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We went 4-1 on our NFL best bets last week, picking up 2.64 units.
Let's see if we can keep it rolling this week with 5 more picks to make this Sunday, including 4 total bets and 1 spread bet.
Best NFL Week 14 Betting Picks
Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals OVER 43.5 – 1 pm ET
Jake Browning proved last week that he can lead the Bengals offense to big scores with a big win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. He went 32–37 with 327 passing yards and 2 total touchdowns on the way to an overtime win against the Jags.
He, along with the elite weapons at his disposal, absolutely cut through the Jaguars' defense with little problem, and now they play a slightly worse defense in the Colts, who give up 1.2 more points per game than the Jaguars this season.
The Colts had a similarly big win last week with an equally impressive offensive performance in a 31–28 victory against the Tennessee Titans. That game's high score was not an unfamiliar sight for Colts’ fans this season, with their club's games averaging 49.7 points per game (25 ppg scored offensively and 24.7 ppg allowed defensively).
This high points-per-game stat has led the Colts to an 8-4 over/under record over the course of the season and an even better 7-3 record in games where the O/U is under 45. The Colts have been able to score tons of points despite questions at QB and relatively subpar stats overall because of clutch play and great coaching by Shane Steichen.
I don't expect those trends to change this week.
Despite both these teams being forced to play their backup QBs down the stretch, these teams have found success and are both in the thick of the playoff picture. This should motivate these potent offenses to beat up on the opposing defenses, who each rank near the bottom of the league in points given up per game.
The Colts have the 6th-worst scoring defense with 24.7 ppg allowed, and the Bengals rank as the 11th-worst scoring defense with 22.8 ppg allowed.
This will likely be a high-scoring game. Hammer the Over.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Rams OVER 39.5 – 1 pm ET
We’re getting some good value here with a very low total based on a weather forecast that is calling for wind and rain throughout the game Sunday. The total has dropped 5 points from the opener of 44.5.
The Ravens offense has been really good at home this year averaging 31.2 points per game. Lamar Jackson continues to play at an elite level. He is completing over 68% of his passes and has thrown 13 touchdowns to just 5 interceptions.
The Ravens also have the best ground attack in the league averaging 158.6 yards per game, and the run game is much less likely to be impacted by any potential weather issues.
The Rams also have a respectable running attack, averaging 114.5 yards per game. The Rams offense, overall, has played well the last few weeks, putting up 73 points over their last 2 games.
While the weather may be a factor, it won’t hamper the Ravens ground game. It could also lead to some turnovers and short fields with opportunities for easy points.
Take advantage of the drop in the total and grab this one Over 39.5 points Sunday afternoon.
Cleveland Browns -3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – 1 pm ET
During last week's Monday Night Football game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals, it became apparent to me that the Jaguars were going to struggle against the Browns this week.
First and foremost, the Browns have only allowed 10 points per game at home and are rated the best defense in the league in their own stadium. This game is in Cleveland, which makes it likely that the Jaguars will struggle to put up points in the Browns' dominant D.
The injury to Trevor Lawrence is also a massive factor, as Myles Garrett and the Browns defense will likely get to tee off on C.J. Beathard who is dealing with his own injury problems and will likely not be 100%. The Jaguars also have Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Cam Robinson, and three starting defensive players all questionable with injuries as well.
Even if the Jaguars were completely healthy, I would still like the Browns in this game based on what I saw last week in both the Jaguars and Browns games. The Jaguars’ defense let Jake Browning sit in the pocket and find open zones for his receivers all game long with few adjustments.
Also, based on what I saw from Joe Flacco in their loss to the Rams last week, I am more than confident that he can duplicate, if not improve on Browning's impressive performance on this Jaguars’ secondary that looked lost out there on Monday night.
The Browns should be able to capitalize on home-field advantage and their Jaguars' unlucky injury streak in order to win big on Sunday.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 51.5 – 8:20 pm ET
When these teams met earlier this year, they hit 51 on the dot and that was with Dallas leaving some points on the board with failed forth down attempts deep in Eagles territory.
The bottom line is the Eagles defense got exposed last week against the 49ers. After holding the 49ers to negative total yardage in the 1st quarter, they proceeded to give up 6 straight touchdowns and over 450 yards in just 3 quarters. The 49ers did it with a strong ground game, working the ball to the receivers and TE George Kittle over the middle and a lot of yards after catch.
The Cowboys should be able to follow a similar formula against the Eagles defense Sunday night, especially through the air where the Eagles defense is allowing over 260 yards per game, 4th worst in the league. So this is a great matchup for the Dallas offense which is 3rd in the league in passing yards per game, putting up 263.4 yards per game.
The good news for the Eagles is they most certainly have the offensive firepower to keep up and a very questionable Cowboys defense. The Cowboys allowed 35 points to the Seahawks last week and 334 passing yards. That will be good news for QB Jalen Hurts and his talented WRs AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith.
The Cowboys are averaging 32.3 points per game on the season and the Eagles are averaging 27.4 points per game.
Look for this one to be a high scoring game, play the Over 51.5 on Sunday night.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys OVER 51.5 – 8:20 pm ET
The Cowboys have been simply dominant at home this season and have scored an insane 41 points per game at AT&T Stadium. Their offense has been nearly perfect, and their defense has also been responsible for 4 TDs and a safety, adding to their massive scoring tally at home for the season.
They have consistently run up the score in Dallas, resulting in a 5-1 Over/Under record at home, and it gives me confidence that even though the O/U is high, their dominance on offense should be enough to push this game into at least the mid-50s when it comes to points. We have seen numerous recent primetime games become barnburners, and I don't expect anything different in this one.
The Eagles had a rough game last week against the 49ers in which they only scored 19 points, but overall this season, they've scored 27.4 points per game, including a 28-point score in a win against the Cowboys at home a few weeks ago.
Last week was likely a fluke against a great defense and a suffocating offense that kept the ball out of Hurt's hands, and I believe that the Eagles should bounce back and put up plenty of points in this one. I think they will be able to keep up with the Cowboy's vaunted home offense and run up the score.
In terms of defense, these two teams are undoubtedly talented and can create turnovers, but they are not very effective at keeping their opponents off the scoreboard. The Eagles have allowed 24 points per game on defense, and the Cowboys have allowed 18.3 points per game, including a 35-point performance by the Seahawks last week.
This game should mirror that Seahawks game and be high scoring. Grab the Over.
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