Super Bowl LVIII Best Bets

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We've made it to game number 272 of the 2023-24 NFL season: Super Bowl LVIII.

The Chiefs and 49ers will square off in Las Vegas on February 11, 2024, to see who will take home the Lombardi Trophy.

But you don't have to be in Vegas to bet on the game. With so many states legalizing sports betting over the past 6 years, bettors across the nation can get their bets in legally and securely.

No matter where you're at, we've got you covered with our experts' best bets for the big game, including 6 picks from our team of experts, including moneyline, total, and prop bets.

Let's see if we can make the last and biggest game of the season another profitable one.

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Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline (+110) – Competing Pick

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

When two teams are at the top of their game and at the pinnacle of their sport, it often comes down to experience.

In that regard, the Chiefs have a monumental advantage.

This will be the Chiefs' fourth Super Bowl in the last five years, and the vast majority of their starting team has played in at least one of those.

On the other hand, San Francisco only has a handful of guys who remember their last Super Bowl appearance four years ago, right before the world shut down due to a global pandemic and before the Brock Purdy/Christian McCaffrey era arrived in California.

That game, coincidentally, was also Chiefs vs. 49ers and resulted in a 31-to-20 win to give Pat Mahomes his first Lombardi Trophy and start a dynasty that could rival any in NFL history.

Can the 49ers get revenge on the Chiefs and cement themselves as their cross-conference rivals for the foreseeable future, or do the Chiefs pull off another win and deliver a gut punch to a franchise looking to reclaim their former glory?

These questions could theoretically be answered by looking into the numbers, but at this point in the season, the numbers do us little good. We know both of these teams are elite and have very few weaknesses, and while San Francisco puts up more eye-popping numbers, at least offensively, it's the Chiefs' experience and defensive dominance that I think will carry the game.

This is the best Chiefs’ defense we've seen during the Mahomes era, and it just keeps getting better week by week. The Chiefs’ offense might not be as statistically dominant as San Francisco, but I trust Mahomes/Kelce/Pacheco to do enough to win, assuming their defense comes to play like they have all year.

On every level of the defense, I expect the Chiefs to dominate. Trent McDuffie might be the best corner in the leagues (at least top 5, in my opinion).

Chris Jones has had a down year in terms of production but his disruption on the defensive front remains nearly unmatched in the league. Nick Bolton and Willie Gay make up the core of a linebacker room that is sneakily one of the best in the AFC.

The Chiefs have the defense to win this game. They may not have the big-name, flashy pass rushers that the 49ers have, but they are consistent and formidable.

I think the Chiefs will pull out a defensive win this Sunday.

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San Francisco 49ers Moneyline (-120) – Competing Pick

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

The San Francisco 49ers are in a great position to capture their first Super Bowl since 1994.

The 49ers are the most complete team top to bottom on both sides of the ball. The Chiefs may have the best QB in Patrick Mahomes, but he does not have the weapons to work with that he has had in previous years.

The 49ers’ best weapon is Christian McCaffrey, who will go up against a Chiefs defense that has struggled against the run this season, ranking 18th allowing over 113 yards on the ground per game. The Niners will make the sure their best player has the ball in his hands a lot both on the ground and in the passing game.

The Chiefs’ offense will have to work harder to get their best player Travis Kelce his touches in this one, but the 49ers’ defense has been excellent in coverage against tight ends this season, allowing just 4 touchdowns all year and only 50 yards per game.

The Chiefs’ receivers have not had a productive season and that will play a factor in this one as the 49ers are very good against the run, ranking 3rd in the league. That is going to force this game to be won with the passing game and the Chiefs simply don’t have the weapons to do that this season.

The 49ers have the offense to put up enough points to keep up with whatever Mahomes and the Chiefs offense manage to do.

The moneyline is not properly correlated to the spread in this game, with the 49ers sitting -2 against the spread, but only -122 on the moneyline. You would expect a -2 spread to be closer to -140 on the ML, presenting a strong value on SF -122.

They are the more complete team and will come away as Super Bowl Champions come Sunday.

Total Points UNDER 47.5 (-108)

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

You can talk all day long about Kyle Shanahan's offensive system and how creative and seemingly intuitive it is, especially considering its success regardless of who's at QB.

You can also obsess over how great Patrick Mahomes is at operating in Andy Reid's system and how it allows him and that offense to improvise and use their natural talent and instincts.

It's obvious how great these offenses can be, but I think you can make a case that both teams are defensive powerhouses.

Kansas City's young defensive secondary from a few years ago is hitting its stride, and their front seven is responsible for getting the second most sacks per game in the league.

San Francisco also has a great defense, with probably the most star-studded front seven any team has had in at least a decade, with Bosa, Young, Warner, Hargrave, and Greenlaw leading the group.

With Kansas City and San Francisco being second and third, respectively, in points allowed per game this season (trailing only Baltimore), I think it's a good bet to assume this will be a defensive battle, even with the high prestige of their offenses.

My best guess is that we will see about 5 touchdowns and 3 field goals in this game. That is consistent with games that each team has played against similarly dominant opponents. With two weeks for each of these teams to prepare for the other's offense, I think the defenses will have the advantage in this game.

I've got the under on this one.

Chiefs Total FG Yards OVER 63.5 (+105)

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

The Chiefs have one of the best kickers in the game in Harrison Butker. He is 33 of 35 on the season with the average distance of his FGs being 38 yards. So two average field goals get this one over.

Andy Reid also knows the importance of points in a game of this magnitude and won’t be afraid to send Butker out from 50+ yards to try one.

On field goal attempts of 40+ yards this year, Butker is a perfect 12 for 12. That kind of accuracy will instill confidence in a head coach to kick the FG and take the points when the situation presents itself.

With the Chiefs offense not being as dynamic as in past years some more field goal opportunities would appear to be available for them Sunday.

Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD Scorer (-115)

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

As much media attention and focus the connection between Pat Mahomes and Travis Kelce has gotten, the most consistent threat for the Chiefs offensively has been their second-year running back Isiah Pacheco.

Pacheco has been a TD machine, especially in the playoffs, with a score in each of the Chiefs' 3 playoff games this season. Kansas City has been riding him recently, giving him 23 touches per game in the postseason (21 rushes and 2 receptions) and 281 yards (254 yards on the ground and 27 yards through the air).

I expect to see a similarly impressive performance in this game by Pacheco, much like he did during last year's Super Bowl, where he ran for 76 yards and 1 touchdown.

The 49ers gave up 3 rushing touchdowns last week to the Lions, and only 1 passing touchdown, and I think that might be the type of scoring breakdown we see in this one as the 49ers focus on stopping Patrick Mahomes' passing game rather than the running game.

Over the course of the regular season, the 49ers were the 8th-best team in stopping rushing touchdowns but have been one of the worst teams at stopping the run during the playoffs. The 49ers have given up 318 yards and 3 touchdowns over the last two games.

Pacheco should be able to capitalize on this declining defense and score at least once during the Super Bowl. He scored during the Super Bowl last year and might end up being one of those big-moment types of guys you can count on to score in the biggest games.

Christian McCaffrey OVER 89.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

One way to ensure Patrick Mahomes isn’t on the field to work his magic is to run the ball and control the clock.

The 49ers have just the player for that in Christian McCaffrey. And he will be going up against a run defense where he should be able to control the game and pick up yards on the ground. He averaged over 91 yards per game on the ground this season.

For the oddsmakers to expect just an average rushing game out of McCaffrey against the 18th-ranked rush defense in the Super Bowl does not seem realistic.

The Ravens mysteriously only ran the ball 6 times with their running backs in losing the AFC Championship game to the Chiefs. You can be sure 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan will not make the same mistake in using his best player.

McCaffrey has gotten 88% of the carries that have gone to the RB/FB position in the playoffs, so we don’t need to worry about someone else getting the hot hand and the 49ers going away from McCaffrey in this one.

Take him for OVER 90.5 rushing yards Sunday.

Odds Assist Experts

The Odds Assist Experts consist of veteran handicappers with expertise in projections, finding favorable lines, and ultimately making winning picks.