Companies featured on this page may be our partners who compensate us if you sign up for one through our links. This doesn't affect our ratings or opinions in any way. Must be 21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. See full disclosure.
We went 4-2 on our Wild Card Weekend Best Bets last weekend and are looking to keep things rolling into the Divisional Round.
We've got two games on Saturday and two on Sunday—and we've got at least one pick for three of the four games.
You can always compare NFL lines and odds here to find the best deal currently available.
NFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets
- Houston Texans +9.5 @ Baltimore Ravens – Saturday, 4:30 pm ET
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans UNDER 44 – Saturday, 4:30 pm ET
- Detroit Lions -6.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Sunday, 3:00 pm ET
- Buffalo Bills -145 ML vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Saturday, 6:30 pm ET
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills UNDER 46 – Sunday, 6:30 pm ET
Houston Texans +9.5 @ Baltimore Ravens – Saturday, 4:30 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
Coleridge Bernard Stroud IV (yes, that is C.J.'s full name) is truly an anomaly among rookie QBs. The way he played against the typically dominant Browns' defense is a testament to his maturity and excellence in big-time situations.
He was exceptional last week at home against the Browns, but now he has to go to Baltimore to play the Ravens away from NRG Stadium, which, admittedly, has been a bit of a struggle for him. Stroud has a 17:4 TD-to-INT ratio and a passer rating of 108.3 at home compared to just a 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio and a passer rating of 91.5 on the road.
Despite these numbers, the Texans have played pretty well at home, splitting their 8 games 4-4 and beating 3 playoff bubble teams (Jaguars, Bengals, Colts). This game against the Ravens is clearly a different kind of matchup, but the Texans have perhaps the most momentum of any playoff team going into this week.
The Ravens are a Super Bowl favorite and an incredibly complete and balanced team with a dynamic offense and an exceptional defense that allowed only 18.5 points per game this season.
Their offense relies heavily on their run game, which was the 2nd-best in the league with 160 rushing yards per game. That might be considered bad news for the Texans, who had the worst run defense in the league (giving e up 170 rushing yards per game), but they are coming off a dominant defensive game last week in which they held the Browns to only 56 yards on 20 carries.
If the Texans can play even half well against the Ravens' rushing attack, they should be able to stay in this game until the bitter end. I’m grabbing the Texans with the points.
>> Use our NFL Odds & Lines Comparison Tool to find the best deal for this game
Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans UNDER 44 – Saturday, 4:30 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
These two teams squared off back in Week 1 and the final was 25-9 in favor of the Ravens.
The Texans put up 45 points in their Wild Card win over the Browns, but 14 of those points were thanks to the defense. They struggled to run the ball and lost the time of possession battle by over 10 minutes.
They relied on quick-hitting touchdown drives that won’t be there against the Ravens.
The Ravens allow just over 300 yards per game, good for 6th best in the league, and they allow just 16.5 points per game, best in the NFL. The Texans will have to work a lot harder for their points against the Ravens than they did last week.
The wind will also be an issue for C.J. Stroud and the Texans' 7th-ranked passing offense. Sustained winds will be 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 30 mph throughout the game. It is also going to be cold, with wind chills in the single digits. The Texans don’t have a strong run game to turn to, ranking just 23rd in rushing during the season.
The Ravens have the best ground game in the league, in part thanks to QB Lamar Jackson. They are averaging over 156 yards per game on the ground and rushing is exactly what they will need to do given the conditions Saturday evening.
The Texans’ defense is strong against the run, ranking 6th, giving up just 96.9 yards per game, though I expect the Ravens to stay committed to the run, which will keep the clock moving and shorten the game.
8 of the last 10 games between these two teams have gone Under. Look for that to continue on Saturday in the Divisional Round.
>> Use our NFL Odds & Lines Comparison Tool to find the best deal for this game
Offers from our partners
Detroit Lions -6.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Sunday, 3:00 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
The Buccaneers are the weakest team still playing at this point in the season, and the statistics throughout the season back this up.
Offensively, they are the worst team still alive in both points scored (20.5 ppg; the next worst is the Chiefs with 21.8 ppg) and yards gained (313 ypg; the next worst is the Texans with 342 ypg).
Defensively, they are the worst team still alive based on yards given up (344 ypg; the next worst is the Lions at 336 ypg) but are in the middle of the pack in terms of points given up (19.1 points allowed per game).
The Lions didn't dominate last week, but they still played a solid game, especially in the first half, where they started the game scoring 3 straight touchdowns. The city of Detroit had Ford Field absolutely rocking, which propelled the Lions to a close win in what became their first playoff win in over 30 years.
Now that they have broken through the drought and gotten some of their young players comfortable with the playoff atmosphere, they should have no trouble beating a less talented Buccaneers team.
Baker Mayfield has proven to be a legit starter in the NFL, and he has brought this Bucs team to places no one expected them to be, but they coasted to an easy home win last week to a lethargic and uninspired Eagles team.
The Lions, on the other hand, proved their grit and toughness in a tight game against the Rams and should have the momentum and talent to blow away the Bucs.
>> Use our NFL Odds & Lines Comparison Tool to find the best deal for this game
Buffalo Bills -145 ML vs. Kansas City Chiefs – Sunday, 6:30 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
The Chiefs simply have not looked like the same team that won the Super Bowl last year, especially on offense.QB Patrick Mahomes does not have the same offensive weapons to work with as he has in the past. The Chiefs WRs have struggled this year, with their top three combining for just 1,713 yards on the year. Compare that to Buffalo, where their top three WRs have combined for over 2,500 yards.
The Chiefs like to rely on TE Travis Kelce, but the Bills have done a good job against opposing tight ends this year. They are allowing just 44.5 yards per game to tight ends and only 3 touchdowns on the season.
The Chiefs' run game is average at best, putting up under 105 yards per game, good for 19th in the league.
The Bills come into this one 7th in the league in rushing, with 130.1 yards per game. That is good news given the cold and windy conditions that are expected Sunday night in Buffalo. The winds are expected to be around 10 mph, with gusts to 25 mph and it will feel between 10 and 12 degrees come kickoff.
The Chiefs have a -11 turnover differential on the year, ranking 27th in the league, compared to the Bills who are +2 in turnovers on the year.
Josh Allen and the Bills come into this one winners of 6 straight as they have gotten hot at just the right time. The teams are about equal on defense, but the Bills have a clear edge on offense. The Bills have won 3 of their last 4 against the Chiefs. Look for it to be 4 of 5 as they pick up the win Sunday night and advance to the AFC Championship Game.
>> Use our NFL Odds & Lines Comparison Tool to find the best deal for this game
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills UNDER 46 – Sunday, 6:30 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
In the last few years, we have gotten used to Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs offense destroying opposing defenses to prop up a young and sometimes dysfunctional defense. This year, the roles are reversed, as the Chiefs’ defense is the one that has contributed more to their wins as their offense has struggled this season compared to previous years.
This dynamic has led to only 4 of the Chiefs’ 18 games exceeding 46 total combined points. The Bills have only had 6 of their 18 games exceed 46 total combined points. With 3 pushes between the 2 teams, that leaves their record at 10-23 (30%).
The weather will also add to the chances that this will be a low-scoring game. It is snowing again in Buffalo this week and will have accumulated roughly 2 to 3 feet of snow by Sunday when the snow is predicted to stop just in time for the game.
The Bills’ staff and fans were able to clear the field and the seats last week. It won't be nearly as cold as it was during Kansas City's last game, so the weather may play less of a factor in this game than people think, but given these teams’ stout defenses, it might put an extra damper on the offenses.
Both defenses are in the top 10 in the least amount of yards given up per game. The Chiefs are 2nd-best at 290 and the Bills are the 9th-best at 307). In terms of points allowed per game, the Chiefs have 2nd-best defense (allowing only 17.3 ppg), and the Bills have the 4th-best defense (18.3 ppg).
I think this will be a defense-centric game, with most of the scoring coming in the 4th quarter. I’m grabbing Under 46 for this AFC matchup.
>> Use our NFL Odds & Lines Comparison Tool to find the best deal for this game
Offers from our partners
