NFL Week 16 Opening Line Betting Picks

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We went 2-0 on our NFL Week 15 opening line picks after the Saints and Bills both blew out their opponents.

Let's see if we can keep it rolling with two more opening NFL line picks to make now before the lines move—two spread bets for this week.

You can see all of our current and historical NFL picks in our Best NFL Bets & Picks Guide. You can also compare NFL lines and odds by sportsbooks here.

Houston Texans -2.5 vs. Cleveland Browns – 1 pm ET

The Texans have momentum following a 19-16 comeback win over the Titans in Week 15. Now they will play a Cleveland Browns team that barely escaped at home with a 20-17 win over the Chicago Bears.

The biggest concern for the Browns appears to be at quarterback, where despite throwing for nearly 375 yards, Joe Flacco also threw 3 interceptions and showed why he was out of the league until just recently. The Houston defense ranks 6th against the run and that will put added pressure on Flacco to make plays.

There is a good chance the Texans will have CJ Stroud back after he missed last week with a concussion. Assuming he can clear protocol he would be in line for the start. If he can’t go, backup Case Keenum has shown he is a serviceable backup and good game manager.

The Browns' defense is a completely different team on the road than they are at home. At home, they are allowing just over 13 points per game, but, on the road, they are giving up over 30 points per game. The Browns are just 2-4 on the road, while the Texans are 5-2 at home.

This line opened up at Texans -1.5 and quickly jumped to -2.5. As the week goes on if it looks like Stroud is going to play, I would not be surprised to see this line get to the key number of -3, so grab the Texans under a FG now.


Miami Dolphins -1.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys – 4:25 pm ET

Until the Cowboys prove they can win a road game against a good football team, I’m playing against them away from home.

Last week, the Bills controlled the game against Dallas in a 31-10 win. The Cowboys got absolutely dominated at the line of scrimmage and the Bills ran for 266 yards against them. That will spell trouble for the Cowboys against Miami, who has the 4th-best run offense in the league, putting up nearly 140 yards per game.

The Cowboys’ 10-4 record remains unimpressive. The only team with a winning record they have beaten is the Eagles. Their other 9 wins have come against teams with a combined record of 42-83.

While the Dolphins haven’t beaten anyone of note this year (their combined opponent record in their 10 wins is 45-95), they have been dominant at home, going 6-1 and averaging nearly 36 points per game and allowing only just 16.4 points per game.

The Dolphins are expecting to get their best playmaker in Tyreek Hill back from an ankle injury to add a boost to an already explosive offense. The Dallas defense has struggled in recent weeks, giving up over 30 points twice in the span of 3 weeks.

Look for the Dolphins to control this game on the ground, connect on some deep shots downfield, and score some points. The Dallas offense will not be able to keep up.

Grab the Dolphins as a small home favorite Sunday afternoon.


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Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide his clients with high quality sports handicapping advice ever since. He is currently a handicapper with Rob Veno Sports and prior to that ran his own sports handicapping service. Rob has been featured on ESPN Radio as well as on his hometown sports station WIP out of Philadelphia. Rob O'Connor handicaps the NFL, College Football, College Basketball, and Major League Baseball.