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We had our best week of the season last week, going 4-2 on our NFL picks. Let’s see if we can keep things rolling in Week 4 with 5 picks from our team of experts.
Best NFL Week 4 Betting Picks
Atlanta Falcons Moneyline (+144) @ Jacksonville Jaguars – 9:30 am ET
This week, the Jaguars start a two-game, pseudo-home-stand in England, and they are hoping a change in continents may equal a change in fortunes as well.
The Jags have been mired in a bit of a slump to start the season after coming into the year with relatively high hopes. They lost to the Texans by 20 last week in what was a pretty embarrassing performance that they hope will be the low point of their season that they can quickly turn around this upcoming weekend.
The Falcons lost to the Lions last week as they couldn't get their run game going, and they slowly let the game slip away in the second half against an outstanding Lions team.
Outside of that one bad week, the Falcons have been great. Ridder is doing what he needs to for Bijan Robinson and the other playmakers to lift the offense. The defense has been fantastic with their elite speed and stout secondary, giving the Falcons a chance to beat anybody. They just need to get in sync and fire on all cylinders, which they failed to do last week.
I think this game will be determined by which team can find a rhythm on offense, and I think the Falcons have a better chance against the Jaguars defense (25 points and 353 yards allowed per game) than the Jaguars against the Falcons defense (18 points and 297 yards allowed per game).
Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens UNDER 40.5 – 1 pm ET
This is a division matchup between pair of very good defensive teams that are quite familiar with each other.
The Browns are 1st in the league in yards allowed per game, giving up just 163.7 yards per game, and the Ravens are 11th in the league allowing 292.3 yards per game. Both teams are especially good against the run, Cleveland ranking 2nd and Baltimore ranking 8th.
The strong defenses have translated in to very points allowed by both teams, the Browns giving just 10.7 points per game and the Ravens allowing just 18.3 points per game.
The Ravens should get some key pieces of their defense back from injury as safety Marcus Williams appears set to return from a pectoral injury. They also expected center Tyler Linderbaum and tackle Ronnie Staley to be back, which should help them establish a stronger running game.
Both teams have done a good job with the pass rush, with Cleveland averaging 3 sacks per game and the Ravens averaging 3.67 sacks per game early in the season.
The trends also point to the under. Baltimore is 7-3 to the under in their last 10 games and Cleveland is an even better 8-2 to the under in their last 10. When facing each other 6 of the last 10 have gone under.
Look for another hard fought game between two division rivals and play the game UNDER 40.5
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 @ Tennessee Titans – 1:00 pm ET
The Bengals have followed their typical script so far this season. They struggled mightily in Week 1, played better in Week 2 but still lost, and then last week they finally cracked into the win column, and now they should be off to the races.
Last year, the Bengals lost their first 2 games but then only lost 2 more games all season. They are a sleeping giant ready to wake up, and this week could be their breakout game.
The Titans have a pretty good defense, allowing only about 22 points per game on average, but their lethargic offense will likely allow the Bengals offense to have ample time to get in sync. The Titans' defensive strength is also more on the rushing side, allowing only 69 yards rushing per game and a whopping 300 yards passing per game allowed. That is a perfect defense for the pass-heavy Bengals offense to tear up offensively.
If Deshaun Watson can throw for 289 yards and 2 touchdowns to receivers like Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones against the Titans' defense, imagine what Joe Burrow can do with Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. I believe the Bengals will score early and keep a solid lead throughout in what should be a fairly easy game for the Bengals in Tennessee.
Indianapolis Colts PK vs Los Angeles Rams — 1 pm ET
This is an absolutely terrible scheduling spot for the Rams and they did themselves no favors by electing to fly back to LA after a Monday night loss to the Cincinnati Bengals as opposed to staying east before another road matchup this week against the Indianapolis Col
So in addition to the quick turnaround, the Rams are dealing with a lot of travel in a short period of time and will continue to be without leading WR Cooper Kupp.
It would appear the Colts will be getting QB Anthony Richardson back from a concussion and it could not come at a better time as he has the speed to neutralize Aaron Donald and the Rams pass rush, which has not been that great this year (just 5 sacks through the first 3 games).
On the flip side, the Colts pass rush has been really good, averaging 4 sacks per game. Rams QB Matthew Stafford was sacked 6 times last week and the Rams have some injury concerns along the offensive line.
The Rams opened as a small favorite before the game was bet down to PK despite more money and tickets on the Rams.
The Colts pulled through for us last week and I expect another win and cover from one of the more surprising teams in the NFL to start the 2023 season.
New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys UNDER 44 – 4:25 pm ET
These two teams may have some of the best defensive units in all of football. Following Dallas' abysmal offensive performance against the Cardinals last week, I wouldn't say either of these offenses are particularly great.
The Patriots are averaging only 17.3 points per game this season, and the Cowboys have scored 28.7 points per game. Surprisingly, over the first three games, the Cowboys have scored only 6 offensive touchdowns.
The two teams have had a hard time finding any offensive success, but what could guarantee a low score in this one is the dominance of both of these defenses. The Cowboys have only allowed 287 total yards per game on average and only 12.7 points. The Patriots are also dominant, giving up only 285 yards per game on average and 19.7 points.
This makes sense when you consider that the Cowboys have stars like Micah Parsons and Demarcus Lawrence, and the Patriots have stars like Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez, who stifle opposing offenses.
This game seems like a slam dunk for bettors to take the under. The only wildcard for this would be potential defensive scores or turnovers that give teams good field position, but I think the odds are that even if those happen, it won't be enough to get the score over 44.
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