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We went 1-1 on our NFL Week 16 opening line picks after CJ Stroud was surprisingly ruled out, pretty much ruining that pick from the start.
Let's see if we can get back to profitability this week with two more opening line picks to make now before the lines move—two spread bets for this week.
You can see all of our current and historical NFL picks in our Best NFL Bets & Picks Guide. You can also compare NFL lines and odds by sportsbooks here.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs. New Orleans Saints – 1 pm ET
Tampa Bay is playing their best football of the season at exactly the right time. They have won 4 straight games and have a good shot of winning the NFC South.
Tampa QB Baker Mayfield is playing extremely well, throwing 9 touchdowns and just 1 interception during the win streak.
These two teams met back in Week 4 and Tampa won on the road in New Orleans 26-9. Tampa has won 4 of the last 6 meetings between these two teams.
Tampa is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games, while New Orleans is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10.
The Saints have struggled on the road this year going just 3-5 away from home with two of those wins coming against two of the worst teams in the league, the Patriots and Panthers.
This is the time of year, I really like to look at strength of victory when you have two teams with close records and, in this case, the edge goes to Tampa Bay. Their 8 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 49-71, while New Orleans has their 7 wins against teams that are a combined 32-73.
This game opened up at -2.5 and quickly got bet up to -3, despite more of the tickets and money being on the Saints. Going to follow the line move on this one and grab Tampa at -3 to get the win and cover Sunday afternoon.
Philadelphia Eagles -10.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals – 1 pm ET
The Eagles came up short of covering against the Giants on Sunday, but still got the win 33-25. This is a game where the final score is not indicative of just how dominant the Eagles were.
The Eagles had nearly a 10-minute advantage in time of possession, twice as many first downs as the Giants, and outgained them by nearly 175 yards.
The Eagles' problem was turnovers. They gifted the Giants 7 points on a short field to open the 3rd quarter and followed that up with a pick 6 when they were deep in Giants’ territory and looking to put the game away.
Now they will face an Arizona team that is flat out bad and traveling across the country to play a cold-weather game.
The Eagles ended up being nearly a 2-touchdown favorite against the Giants by kickoff, so for them to be favored by less than that against the Cardinals simply makes no sense. It is too big of an adjustment based off some bad luck on the Eagles part last week.
The Eagles’ offense appeared to get back on track last week and should have no trouble scoring against a Cardinals’ defense that ranks 31st in the league, giving up 26.9 points per game.
Despite the Eagles’ recent struggles, they are in a great spot to win the NFC East and still have a chance at home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Look for them to put together a complete game and win and cover on Sunday afternoon.
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