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We had another winning week last week, going 3-2 on our college football best bets. We're looking to bring that same energy as we approach the final stretch of the season.
Our experts have lined up another 5 picks, including spreads and totals, for this week’s action.
Below you’ll find our picks for the best college football bets to make on Saturday (11/4) for Week 10 of the 2023 NCAAF season. Remember, you can always compare college football lines and odds by sportsbooks here.
Best College Football Week 10 Picks
Iowa St -2.5 vs. Kansas – 7 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
Here we have a classic letdown spot for Kansas coming off a huge upset win at home over Oklahoma last week.
Now they have to travel to play an Iowa State team that has improved dramatically since an embarrassing 10-7 home loss to Ohio earlier this season. Since that loss, they have won 4 of 5 and shown a lot of improvement on offense, averaging 28.2 points per game in their last 5 games, after averaging just 16.7 points per game in their first 3 games.
Defensively, Iowa State is allowing just 19.8 points per game, compared to Kansas who is giving up 28.1 points per game and over 400 yards per game.
The Kansas run defense is especially suspect, as they allow nearly 175 rush yards against per game.
That will help Iowa State control the game more and keep the Kansas offense off the field, which will prevent this one from becoming a shootout.
Kansas will continue be without starting QB Jalon Daniels and will rely on backup Jason Bean again in this one.
Kansas has not done well on the road or an underdog recently. They are 3-7 in their last 10 ATS on the road and just 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 as an underdog.
Believe it or not there is still a path for Iowa State to play in the Big 12 title game and that starts with a win and cover against a Kansas team that is prime for an upset.
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Kansas State @ Texas OVER 49 – 12 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
This is a classic Big 12 matchup of two teams vying for a spot in the conference championship game.
For Texas, this game also has huge playoff implications and could be a critical win in a stretch of must-win games, or it could be the knockout punch that ends their run. Texas has already beaten two ranked teams this season, putting up an average of 37 points in each of those wins, but they also lost to Oklahoma a few weeks ago in the Red River Rivalry by a score of 34-to-30.
The main commonality between the three games is that they were high scoring by both Oklahoma and their opponents with the average total score for these ranked games being 58.7 points.
Kansas State has not played a ranked team yet but is no stranger to putting up big scores in tough games. Their lowest score was 21 points when they lost by 8 to Oklahoma State. They've scored at least 38 points in each of their 6 wins (their other loss was a 30-to-27 point game against Missouri).
Frankly, neither of these teams is in any danger of being shut out, which seems to be the only way either of these teams ends up in games that score less than 50 because both teams have such reliable and potent offenses that even if one of them had an outstanding defensive performance on Saturday, it still wouldn't make a difference. This should be a high scoring game.
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Alabama vs. LSU UNDER 61.5 – 7:45 pm
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
This is a clash of heavyweights in the SEC West.
Alabama has gotten back on track behind the strong play of their defense since losing to Texas back in Week 2. Since that game they have allowed just over 15 points per game.
The Alabama defense ranks 17th in the country, giving up just 306.4 yards per game.
So don’t expect LSU and their high-powered offense to be scoring at will on Saturday night.
Also the Alabama offense has not been nearly as explosive this year as they have been in past seasons. Look for them to try and control the clock and keep the LSU offense on the sideline.
The LSU defense allows 156.5 yards per game rushing, so there is a good chance Alabama will be able to move the ball on the ground.
Only 1 of the last 5 games in Tuscaloosa between these 2 teams has seen more than 55 points scored.
LSU has played 10 in a row to the over, but when they get in to the roll of underdog, they are an even 5-5 on the over/under in their last 10 games.
Look for the Alabama defense to keep LSU check, control the pace on offense and keep this one UNDER 61.5 on Saturday night.
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SMU -12 @ Rice – 7:30 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
18, 21, 55, and 59.
Those are the amounts by which SMU has won each of their last four games, getting better each week and cementing them as a true contender in the AAC.
They've scored the most points in the conference and have allowed the least amount of points in the conference by a whopping 43 points. When it comes to point differential, SMU has an incredible +212 points.
Contrast that with Rice's +44, which ranks in the middle of the pack in the AAC, and you get an unbalanced game that could be a total and complete domination by the Mustangs over the Owls.
Rice surprised some people with a second-half surge that nearly propelled them to a win against a 22nd-ranked Tulane team, which happens to be the one team above SMU in the AAC rankings. They are above SMU thanks to two Mustang losses early in the season against TCU and Oklahoma (very really solid non-conference opponents).
Since then, SMU has looked unstoppable and should be able to keep Rice from coming back like Tulane, especially given the fact that SMU has only given up 36 points in four conference games.
If you use East Carolina as a gauge to match these two teams, you can see that SMU should have a good shot at a two touchdown lead as they beat ECU by 21 while Rice only beat ECU by 7, and that was an unusually poor offensive performance by SMU that has been fixed since then, putting up 124 points in the last two weeks.
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Oklahoma State +6 vs. Oklahoma – 3:30 pm
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
This will be the final edition of Bedlam for the foreseeable future as Oklahoma heads off to the SEC after this season and there is nothing more Oklahoma State would like than to claim victory in their final meeting as conference rivals.
And they are in a good position to do just that on Saturday afternoon.
Oklahoma is in a tough spot, playing in the 2nd of back-to-back road games and coming off a loss to Kansas that put a major dent in their playoff hopes.
Oklahoma State has really turned their season around since a shocking blowout home loss to South Alabama back in Week 3. They have rattled off 4 straight wins since their bye week and have averaged 40.25 points in that span. They have done so behind the strong running of RB Ollie Gordon who has 553 yards and 6 rushing touchdowns in his last 2 games.
Offensively, Oklahoma is averaging 489 yards per game, but Oklahoma State is not that far behind at 429 yards per game.
Defensively there is not a huge difference either, Oklahoma allows 370 yards per game and Oklahoma State is giving up 409 yards per game.
Look for the final edition of Bedlam to provide a lot of drama and a close game that comes down to the wire.
Take Oklahoma State +6 on Saturday afternoon.
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