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We had another winning NFL betting week last week, going 4-3 on our NFL picks. Let’s see if we can keep things rolling in Week 5 with 5 picks from our team of experts, including our first competing picks of the season.
Below you’ll find our picks for the best NFL bets to make on Sunday (10/8) for Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season. Remember, you can always compare NFL lines and odds by sportsbooks here.
Best NFL Week 5 Betting Picks
New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins OVER 47.5 – 1 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
The Giants' defense is embarrassingly bad. They've given up the 3rd most points per game with at 30.5.
The Dolphins' offense, on the other hand, produces video-game-like numbers. They've scored the most points per game in the league at 37.5.
It's very possible that the Dolphins cover all by themselves, but don't be surprised if the Giants put up points as well.
The Dolphins have given up 374.5 yards per game and 29.8 points per game and just gave up 48 to the Bills last week. Of course, the Giants’ offense is not the Bills’, but there are a lot of similarities. Daniel Jones is a poor man's Josh Allen, and Brian Daboll comes from the Bills’ system and has modeled the offense on what he had in Buffalo.
While those two don’t have Stefon Diggs or anyone similar, they have numerous weapons at their disposal, including Darren Waller, Darius Slayton, and Wan'Dale Robinson (who was one of the few bright spots on their offense last week). Not to mention the fact that Saquon Barkley could be back this week.
The Dolphins' electric offense has been written about in great detail and can honestly be summed up with one word: speed. Hill, Waddle, Mostert, Achane, and Berrios are all speedsters and can break any defense's back. The Giants' D has looked disoriented and undisciplined all season and it will be tough for them to keep up.
I expect at least 35+ points from the Dolphins and wouldn’t be surprised if the Giants put up 20+, so I’m grabbing the over.
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New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots UNDER 40 – 1 pm ET (Competing Picks)
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
The Saints are 0-4 to the under so far this season. Every game they've played has been low-scoring, with none of them going over 40 points. They are able to utilize their overwhelming defense and methodical offense to take control of the pace of the game and keep the game close.
The Patriots are also a defense-centric team that tends to keep scores low and, right now, the Patriots’ statistics don't necessarily reflect how good their defense actually is. They've given up 24.3 points per game, which ranks in the bottom half of the league, which is bad but doesn't tell the whole story.
The Patriots are actually the 10th-best team when it comes to limiting opponents’ yards on offense, only allowing 297 per game. You also have to consider the quality of their opponents. They gave up only 25 to the Eagles, 24 to the Dolphins, and 10 to the Jets, but then gave up 38 to the Cowboys with only 24 of those coming on offense.
Given the Patriots' underrated defensive prowess and the Saints' methodical style of play, it is hard to see this game having more than 4 touchdowns. If they score 4 touchdowns, they'll need another 4 field goals, which would mean 8 different scoring drives. I just don't see it happening.
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Denver Broncos -2.5 vs. New York Jets – 4:25 pm ET (Competing Picks)
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
The Jets continue to struggle since losing star QB Aaron Rodgers to a torn Achilles in Week 1.
Last week they played inspired football against the Kansas City Chiefs but ultimately fell 23-20.
Now they fly to Denver to take on a Broncos team that is coming off their first win of the season over the Chicago Bears.
The Broncos defense actually played much better in the 2nd half of the Bears game and they should be able to carry that momentum over against a Jets team that is putting up just 252.8 yards per game, ranked 3rd worst in the league. So despite the Broncos’ defensive struggles, the Jets will not be moving the ball at will on Sunday afternoon.
The Broncos’ offense has continued to get on track after a slow start to the season. They are averaging 25 points and 333.3 yards per game.
The Jets' defense is tough, but they are not as good as they appear. They actually rank 22nd in yards allowed per game at 363.8.
Both teams should score some, but when it comes crunch time, the edge goes to the Broncos offense to find the extra points needed to win the game. Laying under the key number of 3, play the Broncos to get the win and cover Sunday afternoon.
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New York Jets Moneyline (+116) at Denver Broncos – 4:25 pm ET
Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.
Did we all just forget the fact that the Broncos lost by 50 points to the Dolphins two weeks ago? Or the fact that the Zach Wilson-led Jets beat the Bills in Week 1 and nearly beat the Chiefs last week? Or the fact that the Jets have a roster that has the talent to go far in the playoffs (outside of QB after the Rodgers injury), and the Broncos… are the Broncos?
Let's be clear: the Broncos aren't horrible, but they certainly aren't good. It took them making a big comeback against the atrocious Bears to get their first win. They lost close games to the Commanders and Raiders, but they aren't pinnacles of excellence either.
Most importantly, the Broncos’ defense is laughable. They look confused and lethargic on the field and are battling numerous injuries. They've given up a whopping 478 yards and 37.5 points per game this season.
The fact is that the talent gap between the two teams in this game is wide, and it doesn't help that Justin Simmons, Frank Clark, Josey Jewell, Mike Purcell, Javonte Williams, and Jerry Jeudy are all questionable with injuries.
The Jets are simply the better team, and it is shocking that Vegas is listing them as underdogs (at least for now), even if it is only +116.
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San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 45 – 8:20 pm ET
Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.
The 49ers and Cowboys meet in a huge NFC showdown Sunday night that could have major playoff implications despite it only being Week 5.
These two teams also happen to be two of the top-scoring defenses in the league. The Cowboys are allowing a league-best just 10.3 points per game, while the 49ers are 3rd best in the league allowing just 14.5 points per game.
The 49ers have one of the best run defenses in the league, but the Cowboys will still have a commitment to the run, as they don’t want to get in a shootout with the 49ers offense. Look for them to work the clock and control the game on the ground and with the short passing game.
The 49ers will continue to be methodical in their offense approach, they are averaging just 62.8 plays per game compared to the Cowboys' 70.5 plays per game on the season. Look for Dallas to slow it down, not the 49ers to speed it up.
Play this game between strong defensive teams UNDER 45.
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