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It's one of the best NFL weeks of the year, with games on Thursday, Friday, Sunday, AND Monday.
Instead of doing our typical opening line picks this week, we've got two picks for you to make on the early slate of games—one on Thanksgiving and one on Black Friday.
Seattle Seahawks +7 vs. San Francisco 49ers – 8:20 pm ET on NBC (Thanksgiving Night)
The 49ers travel to Seattle on a short week to take on the division rival Seahawks. These are two teams that are very familiar with each other and that should lead to another close game.
The 49ers suffered a blow Sunday in their win over Tampa as they lost their All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga to a torn ACL. This is especially bad timing as the 49ers will be facing off against the always-tough WR combo in Seattle’s DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. If there was any weakness at all the in 49ers defense it was in the pass game where they are just middle of the pack, allowing over 221 yards per game.
Look for Seahawks QB Geno Smith to get his playmakers involved early and often Thursday night. Following a season opening loss to the Rams, the Seahawks have won 4 straight at home.
San Francisco has always struggled with the Seahawks in Seattle, going just 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 in Seattle.
With a short week, travel involved and a game against a division rival, expect a close hard-fought game Thursday night. Take Seattle +7 to cover.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets UNDER 41 – 3 pm ET on Amazon Prime (Black Friday Game)
The New York Jets have decided that it would be better to prepare Tim Boyle to the lead offense on a short week than see any more of QB Zach Wilson.
Boyle has 120 career pass attempts and has thrown 9 interceptions compared to just 3 touchdowns, so this is definitely not an upgrade for the Jets but more of a statement about how they feel about Wilson overall.
Offensively, the Jets are 30th in both yards per game and points, averaging just 270.3 yards and 15 points per game.
The Dolphins offense is best in the league at 434 yards and 30.5 points per game, but they have not been nearly as good on the road as at home. On the road, they are averaging just 24.25 points per game.
Now they will go up against a tough Jets defense that allows just 20.4 points per game. The Jets strength is their pass defense, which ranks 5th in the league, so that should have the Dolphins looking to control the game on the ground, which will keep the clock moving.
The Dolphins defensively are very good against the run, allowing just 99.2 yards per game. That will put pressure on Boyle to make some plays, which given his lack of experience, will be a tough ask.
The trends support the under. The Dolphins have played to the under in 3 of their last 5 road games and the Jets have played to the under in 8 of their last 10 home games. 7 of the last 10 between these two teams in the Meadowlands have gone under.
Look for that to continue with another UNDER on Friday afternoon.
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