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We went 0-2 on our NFL Week 17 opening line picks after the Eagles and Bucs both surprisingly lost outright.
We just have one early pick this week since a lot of news hasn't come out yet on which teams will be playing their starters.
As always, you can see all of our current and historical NFL picks in our Best NFL Bets & Picks Guide. You can also compare NFL lines and odds by sportsbooks here.
Miami Dolphins +3 vs. Buffalo Bills – 8:20 pm ET
The stakes in this game could not be higher. The Dolphins will be the #2 seed in the AFC with a win but, with a loss, will be 5 or 6 and likely be on the road for the duration of their playoff run.
On the other side, Buffalo would win the AFC East and be the #2 seed with a win, but with a loss, there is an outside chance they could miss the playoffs altogether.
These teams are very evenly matched both offensively and defensively. The one area where Miami has a slight advantage offensively is their run game, which ranks 5th in the league with over 137 yards per game, against the Buffalo run defense, which is just middle of the pack giving up over 110 yards per game.
The Bills have struggled on the road this season, winning just 3 games away from home and only one by more than a field goal to the lowly Commanders. They beat the Chiefs on the road by 3 and struggled to beat the Chargers by 2.
Miami, meanwhile, has been great at home, dropping just one game on the season, a shocking 28-27 loss to the Titans in which they were up by 13 points late in the fourth quarter.
Look for this to be a very close game that comes down to the wire. I want to be on the side of the home team that is getting a FG against a team that struggles on the road.
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