NFL Week 14 Picks – Sunday Best Bets (2022-23 Season)

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We went just below .500 last weekend, going 3-4 on our Sunday Best Bets. Let's see if we can get back to profitability in Week 14 with some more spread, total, and moneyline picks from our team of experts.

Below you'll find our picks for the best bets to make on Sunday of Week 14 of the NFL season. Remember, you can always compare NFL lines and odds by sportsbooks here.

Sunday Best Bets Season Record: 58-45-2 (56.3%) | +12.52 units

Best Sunday Bets – NFL Week 14 Picks

Denver Broncos +9.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs – 1 pm

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

The Denver Broncos may be 3-9 but that is because of Russell Wilson and the offensive struggles. The Broncos defense is actually one of the best in the league. They are 3rd best in the league allowing only 304.6 yards per game and 2nd best in the league in points allowed at 17 per game.

The Broncos are one of the better teams in the league at defending tight ends. They have allowed only 45 receptions to tight ends and 2 touchdowns from the position all season.

The Broncos have had success defending Travis Kelce recently. He is averaging only 30.6 yards per game in his 3 against the Broncos.

The Broncos will be thin at the WR position for this one, with Courtland Sutton out with an injury. That should lead them to focus on running the ball, grinding the clock and keeping Patrick Mahomes and the explosive Chiefs offense off the field. While Wilson has struggled, he still has play-making capability and the Chiefs are 11th worst in the league stopping quarterbacks on the ground.

The Chiefs have not been dominating opponents this season as they have in the past. Only three of their wins have been by more than 10 points. In the division, they are 3-0 with the three wins coming by a total of 7 points.

Three of the last five games between these two in Denver have been 1 possession games. Look for another close one Sunday as the Broncos defense steps up and keeps it close.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML @ San Francisco 49ers – 4:25 pm

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

The Buccaneers are finding ways to win games and slowly build confidence offensively. Now, their biggest concern moving forward this season is their injury issues on defense, especially in the secondary. Three of their top five coverage guys were out last week and are questionable to return this week.

Fortunately for them, they play a team on Sunday that is going through its own injury struggles.

Brock Purdy managed the 49ers banged-up offense well last week, beating the Dolphins 33-17, thanks in large part to their defense and their two big playmakers, Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey.

Now, not only is third-string QB Brock Purdy starting, but also both Deebo and McCaffrey are questionable for this game. Even if they play, the 49ers may not be comfortable giving either of them their usual workloads, which would significantly slow down their offense.

If the 49ers offense can’t get going and move down the field in big chunks against this battered Buc’s secondary with their big-money weapons like Deebo and McCaffrey, Tampa Bay’s linebackers can snuff out the underneath game and focus on limiting George Kittle’s impact.

The Buccaneers allow less than 200 yards in the air per game on average, so I don’t expect a huge Brandon Aiyuk or Jauan Jennings breakout game. The Niners offense in this game is going to depend on what they can get from Deebo and McCaffrey, and my bet is that they don’t do much.

With all that being said, you look on the other side of the field and it is a very real possibility that Tom Brady will only need to put up a handful of points in order to win. That may be tough against one of the best defenses in the league. The Niners have only given up 15.8 points per game, but Tom Brady has proved over the last four games that if they can keep it close throughout the game, he can turn it on in the fourth and pull out a win, even against a team as great as the 49ers.

Tennessee Titans -3.5 vs Jacksonville Jaguars – 1 pm

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

This line seems very light for a 7-5 playing at home against a 4-8 team. The Titans have had tremendous success against Jacksonville in recent years. They are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 against the Jaguars.

They have won 9 of the last 10 straight up with an average margin of victory of over 14 points per game during that stretch.

The Titans have one of the best run defenses in the league which is a good matchup for them against the Jaguars 10th ranked rushing offense.

On the flip side, the Titans are near the bottom of the league in passing defense, but the Jaguars are just a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to passing offense, so they likely won’t be able to fully capitalize in this facet of the game.

Jacksonville is just 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 games and they are an even worst 1-9 against the spread in their last 10 road games.

Tennessee on the other hand is 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games overall.

This is not a great situational spot for the Jaguars either who are on the road for the second consecutive week and did nothing to inspire confidence against a weak Detroit Lions team last week.

The Jaguars have one road win all year and that came against a depleted Chargers team. In their four road losses, all have been by at least 6 points.

Take the Titans as smaller favorites than they should be on Sunday afternoon.

Cincinnati Bengals -5.5 vs Cleveland Browns – 1 pm

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

In his first game back in nearly two years, Deshaun Watson was undeniably rusty in his return against the Texans last week. Will he be as bad as he was last week? Probably not. Will it be enough to keep the Browns in this game? I don't think so.

The Browns won last week thanks to turnovers and special teams. Two of their three touchdowns were on defense and the other one was on a punt return. They won’t be able to recreate that this week against a Bengals team that has only turned the ball over 12 times all season (tied for fourth fewest in the league) and has only had 17 punts returned for more than one yard (tied for fifth fewest in the league).

If the Browns want to compete, their offense is going to have to turn on in a major way. I don’t expect Cleveland’s defense to do any favors for their offense this week.

The Bengals score 26 points per game this season and are in the midst of an offense-powered winning streak in which they actually scored 31.5 points per game against four defenses that all allow fewer points per game than the Browns this season.

Long story short, the Bengals are primed to have an impressive offensive day and put up a big number on the scoreboard. There is nothing I saw from the Browns offense last week that suggests that they can keep up.

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