NFL Week 15 Picks – Saturday & Sunday Best Bets

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We had another profitable week last week, going 3-1 on our NFL best bets, bringing us to 7-2 over the last two Sundays.

Let's see if we can keep it rolling this week with 5 more picks to make this Saturday and Sunday. Don't forget that there are 3 games this Saturday.

Below you’ll find our picks for the best NFL bets to make on Saturday (12/9) and Sunday (12/10) for Week 15 of the 2023 NFL season. Remember, you can always compare NFL lines and odds by sportsbooks here.

Best NFL Week 15 Betting Picks

Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings – Saturday, 1 pm ET

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

Bengals’ QB Jake Browning continues to look better each week with continued practice reps and game action. In the last 2 weeks, he has completed 82% of his passes and thrown for 3 touchdowns with just 1 interception. He has led the Bengals to 34 points in each of his last 2 starts—both Bengals wins.

Now the Bengals will face off against a Vikings team that can’t seem to find an answer at the QB position since losing Kirk Cousins. They will start QB Nick Mullens this week, who came on in relief of Josh Dobbs who struggled to put points on the board in recent weeks.

The Vikings scored just 10 points against the Bears in a loss 3 weeks ago and then, following a bye week, only a field goal in a 3-0 win over the struggling Raiders. The Vikings’ lack of offense will be a benefit to the Bengals’ defense which is one of the worst in the league in terms of yards allowed per game.

Justin Jefferson did play briefly last week but then left with a chest injury, and it’s hard to imagine he will be 100% come Saturday.

With the Bengals’ offense finally clicking, look for them to score enough to get the win by a field goal or more on Saturday afternoon.

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Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns OVER 37.5 – 1 pm ET, Sunday

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

The Browns’ defense has been dominant at home all season long until last week when an injured Trevor Lawrence came into Cleveland and threw the ball 50 times for 257 yards and 3 touchdowns for a total of 27 points. That was the second most they had given up at home all season.

Lawrence's performance wasn't perfect by any stretch of the imagination, but it showed that Browns’ defense has plenty of weak spots to exploit. Lawrence was able to open up the field in a way we haven't seen many times against the Browns this season. And he did that through the air despite the Browns giving up just 159.7 passing yards per game (the best pass defense in the league).

I think Justin Fields has a good chance at also opening up the field this week, as he has done in the last two weeks with back-to-back 200+ passing and 50+ running yard games. Fields could easily lead this reinvigorated offense to a big game this week.

As for the Browns' offense, we've seen two consecutive games in a row where Flacco has thrown 3 touchdown passes. The Bears only have the 22nd-ranked pass defense in the league, so it's very possible that we see another big game by Flacco.

The Browns' offense has recently been fueled by the passing game, especially to tight end David Njoku. This is great for them because the strength of this Bears' defense is their run game, so the more the Browns can throw it, the better chance we have of hitting over 37.5 total points, which I believe is a very achievable number for this game to reach.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers OVER 41.5 – Sunday, 1 pm ET

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

This is a perfect game for the over, and I think the only way it doesn't beat the total is if bad weather impacts the game. Like the rest of the country, however, Green Bay has had surprisingly nice weather this winter, and it is projected that it will be clear and sunny again on Sunday.

This is a game that looks like it will be close, with two good offenses and banged-up defenses on teams that are on the cusp of the playoffs in a critical game.
The Buccaneers are tied for first place in the lowly NFC South and can make the playoffs despite a losing record currently at 6-7.

The Packers are also 6-7 and still have a shot at a Wild Card spot despite a shock loss last week to the Giants.
The Packers had a bad game last week but still managed to score 22 points and got better as the game progressed. They've scored 25 ppg in the previous 4 games and may be getting star RB Aaron Jones back this week.

The Buccaneers have only scored 20 points per game this season but scored 29 last week against the Falcons. They have a newly found run game to balance their explosive passing game out with Rachaad White—who has run for nearly 300 yards over the last 3 weeks—and their explosive passing game that saw Mike Evans gain 162 yards two weeks ago.

This should be a very fun game. I don't see either defense having any kind of sustained success in this one. Both teams have the potential to score over 30, and we could see an absolute barnburner. This game should be must-watch and this pick is by far the safest of the game, if not the entire weekend.

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Arizona Cardinals +12.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers – Sunday, 4:05 pm

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

This is not a call for an outright upset but look for this to be a letdown spot for the 49ers following 2 games against Seattle sandwiched between a trip to Philadelphia.

Now the 49ers hit the road to take on the Cardinals, but have the Ravens on deck in what could be a preview of a Super Bowl matchup. The Cardinals also have the rest advantage in this one following a late-season bye last week.

Since Cardinals’ QB Kyler Murray has returned, the Cardinals are 2-2 and only one of those losses was by more than a touchdown.

As division rivals, these teams are very familiar with each other. In addition, the Cardinals have played the 49ers tough in recent years, especially in Arizona, where the 49ers have won by double digits only once in their last 5 meetings.

Look for the Cardinals to rely on veteran James Conner to try and control the clock and keep the 49ers’ offense on the sideline. Murray is also capable of making some plays with his feet to keep drives alive. Finally, don’t forget, this is the same Cardinals team that beat the Dallas Cowboys at home earlier this year.

12.5 points is simply too many, especially given the scheduling situations. Grab the points with the Cardinals on Sunday afternoon.

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Dallas Cowboys @ Buffalo Bills UNDER 50.5 – Sunday, 4:25 pm ET

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

The Cowboys have scored over 30 points in each of their last 5 games, but the caveat there is that 4 of those 5 games were in Dallas, where the Cowboys have been demonstrably better on offense.

The Cowboys have only scored 23.7 points per game away from AT&T Stadium, much lower than their 32.4 points per game total at home. With this game being played in Buffalo, I'm not super confident that they will score anywhere near 30 points, which automatically lowers my prediction for the potential total score.

Assuming they score 28 (much higher than their average in away games, but probable given their recent performances), that gives the Bills a cushion of 22 points to score to get to 50 points. The Bills have a decent offense, but the Cowboys have limited teams to only 17.9 points per game this season.

The Bills had a very similar game last week against a Chiefs team that has a similarly good defense to the Cowboys and scored only 20 points. The Chiefs also have an explosive offense like the Cowboys, and the Bills kept them to only 17 points.

That low-scoring style has been what the Bills have done all season; they've only been in 2 games that have gone over 50 points all season and have kept opposing offenses under 19 points per game.

This, combined with the Cowboys' defense keeping teams under 18 points per game, makes this game one of the best defensive games of the season, even if doesn't feel like it.

Both offenses are dangerous and could go off at any moment, but as mentioned before, the Cowboys tend to score more at home and both teams' defenses are dominant.

I'm fairly confident in the Under, especially given the high O/U that gives a lot of cushion if one of these teams ends up going off on a scoring tear.

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