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Last week threw us a curveball, especially with that surprising Iowa St. loss, leaving us at 2-3 on our picks. But that's part of the game.
We’re shaking that off and setting our sights on a strong comeback this week. We've lined up 5 new picks featuring a mix of spreads and totals. With the CFB season nearing its grand finale, let's make the most of these final games and go out with a bang!
Below you’ll find our picks for the best college football bets to make on Saturday (11/11) for Week 11 of the 2023 NCAAF season. Remember, you can always compare college football lines and odds by sportsbooks here.
Best College Football Week 11 Picks
Central Florida +2.5 vs. Oklahoma State – 3:30 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
This is a great situational spot to play against Oklahoma State on Saturday afternoon as they come off a huge win against Oklahoma to close out Bedlam for the foreseeable future.
Now Oklahoma State has to go on the road to play a UCF team that needs a win in a big way as they fight to obtain bowl eligibility this season.
UFC has had a few tough games go against them including a 1-point loss to Baylor and a 2-point loss on the road at Oklahoma. So despite the 4-5 record they are a very solid football. In fact, they rank better statistically than Oklahoma State on both offense and defense.
Offensively, UCF is averaging 483.7 yards per game and 32.4 points per game compared to Oklahoma State at 434.7 yards per game and 30.7 yards per game.
On defense UCF is allowing 414.4 yards per game, while Oklahoma State is giving up 418.4 yards per game.
UCF QB John Rhys Plumlee is back and showing more mobility since suffering a knee injury earlier this year.
Look for Oklahoma State to be on major upset alert Saturday afternoon. Play UCF +2.5.
>> Use Our College Football Comparison Tool to Find the Best Lines & Odds for This Game
Old Dominion +13.5 @ Liberty – 11:00 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
Liberty likes to run up the score as much as they can, but Old Dominion can also put up points in a hurry. Liberty scores an average of 39.1 points per game against FBS opponents while Old Dominion scores 26.3, a difference of 12.8, awfully close to the 13.5 mark, but don't let that scare you.
Old Dominion has a more than decent shot at staying within 13.5 points of Liberty despite the average point differential.
Old Dominion is 4-5 on the season, but over those 5 losses, they've only lost by an average of 7 points. They are 6-2 against the spread and have been in every game at the end except for their opener against Virginia Tech.
Their recent games have also been against great competition as well; they beat Appalachian State 3 weeks ago and nearly beat 6-3 Coastal Carolina last week. Their most impressive performance, however, came in a 3-point loss to undefeated James Madison, who was ranked 25 in the nation at the time.
James Madison is an excellent gauge of what Old Dominion will face this week in the Liberty Owls. Like James Madison, Liberty is an up-and-coming small school with an explosive offense that has propelled them to an undefeated season so far.
Liberty is more of a run-based offense, while James Madison tends to air it out a bit more, but given that Old Dominion has a rush defense in the top 25% of FBS, it's possible that Old Dominion does better at limiting Liberty's scoring rather than James Madison.
>> Use Our College Football Comparison Tool to Find the Best Lines & Odds for This Game
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Auburn @ Arkansas OVER 48 – 4:00 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
When these two teams get together, points usually follow.
This line opened at 45.5 and has been bet up to 48 despite most of the money and tickets being on the under.
7 of the last 8 games in this series have gone over the total. In fact the last 10 games between these 2 teams have seen average of 63.4 points per game.
Both teams have been averaging over 27 points per game this season and there is no reason to think either offense will underperform this weekend.
Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson will look to improve upon his best game of the season last week when he threw for 255 yards and a pair of touchdowns and rushed for 92 yards and another touchdown in a 39-36 win over Florida.
Auburn is coming off a 31-point showing against Vanderbilt that included RB Jarquez Hunter rushing for 183 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has now rushed for over 100 yards in back-to-back weeks.
Look for both teams to score some points again Saturday and play this game OVER 48.
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Florida @ LSU OVER 63.5 – 7:30 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
The over on LSU games has been a good bet so far this year; in fact, it's been a perfect bet. They are 9-0 on the over this year.
Florida has also been a good over pick recently after starting out the season with 4 straight games failing to go over (3 unders and one push); they've been on a 5-game streak of high-scoring games.
This is the highest total target for Florida this season, but they've gotten over 64 points in 2 of their last 3 games, and it was nearly 3 of 3, if they had scored just 1 more point against Georgia 2 weeks ago. LSU has consistently been in high-scoring games all season, with 6 of their 9 games going over 64 points.
In terms of offensive yards per game, LSU ranks the best in the nation with 535 yards per game on average this season. They also allow 418 yards per game. In terms of scoring, LSU is 3rd best in the country with 41.9 points scored per game, while they allow 30.5 points per game.
Florida, on the other hand, has less eye-popping numbers, but they are still above average in FBS. Florida has gained 409 yards and scored 32.3 points per game on offense in the last 3 weeks, and defensively, they allowed 477.3 yards per game and 40.3 points per game.
If you average these numbers out, you get 41 points for LSU on 506 yards, and for Florida you get 31 points on 414 yards.
Do I think LSU will win? No.
But I believe these numbers give us a statistical approximation of the type of high-scoring shootout we should expect from this game.
>> Use Our College Football Comparison Tool to Find the Best Lines & Odds for This Game
Clemson -14.5 vs Georgia Tech – 12 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
The Clemson Tigers come in to this one off a big win against Notre Dame and despite having a disappointing season, Coach Dabo Swinney still has the Tigers playing inspired football.
Clemson has dominated this series recently winning 9 of the last 10 games between the teams. The average margin of victory in the 9 wins has been over 27 points per game.
Clemson has the 6th best defense in the country, allowing just 273.8 yards per game. They have actually outgained their opponents in 3 of their 4 losses this season.
They should have no trouble gaining yards and scoring points against Georgia Tech. They are the fifth-worst defense in college football, allowing a whopping 455.2 yards per game. They have the second-worst run defense, allowing 220 yards per game.
Look for Clemson to control this game at the line of scrimmage and impose their will against Georgia Tech.
Against a good Clemson defense, it will be very tough for Georgia Tech to keep up and score enough points to make this a close game.
Look for a comfortable Clemson win and cover Saturday afternoon, lay the -14.5 points.
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