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We went 4-1 on our best college football bets last week, headlined by 2 huge wins from Clemson and UCF.
Let's see if we can keep it rolling in Week 12 with 5 NCAAF picks from our team of experts.
Remember, you can always compare college football lines and odds by sportsbooks here. You can also see all of our current and past college football betting picks here.
Best College Football Week 12 Picks
Clemson -6.5 vs. North Carolina – 3:30 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
This is a story of two teams heading in two different directions as the season comes to a close.
Clemson has righted the ship since losing back-to-back road games to drop to 4-4 on the season. Since then, they have wins against Notre Dame and Georgia Tech and now play a third-consecutive home game this week.
Meanwhile, North Carolina has continued to struggle since crashing out of the playoff picture with back-to-back losses to Virginia and Georgia Tech. They beat FCS foe Campbell 59-7, but then struggled to get by Duke last week as 10-point favorites, winning by just 2 points in double overtime.
The biggest problem in recent weeks for UNC has been their defense, which has allowed 38.25 points per game in their last 4 against ACC opponents.
The Clemson defense is much better, meaning UNC will not be able to score at will to keep up in this one. The Clemson defense ranks 6th in the country giving up just 271.8 yards per game.
UNC is allowing 389.5 yards per game, so the Clemson offense which has gotten back on track, with 73 points in their last two games, should be able to score against UNC.
Look for the Clemson defense to be the difference in this one, as Clemson gets the win and covers Saturday afternoon.
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Michigan -19 @ Maryland – 12 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
Michigan is only 5-4-1 against the spread this season, but don't let that fool you. When it comes to more modest spreads (under -30), they are 4-0-1 (one push against Rutgers earlier in the season).
Michigan has beaten every team they played against by more than 20, except for Penn State last week, in which they won by 9 points against the 12th-ranked team in the country.
To think that they wouldn't be able to beat a 19-point spread against the 6-4 Terrapins, who only barely snapped a 4-game losing streak last week against Nebraska, is ridiculous.
Michigan is a top-10 team in points scored per game (39 ppg) and is the best defense in the country at limiting scoring (7.5 ppg allowed). Meanwhile, Maryland has an average offense, scoring around 29 points per game, and a slightly above-average defense, only allowing around 22 points per game.
It's not that Maryland is bad by any stretch of the imagination, but it is that Michigan has just been so dominant that it's unlikely that a team that ranks around the middle of FBS in most statistical categories will be able to compete.
Michigan has been going through a lot of off-the-field drama this year that has led to the suspension of their head coach, but so far, that hasn't been a problem. It seems like they have used that as motivation and have played better because of it.
I think Michigan easily covers the spread in this one.
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Iowa -3 vs. Illinois – 3:30 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
This is a case where there is value in the number because of how bad the Iowa offense has been this season. But what is not being taken in to account is just how good the Iowa defense is.
The Iowa defense is 3rd in points allowed at 12.3 points per game and 8th in yards allowed at 281.5 yards per game, so points will be hard to come by for Illinois.
We all know the Iowa way is going to run, run, and run some more, and they should have some success with that against an Illinois defense that allows over 154 yards per game on the ground.
Surprisingly, Iowa QB Deacon Hill is looking better commanding the offense as the season goes along. He threw for over 200 yards and a touchdown in the win against Rutgers last week.
Iowa has some extra motivation for this one, knowing that with a win they will clinch the Big Ten West Division outright and a berth in the Big Ten title game.
Illinois will get QB Luke Altmyer back from a concussion, but he will likely struggle to get up to game speed quickly against the Iowa defense. He has been a turnover machine on the year, throwing 10 interceptions so far on the season.
History is on the side of Iowa in this one. They have won 8 of 10 straight up against Illinois and 4 straight against them at home, with all the victories coming by at least 9 points.
Take Iowa to get the win by more than a field goal on Saturday afternoon.
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California @ Stanford OVER 55 – 6:30 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
These are not the greatest offenses in the world (Stanford with 20.9 ppg and Cal with 31.9 ppg), but they possess that innate PAC-12 ability to put up insane numbers when playing games against other PAC-12 opponents, especially when those opponents have below-average defenses.
These two teams certainly qualify as having “below average” defenses. Cal has the fourth-most points per game allowed in the FBS at 37. Stanford is basically just as bad, giving up 36.9 points per game, which ranks as the fifth-most in FBS.
Except for an unusual Washington State game, Stanford has allowed their opponents to score more than 40 points in each game for the past 6 weeks. Cal has allowed each of their PAC-12 opponents to score more than 40 except the defensive-focused Utah Utes, who still managed to score 34 against the Golden Bears, and Arizona State, who has one of the worst offenses in the conference.
In terms of offense, Cal has averaged a little over 31 ppg against PAC-12 opponents, and Stanford has only scored a little under 18 ppg. This only averages out to 49 points for the game, but I must stress just how much worse these defenses are compared to even other PAC-12 teams.
Cal and Stanford allow an average of 3 points more per game each compared to USC, 8 points more compared to Washington State, 13 points more compared to Washington, and a whopping 20 more points allowed per game than Oregon.
If these teams put up 31 and 18 points, respectively, on average, against these team's defenses, we can only assume they will each put up a boatload more against each other's defenses.
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Oregon State -1 vs. Washington – 7:30 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
Washington comes into this game undefeated and ranked 5th in the college football playoff rankings, yet they are underdogs to Oregon State, and for good reason.
Washington has faced a tough schedule the past few weeks, playing USC on the road, followed by Utah at home, and now a road trip to Corvallis to take on a very good Oregon State team.
Oregon State has lost twice this season, both times on the road by a field goal. So they are a few plays away from also being undefeated.
The one area where Oregon State has a clear advantage is on the defensive side of the ball. They allow just 333.1 yards per game compared to Washington who allows 409.9 yards per game.
The Oregon State defense should be able to keep Washington QB Michael Penix Jr in check.
That means Oregon State won’t need to score a ton of points to win and they certainly have the offensive firepower to keep up with Washington.
Clemson transfer DJ Uiagalelei has exceeded expectations at Oregon State this season, throwing 20 touchdowns against just 4 interceptions. He is leading the offense to an average of 37.9 points per game, while Washington is just above them at 41 points per game.
In a game between two evenly matched teams, I want the team with the better defense that can make a stop or two and that is definitely Oregon State. Take them to get the win and cover Saturday night and throw some more chaos in to the college football playoff rankings.
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