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We had our first losing week of the college football season last week, but we're still up on the year, so we're expecting to turn things around on this slate of Saturday's games.
We're back this week with 5 picks from our team of experts including spread and total bets to make.
Below you’ll find our picks for the best college football bets to make on Saturday (10/7) for Week 6 of the 2023 NCAAF season. Remember, you can always compare college football lines and odds by sportsbooks here.
College Football Picks Record 2023: 14-13 (+1.41 units)
Best College Football Week 6 Picks
Texas vs. Oklahoma OVER 60.5 – 12 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
They call it the Red River Shootout, and the name will live up to its hype Saturday afternoon as I expect Texas and Oklahoma to put up quite a few points in this contest.
These two teams have averaged a combined 76 points per game over their last 8 meetings. Only once in the last 6 years has this game posted a score of less than 61 points and that was last year when Texas thoroughly dominated Oklahoma winning 49-0. Expect a much more competitive game this year.
Texas is averaging 36 points per game and that includes games against strong defenses like Wyoming and Alabama.
While the Texas defense has been strong this year, they have not come across an offense with the talent level of Oklahoma yet. The Sooners are averaging 47.4 points per game.
Both teams have top 30 defenses in yards allowed per game, but this will not be a game where either team sits back and plays defense to win.
Both teams have offenses in the top 20 in the country in yards per game.
Expect both teams to move the ball and score some points, play OVER 60.5 total points as I expect each team to easily score in the 30s in this one.
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Washington State ML (+146) @ UCLA – 3 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
I'm going with the underdog in this one, and I think for an underdog, Washington State is a pretty good one.
They have the 6th best offense regarding yards and the 5th when it comes to putting up points. They also beat the 19th-ranked team in Week 2 (Wisconsin) and the 14th-ranked team last week (Oregon State). They are the 13th-best team in the country currently.
UCLA, unlike Washington State, has not beaten a ranked team. In fact, they have yet to beat a Power 5 team this season. To be fair, they have only played 1 Power 5 team, but it was last week when they played dismally against division rival and 11th-ranked team, Utah.
It was a wake-up call for a team that sailed through their first 3 games behind star Freshman QB Dante Moore, who looked great but fell apart last week. He had a horrendous 10.7 QBR after putting up an average of 86.2 QBR over the first 3 weeks.
Utah's defense is indeed great, but they aren't invincible. Oregon State put up 21 points in a win against them last week, and you get the sense that dominant offenses can and will find ways to beat them, but UCLA is just not a dominant offense.
The real question in this game will be if the potent Cameron Ward-led offense of Washington State can find a way to get rolling against a UCLA defense that has only allowed 11 points per game this season.
They haven't had a real test, however, considering the fact that they've played Coastal Carolina, SDSU, North Carolina Central, and Utah, which each have offenses that are nowhere near the talent level of Washington State, even with their top receiver out with an injury.
Give me Washington State to pull off the upset at UCLA.
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Louisville +6.5 vs Notre Dame – 7:30 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
This is an absolutely terrible scheduling spot for Notre Dame. They are coming off a last-minute, come-from-behind win against Duke last week and have #9 USC waiting for them in South Bend next week, so we definitely have a look-ahead factor as well as the back-to-back road game situation working against Notre Dame.
Louisville has been a pleasant surprise to start 2023, they are 5-0 and play great defense, allowing just 17.2 points per game. The offense is ranked 11th in the nation, averaging 494.8 yards per game against some relatively decent competition. Other than Murray State in Week 2, all of Louisville’s games have been against Power 5 competition.
These teams don’t meet regularly, but Louisville has covered the last two times these met back in 2019 and 2020. Louisville is also on a dominant 8-2 ATS run in their last 10 home games.
Even with 3 games against non-Power 5 opponents, Notre Dame still ranks behind Louisville in yards per game.
Louisville will be able to score enough on the Notre Dame defense to keep this one close and cover the spread of +6.5. Louisville is also worth a small play on the moneyline as an upset Saturday night is not out of the question.
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Michigan @ Minnesota UNDER 46 – 7:30 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
One of the best indicators for whether a game will fall under the total is if the two teams have an excellent running game. More runs equal more time off the clock and less explosive quick plays that lead to big scores.
A strong running game also typically denotes a strong defensive team that focuses on limiting their opponents on offense and methodically executing on offense to win a low-scoring matchup. It's a common practice in Big Ten games.
This game is the epitome of that Big Ten style of running and defense. Minnesota has run for 193 yards per game and Michigan has run for 184 yards per game, and they both boast defenses that limit opposing teams to less than their average points scored.
Michigan, of course, has not given up more than a touchdown in any of their first five games, an incredible feat that puts their defense 1st in the nation in points allowed as well as 4th in the country in yards allowed.
Minnesota also has a decent defense. They've kept teams under their averages outside of their game against Northwestern and should likely keep Michigan around 30 points. What's more important to note, however, is Minnesota's lackluster offense which is rated far worse than some of the other offenses that Michigan has stymied.
I don't expect double digits to be put up by Minnesota in this one, so I'm going with the under.
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Purdue @ Iowa OVER 38 – 3:30 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
We are all well aware of the struggles Iowa has on offense and, as a result, we are getting some value here with this extremely low total of 38 points.
Iowa is averaging 22.2 points per game on the season, even when including being shut out against Penn State.
The good news for Iowa is the Purdue defense is not very good. They have given up 29.6 points per game so far on the season.
Iowa should be able to move the ball and get some points at home. They are going with Deacon Hill at QB after starter Cade McNamara injured his knee last week and is out for the season. Hill has now had the benefit of an entire week at practice with first team reps, giving him a chance to get on the same page as his receivers.
The Iowa offense had been struggling and a QB change may be just the reset this team needs. Hill can not only throw the ball, but he will make some plays with his legs too.
While the Iowa defense has been solid as usual this year, the Purdue offense is averaging 28 points per game on the season.
7 of the last 10 games between these two teams have had at least 39 points. Iowa has played 3 of their last 5 at home OVER and Purdue has played 3 of their last 5 on the road OVER.
Look for both teams to crack 20 points in this game and play OVER 38.
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