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We're already in Week 11 of the NFL season and the playoff picture is starting to shape up. There's a lot of close division and wild card races still, and teams need wins now more than ever to keep their chances alive.
As always, our team of experts is here to give you the best NFL bets to make this Sunday, including spread and total picks.
Best NFL Week 11 Betting Picks
Los Angeles Chargers -3 @ Green Bay Packers – 1 pm ET
When I make my best picks, I typically focus less on stats and trends and more on individual players and matchups.
When you look at the specific players and matchups in this game, it seems pretty obvious that the Chargers are going to be able to pick the Packers' thin secondary apart with Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler.
The Chargers passing attack has continued to roll right along even with key injuries to Mike Williams and Josh Palmer, thanks to a career year being turned in by Keenan Allen and a solid performance by platoon players like Jalen Guyton, Gerald Everett, and their pair of TCU rookie receivers.
The Green Bay secondary, on the other hand, has struggled to stay afloat after a myriad of injuries left them without most of their starters. Darnell Savage and Eric Stokes are on the injured reserve, and their lockdown corner, Jaire Alexander, has been dealing with a lingering back injury for most of the year.
Right now, their secondary features Carrington Valentine, Corey Ballentine, Jonathan Owens, an injured Rudy Ford, and an injured Jaire Alexander. It's not exactly the ideal group to try and defend Justin Herbert and the Chargers passing attack.
As for the other side of the ball, the Chargers are essentially perfectly healthy and are full of playmakers and X-factors on defense, including Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack, Derwin James, and Asante Samuel Jr. This group should have no trouble shutting down Jordan Love and the Packers young offense.
I’m grabbing the Chargers by over a field goal.
Denver Broncos -2.5 vs Minnesota Vikings – 8:20 pm ET
The Broncos continue to improve every week following an embarrassing Week 3 loss 70-20 to the Miami Dolphins. The biggest improvement has been on defense. In the past 2 weeks, the Broncos' defense has held the Chiefs and Bills to a combined 31 points and forced 9 turnovers in those games.
Russell Wilson continues to improve, during the Broncos' 3-game win streak he has completed 72.7% of his passes along with 6 touchdowns and no interceptions.
While the Joshua Dobbs story is a nice one for the Vikings, this is likely the week where things take a step back for the Vikings. They will be on the road, in a tough environment and the running game will be no help to Dobbs. The Vikings are 29th in rushing yards, putting up just 85.7 rush yards per game.
The Vikings are playing for the 11th consecutive week as they have not had their bye yet and this is their 3rd road game in their last 4.
Look for the Broncos to continue playing inspired football and get the win and cover Sunday night.
Dallas Cowboys -10.5 @ Carolina Panthers – 1 pm ET
The Panthers may have gotten their first win a few weeks ago, but it hasn't been the turnaround moment they may have hoped for. Since their win against the Texans three weeks ago, they've lost to the Colts by 14 points and lost to the lowly Bears by 3.
The Colts' loss was defined by two Kenny Moore pick 6s thrown by Bryce Young, which killed off any momentum the Panthers had coming out of their Week 8 win and seemed to scar them going into the Bears game, in which they were incredibly conservative offensively.
They didn't turn the ball over last week but only recorded 213 yards of total offense and ended up losing to the Tyson Bagent-led Chicago Bears.
This leads us to this week's game, in which the Panthers are in a bit of a bind. They can try and push the ball down the field and risk turning the ball over to a team that is in the top half of the league in takeaways and is known for scoring points off of turnovers, or they can try and play conservatively and rely on their defense to keep them in it.
The problem with the latter scenario is that the Cowboys average 29.9 points per game this season and are coming off a week in which they scored 7 touchdowns against a team that has given up the exact same amount of points per game defensively as their own defense. In either scenario, the Panthers seem to be staring down the barrel of a big loss.
The Cowboys have little to no significant injuries and are coming off an easy, lopsided victory against a team similar in talent to the Panthers. It seems evident that this is going to be a multi-touchdown win for Dallas this week, even as their performances away from home recently have left a lot to be desired. They should win handily this week.
Washington Commanders -8.5 vs New York Giants – 1 pm ET
The Giants clearly have no NFL-ready QB on their roster as they plan to give undrafted rookie QB Tommy DeVito another start Sunday against the Commanders.
Last week against the Cowboys DeVito completed 14 passes for a grand total of 86 yards, which simply won’t cut it in the NFL. He is getting absolutely no help from his offensive line, as he has been sacked 11 times in his 2 starts.
DeVito’s lack of experience and skill will mask a lot of the issues the Commanders have had defending the pass this season. The Commanders are 29th against the pass allowing 264.3 yards per game, but you won’t have to worry about the Giants getting anywhere near that number Sunday.
The Giants' defense has all but packed it in, as they have given up 79 points in the past 2 weeks and have been forced to spend a lot of time on the field thanks to the lack of offensive production. Last week, the Giants' defense was on the field for nearly 38 minutes.
Commanders QB Sam Howell continues to perform well and he actually leads the NFL in passing yards. This is also a revenge spot for the Commanders, as they lost earlier this year 14-7 to the Giants.
Look for the Commanders to get their revenge with a comfortable win and cover Sunday afternoon.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills UNDER 40 – 4:25 pm ET
The Raiders put up 30 points on the Giants last week, but that appears to be a fluke, as they only average 17.3 points per game. With Aidan O'Connell at quarterback and three-fifths of their offensive line hurt, the Raiders offense likely won't make a habit of scoring 30 or more points, especially against a great Jets defense that has given up only 19.5 points per game this season.
As for the Jets' potential offense, I think it is pretty apparent that Zach Wilson isn't the answer, and if he does turn his fortunes around, it will be with a different one during a different year.
Without anything going in the passing game, they'll have to rely on Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook to get something going, and they could potentially get a few scores that way against the weak run defense of the Raiders, which has given up 138.7 rushing yards per game this season.
If the Jets can get a rhythm going in the run game, they could try and shorten the game by bleeding the clock on long drives, which could easily lead to a low-scoring game.
Neither of these teams is a stranger to low-scoring contests; they have a combined 5-12 over/under record and often undershoot the target by double digits.
This game should be no different than the countless others this season with teams that are average to below average. I don't see it being a big scoring contest. Play Under 36 on Sunday night.
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