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We crushed it last week, going 5-2 on our Early NFL and Best NFL picks. We're pumped and ready to keep that winning streak alive as we march into the heart of the season.
For this week's slate of games, we've lined up five expert picks, covering moneylines, spreads, and totals. As we approach the halfway point of the NFL season, let's keep the good times rolling and start distinguishing the playoff contenders from the rest of the pack.
Best NFL Week 7 Betting Picks
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots UNDER 41 – 1 pm ET
I've been on a roll when picking the under for Patriots games, and I'm going stick to that same strategy again this week. The Patriots have been terrible on offense, and I don't see a turnaround anytime soon. And their defense still has the potential to limit opposition scoring even with Matt Judon on the sideline.
As for the Bills offense, I think last week's game against the Giants showed that they may not be the unstoppable force on offense they often seem to be. Josh Allen looked off his game, and there were clear weaknesses on that offense that Bill Belichick and the Pats defense will look to exploit.
These two teams know each other very well, and their first match of each season tends to be low-scoring as both teams look to adjust, and they tend to explode offensively in their second meeting of the season. Right now, I expect both teams to be slow offensively.
Minnesota Vikings +7 vs. San Francisco 49ers – 8:15 pm ET
The 49ers finally showed some weakness against a good Browns defense in a 19-17 loss after they missed a last-second field goal. Now they have to play on the road for a second consecutive week against a Vikings team that is not as bad as their record indicates.
Historically, the 49ers have struggled in Minnesota, claiming only 2 victories out of their last 10 games there.
The gap between these two teams is not very big: the 49ers rank 6th in yards per game, while the Vikings rank 12th. The 49ers do boast a stronger defense, ranking 3rd in yards allowed, as opposed to the Vikings, who are middle of the pack.
The Vikings' key to success will lie in their ability to protect the ball better, given their -7 turnover differential. Assuming they clean that up, they’ll be able to hang tight with the 49ers.
It's worth noting that the Vikings haven't lost a game by more than 7 points this season, including games against top teams like the Chiefs and Eagles.
Look for them to keep this one close as well and cover +7 at home on Monday night against the Chiefs.
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks UNDER 44.5 – 4:05 pm ET
It doesn't matter how good or bad these two teams are in a given season; the Cardinals vs. Seahawks rivalry is always a great show. These two division rivals know how to adjust defensively to adapt to the other offensive schemes, and this typically results in lower scores, at least in their first matchup of a season.
Last year, their first outing ended up in a 19 to 9 Seahawks victory; the year before that was a 23 to 13 Cardinals win. Over the last 7 years, they've only scored over 40 combined once in their first outing of a season, and it was during the unusual 2020 Covid year.
I expect this trend to continue, especially with the great pass rush that both teams possess (Seahawks are tied for 6th best in the league with 19 sacks, and the Cardinals are tied for 9th best in the league with 18 sacks).
The Seahawks also have an extremely talented secondary led by Devon Witherspoon, who seems to be an early favorite for defensive rookie of the year. The Cardinals' secondary is injury-riddled and lacking star power, but they've played slightly better than you'd expect for a group with starters like Qwantrezz Knight and Starling Thomas V.
While the Cardinals' secondary is a glaring weakness, the good news for them is that the Seahawks receiving corps is also in rough shape. Both Metcalf and Lockett are questionable for Sunday's game, and their rookie receiver, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who was supposed to be a key piece in their offense, has struggled to do much of anything this season. That leaves their receiving corps with just Jake Bobo and Cody Thompson.
Los Angeles Chargers +5.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs – 4:25 pm ET
The Chargers and Chiefs typically play close games, as both teams are very familiar with each other, and I would expect nothing different this week.
These are two evenly matched teams. The Chargers are putting up 365.4 yards and 25.4 points per game, and the Chiefs are averaging 382.3 yards and 24.5 points per game.
The Chargers are the more tested team at this point in the season, having played teams with a combined record of 16-14 compared to the Chiefs, whose opponents are a combined 17-20.
The last 10 games between these two teams have been decided by an average of 6.6 points, with the Chargers covering in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
The Chargers defense has shown major improvement, especially against the pass, since getting torched in week 1 by Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins.
Patrick Mahomes has not done a great job taking care of the ball, throwing 5 interceptions so far on the season.
The Chiefs struggled against a Broncos defense that allows everyone to score a ton of points, putting up just 19 points last week.
Look for the Chargers to score enough to keep up with the Chiefs and cover the number in what will be another down-to-the-wire game between these two division rivals.
Miami Dolphins ML (+120) @ Philadelphia Eagles – 8:20 pm ET
Why not take the Dolphins in this one? This will be one of the few times all season that this high-flying offense will be considered the underdogs. I like the Eagles' defense a lot; heck, I've even got them on my fantasy team. However, for this week, I might go get a different defense. The Dolphins offense is just too fast and too good; even the 85 Bears would have a hard time stopping this offense.
I also don't think the Eagles are going to be a massive threat with their offense in this one, either. Jalen Hurts has been uncharacteristically sloppy with 7 picks this season compared to only 7 touchdowns; he also has a fumble lost this season. Add to that injuries to his second receiving option, DeVonta Smith (hamstring), his tight end, Dallas Goedert (groin), and his right tackle, Lane Johnson (ankle).
With these injuries, plus the performance last week against the Jets that will give the Dolphins a blueprint on how to defend against the Philly offense, I think we could see another struggle for Hurts and his offensive group.
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