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The NFL is BACK and we've got fresh picks for you every week of the season. Our team will be releasing our picks for the best NFL bets for Sunday games to hopefully help you win more.
Below you'll find our picks for the best NFL bets to make on Sunday (9/10) for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season. Remember, you can always compare NFL lines and odds by sportsbooks here.
Best NFL Week 1 Betting Picks
Atlanta Falcons -3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers – 1 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
It's the beginning of the Bryce Young era in Carolina, but don't be surprised if it gets off to a rocky start this Sunday. I think Young may have a bit of a “welcome to the NFL” moment this week as he starts his career off by trying to lead a ragtag offense against a scary-looking Falcons defense.
The story of the game is going to be about all the additions made in the offseason by both teams. The Falcons supercharged their defense with the additions of Calais Campbell, David Onyemata, Bud Dupree, Kaden Elliss, Jeff Okudah, and Jessie Bates III, among others.
The Panthers, on the other hand, scrambled to put together a collection of journeymen, role players, and draft busts to build around their star number 1 pick. The Panthers tried to surround Bryce Young with as many playmakers as possible, but that quantity-over-quality mindset left them with underwhelming skill players.
Miles Sanders is clearly the best Panthers skill player, coming off a great season where he ran for 1,269 yards, but that was behind the best offensive line in the league. Now he's running behind an average line, and instead of A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith opening up defenses for him, he now has Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark.
Sanders won't be nearly as dangerous as he was last season, and with an offense that doesn't have much other than him (Chuba Hubbard, Adam Thielen, D.J. Chark, Jonathan Mingo, and Hayden Hurst are their other starting weapons), it should be easy for the Falcons D to tee off against this offense and set the stage for Bijan Robinson to really shine in his first NFL game.
The Falcons rookie running back should be the engine that drives this game to an easy Falcons victory. I expect a quick, low-scoring game where the Panthers get held to under 14 points, and Bijan powers the Falcons to at least 3 touchdowns.
Chicago Bears -1 vs. Green Bay Packers – 4:25 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
The Bears and Packers get together for an NFC North Divisional showdown to open the 2023 season.
The Bears offense has really come to life under Justin Fields last year, who is a real dual-threat quarterback. Last year he did not have much talent to work with at the receiver position, but that changes this year with the addition of DJ Moore.
They should continue to rely on the ground game between Fields and a strong crop of running backs.
The strong ground game, especially with Fields' ability to create plays, will mitigate some concerns the Bears have on the offensive line. And it’s a great matchup for the Bears run offensive against a Packers defense that ranked near the bottom of the league against the run last year.
The Packers will begin the Jordan Love era in 2023. That spells some good news for a weak Chicago defense. In addition to being inexperienced as a quarterback, Love has to work with a very young and inexperienced group of receivers.
Opening the season on the road in Soldier Field will be too much for an inexperienced Packers offense. Look for the Bears to be able to outscore them and pick up a win to open the 2023 season.
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New Orleans Saints -3 vs. Tennessee Titans – 1 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
Early in the year, it is sometimes difficult to gauge how good or bad a team really is. This is definitely true for these two teams.
They both seem very average, with QBs who have very clear ceilings and defenses that are above average but aren't elite. In a lot of ways, these two teams are extremely similar, and the difference in this game may be small things like home-field advantage, veteran wisdom, consistency, and momentum.
A big advantage that I think the Saints have in this game is offensive line consistency. The Saints line is essentially unchanged from last year, and all 5 starters are solid and consistent.
That's compared to the Titans' offensive line, which has been disappointing over the last few years and finally hit the reset button this offseason when they released star left tackle Taylor Lewan. The Titans will be trotting out a line on Sunday that is Essentially duct-taped together with aging veterans and inexperienced youngsters.
Given the Saints' better offensive line, home-field advantage, better passing attack, and the veteran defensive leadership from Cam Jordan, Demario Davis, and Marshon Lattimore, I believe they have a very good chance of beating the Titans by more than a field goal. The Saints are the more put-together team.
Denver Broncos -3 vs. Las Vegas Raiders – 4:25 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
The Sean Payton reign begins in Denver, and he is just the guy to turn things around with Russell Wilson.
Wilson struggled mightily in 2022 and, as a result, so did the Broncos.
The Broncos will look to focus more on the ground attack this year and take some of the pressure off Wilson, who still has a good group of receivers to work with in Jerry Jeudy and Cortland Sutton.
On the other side, the Raiders may take some time to really get things going. Jimmy Garoppolo will take over the starting QB role but missed some offseason time as he recovered from a foot injury suffered last season. Then there is Josh Jacobs who missed nearly the entire preseason while holding out from camp. He is back in the fold now, but whether or not he is ready to hit the ground running is another question.
Denver had a top-10 rushing defense last year so it won’t be easy for Jacobs to just get on the field and go.
While the Raiders have controlled this series in recent years, things are different now and the Broncos have a great chance to start things strong for their new head coach at home.
The Raiders have struggled on the road going 3-7 ATS in their last 10. Look for that trend to continue Sunday as the Broncos grab the win and cover to open 2023.
Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers OVER 51 – 4:25 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
Get ready for some offense! Both of these teams are offensive powerhouses, focused on speed and big splash passing games that will surely run up the score in a hurry. The offenses of both teams can score from any point on the field, and I don't expect either of the defenses to put up much of a fight.
Not only did the Chargers add two explosive TCU receivers in the draft (Quentin Johnston and Derius Davis), but they also added Kellen Moore as their offensive Coordinator. The mastermind behind the offensive success of the Cowboys in the Dak Prescott era, Kellen Moore is known for his spread offenses and scheming guys open with a high-powered passing attack supplemented with an effective running game that helped Tony Pollard become one of the best yards-per-rush RB in the league. Austin Ekeler should thrive even more than he did last year, and the Charger's should be able to ride him in both the run and pass game for a lot of scoring this year.
On the Dolphins' side of the ball, you have Tua Tagovailoa and his health concerns to consider, but assuming he is healthy, which all indications appear to show that he is, he and his armory of speed freaks should be able to keep pace with the Chargers in this one easily. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle can take the top off the admittedly great Chargers' defense and allow their speedy runners (Raheem Mostert, Devon Achane, and Salvon Ahmed) to run wild in Mike McDaniels' offensive system.
The Dolphins' defense is up and coming and is under the new leadership of Vic Fangio, and the Chargers' defense is rock solid with a great secondary, including JC Jackson, Asante Samuel Jr., Derwin James, and Alohi Gilman. They also have the edges set with Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack.
Despite the good defenses, they are nothing compared to the dominant offenses of these teams. I think this game will absolutely be high scoring.
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