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Week 4 of the NFL season is here and we've got some juicy matchups.
Sportsbooks started releasing lines for Week 4 shortly after the Sunday games concluded, and we've dug into them to find value that you should lock in now before lines move as we get closer to kickoff.
Let's see if we can keep things rolling after going 5-1 on our NFL picks last week.
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 vs. Atlanta Falcons – 9:30 am ET
The Jacksonville Jaguars and Atlanta Falcons meet in London for the first game of the NFL International Series for the 2023 season on Sunday morning.
The Jaguars are accustomed to making this trip every season, while the Falcons will be going over for the third time ever. The travel advantage will lie with the Jaguars in addition to them simply being the better team.
While the Jaguars have struggled mightily the past few weeks, a game against a bad Falcons offense could be just what they need.
The Falcons should not put up many points in this one. Last week against the Lions defense they managed only 44 rushing yards and 201 passing yards, and QB Desmond Ritter was sacked 7 times.
The Falcons managed only 2 field goals in the 20-6 loss to the Lions. Desmond Ritter has not looked good and has been more of a game manager than a guy who is capable of carrying a team on his shoulders and winning a game.
Now they will go up against a tough Jacksonville defense that held Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to just 17 points a few weeks ago. Last week against the Texans, the defense did not play as bad as the 37-17 final score would indicate. The Jaguars were done in by poor specials teams play and turnovers.
This line opened Jacksonville -4 and got bet down to Jacksonville -3. Going against the line move here and grabbing Jacksonville -3 before it bounces back up off the key number. They are the better team and should win and cover in London on Sunday.
Buffalo Bills -2.5 vs Miami Dolphins—1 pm ET
While the Dolphins looked great on offense last week in putting up 70 points against the Broncos, it will be a totally different defense they will be up against when they travel to Buffalo to face the Bills on Sunday.
The Bills defense allowed just 3 points to the Commanders Sunday and have given up just 35 points in 3 games, and 6 of those points were actually allowed by the Bills special teams unit.
So do not expect the Dolphins to move the ball at will and put up a ton of points as they did against a horrific Broncos defense.
When the Dolphins played the Patriots a few weeks ago, they managed just 24 points, so fans can’t get too caught up in the offensive explosion from last week.
The Bills meanwhile have found their stride after a tough opening night loss to the Jets. They have scored 65 points in the last two weeks, both easy victories.
History favors the Bills as well. They have won 9 of the last 10 games between the two teams.
This line opened Buffalo -3.5 and has been bet down to -2.5. I think as the week goes along, bettors will come around to the Bills more and drive this number back to -3. Let’s avoid buying too much in to the Dolphins hype after a record setting performance against the lowly Broncos and grab Buffalo -2.5 while it’s still out there.
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