NFL Week 13 Picks – Sunday Best Bets

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We're hitting the final stretch of the NFL season and almost every game has some sort of playoff implications at this point.

Our experts are all over it, coming through with 5 picks for Sunday. We've got spreads, we've got totals—all the good stuff to get you geared up for a successful NFL betting weekend.

Below you’ll find our picks for the best NFL bets to make on Sunday (12/3) for Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season. Remember, you can always compare NFL lines and odds by sportsbooks here.

Best NFL Week 13 Betting Picks

Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots UNDER 40.5 – 1 pm ET

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

We don't know who the starting QB for the Patriots will be on Sunday, but regardless, I don't expect it to make a huge difference in their offensive production.

The Pats have scored just 10 points a game in their last 3 matchups, and there has been no indication that that trend will change going forward. Their running game has been okay, but their air attack has been virtually nonexistent and extremely accident-prone. It wouldn't be unfair to say that the Patriots might have the worst offense in the NFL right now.

The Pats’ defense, however, is actually quite competitive. They've given up just 22.5 points per game, and are great at getting off the field after 3rd downs (allowing just a 39% 3rd down conversion rate).

As for the Chargers' role in this game, I don't doubt that they will be able to put up a few touchdowns, but they are limited in the fact that they really only have 2 playmakers (Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen). If the Patriots can shut one of them down, we could see this game be a low-scoring defensive battle similar to the Patriots last 2 matchups.

The Chargers have scored 24.5 points per game this season, but they only scored 20 against the Packers 2 weeks ago, followed by just 10 last week against the Ravens. The Chargers have struggled to get their offense going recently and I think this week will be no different. I expect a low scoring game.

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Philadelphia Eagles +3 vs. San Francisco 49ers – 4:25 pm ET

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

This line has moved quite a bit and now the Eagles are getting a full field goal at home against the 49ers.

Yes, the Eagles are in the middle of a brutal stretch of games, but this is one of the better spots during that stretch as they are playing a 2nd-consecutive home game.

The 49ers have a few extra days of rest, but have to travel across the country to a hostile environment.

Both of these teams have really good run defenses, which means it this comes down to which quarterback can make more plays and you still have to trust Jalen Hurts more than Brock Purdy.

The Eagles have one of the best offensive lines in football, which will help neutralize the 49ers’ pass rush and, of course, the speed of Jalen Hurts will help avoid the pressure even if the 49ers do get through the line.

This is a game where the 49ers will really miss All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga, as the Eagles will work the ball downfield to AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith.

This will be a very close game between two teams battling for home field advantage in the NFC, but until the 49ers prove they can win a big game like this, you have to go with the team that has proven they can do it time and time again, especially at home.

Take the Eagles +3.

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Atlanta Falcons -1.5 @ New York Jets – 1 pm ET

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

Believe it or not, but the Falcons are in first place in their division.

The big caveat to that statement is that their division is the NFC South and currently no NFC South team has a winning record. Regardless of that fact, the Falcons take the prestige of being a 1st-place team into this week where they play the Jets.

The Falcons utilized a Week 11 bye to help win last week against the Saints and snap a previous 3-game losing streak. The Falcons ran down the Saints' throat and put up an incredible 228 rush yards in order to fully dominate at home. They will be looking to duplicate that effort this week in New Jersey.

The Jets’ overall defense is pretty good, with individual talent all over the field, but the one thing the Jets have struggled with the most has been limiting the run. The Jets have allowed 140 rushing yards per game this season (2nd most in the league).

Compare that to Atlanta's 139 offensive rushing yards gained per game (4th most in the league), and you get a recipe for a potential rushing frenzy by Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, Desmond Ridder, and the other Falcons runners.

If the Falcons can exploit their advantage in the running game this week, which I strongly believe they can, they should be in for a big win. The Jets have been unimpressive on offense all season, putting up 14.8 points per game, but especially lately, when they've only put up 10 points a game in their last 5 matchups.

The Jets do not have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Falcons rushing game; this should be an easy win for Atlanta.

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Green Bay Packers +6.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs – 8:20 pm ET

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

From a scheduling perspective, this is a great spot for the Packers. They have the rest advantage having played on Thanksgiving Day. This is also the 2nd-consecutive road game for the Chiefs, who played in Las Vegas last weekend.

Packers QB Jordan Love is continuing to develop and improve as the season goes along. He has thrown for over 1,100 yards, 8 touchdowns, and just 2 interceptions in his last 4 games, of which the Packers have won 3.

Of the Packers 6 losses, only 2 have been by more than 4 points this season.

Statistically, the teams are not as far apart as the records indicate. The Chiefs allow 290 yards per game, the Packers allow 340 yards per game.

Offensively, the Chiefs are averaging 364 yards per game, the Packers are averaging 325 yards per game.

While Patrick Mahomes is still one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, he is not playing at the same level he has in the past. He already has 9 interceptions on the season and the Chiefs are -5 in turnover differential. He has managed to throw for over 300 yards only 3 times this season.

Look for a closer-than-expected game Sunday night and grab the Packers +6.5.

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Kansas City Chiefs @ Green Bay Packers OVER 42 – 8:20 pm ET

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

Green Bay was very impressive offensively on Thanksgiving, where Jordan Love threw for 3 TDs and had over 300 all-purpose yards. Love has been getting better each game this season, and he is getting everybody involved in their offense. When you look at what the Packers have done recently, it actually looks a lot like the Chiefs.

Both the Packers and Chiefs have multiple running options as well as a plethora of receiving options. Each team has 14 separate players with at least 1 catch this season and the Chiefs have 9 players with 10 or more receptions while the Packers have 7.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see huge offensive production from both teams in this game just based on the sheer number of playmakers that each team possesses.

While the Chiefs have a good defense (16.5 points allowed per game), you have to remember that they are still a very young group that can be undisciplined at times. There's a very good chance that the Packers will be able to find and exploit at least one weakness in their D.

As for the Chiefs offense, I am not worried about them being able to light up the scoreboard against the Packers hobbled secondary.

Expect a lot of points in this one and take the over.

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