
Even though the Utah offense is not great, they will be able to score enough to keep it close, and most importantly, they will avoid making this game a shootout.
Play Utah +7 against USC on Saturday night.
>> Use Our College Football Comparison Tool to Find the Best Lines & Odds for This Game
Iowa -3.5 vs. Minnesota – 3:30 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
It is absolutely fascinating to watch the Iowa Hawkeyes play football this year; it's like being transported back in time to the fifties and sixties during the era of leather helmets and fullback-centered offenses.
Ever since Cade McNamara went down with an ACL injury, Iowa has embraced a throwback ground-and-pound offense, becoming even more run-reliant after tight end Erick All also suffered an ACL tear. QB Deacon Hill only threw for 37 yards last week against Wisconsin and has not thrown for over 120 in a game all season, but that hasn't kept Iowa from being a dominant force in the Big 10.
Leveraging a strong rushing duo in Leshon Williams (459 yards) and Kaleb Johnson (260 yards), complemented by a physical defense allowing just 14.9 points per game, Iowa has marched to a 6-1 record. Their only loss has come from 7th-ranked Penn State, and they've confidently dispatched teamslike Michigan State, Purdue, and Wisconsin by healthy margins.
Unlike Iowa, Minnesota has not had such a good run to start off the season. They've dropped 3 of their last 4 games and have struggled mightily on the defensive side of the ball, giving up an average of 36 points per game during that stretch. Even with Iowa's offensive woes, they should be able to manage a comfortable win against a struggling Minnesota team.
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Minnesota @ Iowa OVER 30.5 – 3:30 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
Yes, we all know this Iowa offense is historically bad, but the total for this game is simply too low.
The Minnesota defense allows everyone to score, including Northwestern, who put up 37 points against them a few weeks ago.
In fact, Minnesota's defense has allowed an average of 36 points per game over their last four games.
On the other hand, Iowa's games have hit over 30.5 points in six out of seven matchups this year. So, while the scoring has been low, this is too big an adjustment.
The Iowa defense is good, but Minnesota can score, as they are averaging 21.66 points per game.
Moreover, Iowa's offensive coordinator is contractually obligated to average 25 points per game this season, adding extra motivation for the team to perform well. Against a Minnesota defense that allows 373.2 yards per game, this seems like a feasible goal.
The trends also point to the over. Iowa has gone over the total in three of their last five home games, while Minnesota has exceeded the total in seven of their last ten road games.
Perhaps it’s the defense setting up some short fields or a defensive or special teams TD; it won’t take much to push the score over the total of 30.5 on Saturday afternoon.
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