NFL Week 4 Picks – Best Sunday Bets

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After a great Week 3, we're looking to keep things rolling this week as we make our way towards the quarter mark of the 2022 season.

There are a lot of great matchups this week with some compelling matchups and interesting lines.

Below you'll find our picks for the best bets to make on Sunday of Week 4 of the NFL season. Remember, you can always compare NFL lines and odds by sportsbooks here.

Sunday Best Bets Season Record: 21-11-0

Best Sunday Bets – NFL Week 4 Picks

Dallas Cowboys –3 vs Washington Commanders (1 pm)

Bill Christy
Bill Christy

Bill Christy is a seasoned sports bettor who operates his own handicapping business. Follow Bill on Twitter at @LarrysLocks2.

The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a losing record and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against an NFC opponent. The Commanders are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 against divisional opponents and 1-4 ATS on the road against opponents with winning records at home.

Cooper Rush will be starting his third game in replacement of the injured Dak Prescott and will be looking to move to 3-0 in that role. The offense has not been explosive but has been great on third down keeping drives alive and maintaining the advantage in time of possession.

The defense of the Cowboys is what really makes me confident in this play. The Eagles sacked Wentz 9 times last week and this Dallas pass rush is currently #1 in the league in sacks (13). It may be an ugly game but the Cowboys should come out on top by at least a field goal.

Baltimore Ravens +3 vs Buffalo Bills (1 pm)

Dave Rathmanner
Dave Rathmanner

Dave Rathmanner is the Founder of Odds Assist. While he bets on more sports than he likes to admit, the NFL is his passion and where his expertise lies.

The Ravens come into this game after a huge let down against the Dolphins in Week 2 in which they blew a 35-14 lead in the fourth quarter.

The Bills are undoubtedly one of the most talented teams in the NFL, but they still have a banged-up secondary and should have trouble containing Lamar Jackson and a Ravens offense that is first in the league in PPG.

While I’m not sure if the Ravens will win this game outright, I expect them to keep it close in this matchup of AFC heavyweights. Lamar Jackson is just playing too good to get blown out by a Bills team that isn’t fully healthy.

Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 vs Denver Broncos (4:25 pm)

Bill Christy
Bill Christy

Bill Christy is a seasoned sports bettor who operates his own handicapping business. Follow Bill on Twitter at @LarrysLocks2.

Denver is currently 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against AFC opponents and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Raiders have dominated ATS in recent history against the Broncos, going 8-2 in their last 10 meetings.

Russ and the Broncos offense just can’t seem to get on the same page yet and that is going to be an issue here. Maxx Crosby should feast off the edge rushing Russ and causing havoc in the backfield. This Broncos team may be the worst 2-1 team in the league right now.

The Raiders offense has not been as prolific as Vegas fans have dreamt about since singing Davante Adams, but they have been better than this Broncos offense. We expect the Raiders to simply outscore the Broncos offense in this one and get a field goal victory with ease.

Arizona Cardinals ML @ Carolina Panthers (4:05 pm)

Dave Rathmanner
Dave Rathmanner

Dave Rathmanner is the Founder of Odds Assist. While he bets on more sports than he likes to admit, the NFL is his passion and where his expertise lies.

Matt Rhule is an atrocious 3-10 ATS as a favorite while QB Baker Mayfield is just 11-22 as a favorite ATS. While it’s always hard to bet against Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals are simply the more talented team. 

The Panthers offense hasn’t been able to get much going and I expect DC Vance Joseph to continue bringing the pressure like he has all season. The Cards are ranked first in blitz rate and given Mayfield’s track record against the blitz, there’s no reason for them to slow down now. So far this season, Baker has completed just 46% of his throws when blitzed.

It is a bit concerning that the Cards are underdogs in a spot where I would expect them to be favorites, but I’m going to take them to win outright in Carolina in a get-right spot.

Note: The Cardinals are now favorites in some books. Be sure to shop around for the best lines and odds to make sure you get the best deal. 

Jacksonville Jaguars +6.5 @ Philadelphia Eagles (1 pm)

Bill Christy
Bill Christy

Bill Christy is a seasoned sports bettor who operates his own handicapping business. Follow Bill on Twitter at @LarrysLocks2.

Jacksonville should be 3-0 instead of 2-1 right now. They held a 22-14 lead over the Commanders in the 4th quarter before completely imploding. They looked tremendous in their shutout win over the Colts and are coming off a big road win 38-10 against the Chargers.

The Eagles are flying high and have one of the best and most balanced offenses in the league right now. They are the only remaining undefeated team as they welcome in their former head coach to town this Sunday.

The Jags are 5-2 in their last 7 road games against teams with winning home records. The Eagles are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win. Home favorites of 3.5 to 6.5 points this season are just 2-8 ATS this season. 

I expect the Eagles to come out victorious but not by more than a couple of points.

Chicago Bears +3 @ New York Giants & UNDER 39.5 (1 pm) (Competing Picks)

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

The New York Giants got a shot of reality last week after going undefeated in the first two weeks of the season. They lost in a fairly ugly 23-16 game to the Cowboys on Monday Night in which their offensive and defensive line proved to still be the glaring weakness of a team that continues to break my heart.

I am a lifelong Giants fan, so believe me when I say that I was shocked to see that FanDuel and other sportsbooks had the Giants as 3-point favorites against the Bears this week. The Giants may very well win this game, but they are not winning it by more than a few points.

The Giants don’t beat anybody by three points, let alone a talented young Bears team that runs for more than 186 yards per game and has held opponents to just 19 points per game this season. The Giants are going to have a hard time scoring this week, and the Bears may be able to take advantage of that fact.

Despite David Montgomery being out this game, Khalil Herbert and Justin Field should have no problem moving the ball on the ground. If the Bears can effectively utilize their running game that has so far put up 186 yards per game against the Giants defense which has given up 138 rushing yards per game, they should be able to keep control of this game—perhaps winning—but at least staying close.

The Giants have scored just 18.7 points per game this season compared to the Bears 17.3 points per game. Expect a close, low-scoring game that could go either way, but won’t be more than a one or two-point difference.

New York Giants –2.5 vs Chicago Bears (1 pm) (Competing Picks)

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

The Giants enter this game with a 2-1 record and have been riding the resurgence of running back Saquon Barkley on offense. He has over 400 yards of offense in the first three games of the season.

That success should continue on Sunday when he goes up a Bears defense that is tied for 2nd worst against the run early in the season allowing 157 yards per game.

The Bears also come in to this one at 2-1 with wins over the 49ers and Texans at home and an uninspiring loss at Green Bay in between those two wins.

The bottom line is the Bears simply do not have a lot of talent, especially on offense and they will be without top playmaker running back David Montgomery, who is out with a knee injury.

It’s not like they can turn to the passing game to make up for his loss. In 3 games this year the Bears have completed just 23 passes for less than 300 yards.

It will allow the Giants to key in on backup running back Khalil Herbert and force QB Justin Fields to beat them, which given his track record seems unlikely.

Laying less than a field goal at home, look for Giants as the more talented team to get the win and cover Sunday.

Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions UNDER 47.5 (1 pm) (Competing Picks)

Kyler Wolff
Kyler Wolff

Kyler Wolff is a sports writer with a passion for football & statistical analysis. He uses his knowledge of the game and ability to break down stats to make the best picks.

47.5 points in this game is way too high even in the best of circumstances for this game, add in some key offensive injuries and offenses that have been run-heavy so far this season, and you have the ingredients for what could be a low-scoring affair.

Neither one of these offenses are super productive or efficient, but so far this season the Lions have been able to put up good numbers, averaging 31.7 points per game. This high scoring has largely been due to two players; WR Amon Ra St. Brown (321 all purpose yards and three touchdowns), and RB De’Andre Swift (308 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns). Unfortunately for the Lions, both of these players are injured and will be out for Sunday’s game.

The Seahawks might not be in as much injury trouble as the Lions, but even healthy, the Seahawks have had a hard time putting up points. The Seahawks have put up an abysmal 15.7 points per game early this season, despite a better-than-expected start to the season by Geno Smith.

All in all, you have two teams with very little offensive capabilities. The Lions don’t have much for a pass game outside St. Brown, and the Seahawks haven’t been able to get the run game going with Rashaad Penny not recapturing the magic he had at the end of last season. If we don’t see some big plays by Metcalf and Lockett this game may not get over 25 total points scored, let alone the 47.5 that sportsbooks have the over/under set at.

Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions OVER 47.5 (1 pm) (Competing Picks)

Rob O'Connor
Rob O'Connor

Rob O’Connor is a veteran sports handicapper. He broke into the industry in 2002 and has continued to provide high quality sports handicapping advice ever since.

The Lions and Seahawks get together in Week 4 battle of 1-2 teams.

Both teams have struggled defensively early in the season. The Seahawks are 25th in yards allowed per game and the Lions are even worse at 29th.

Offensively the Lions are third in the league in total yards per game and also third in rushing yards per game.
Their success on the ground should continue against the Seahawks run defense which is tied for second worst in the league allowing 157 yards per game on the ground.

While the Lions may be without running back D’Andre Swift, they have a very capable backup in Jamal Williams who is averaging almost 4 yards per carry and has four touchdowns in 3 games.
Seattle QB Geno Smith has looked good early in the season, completing 77.5% of his passes on the season.

The Lions struggle against the pass, ranking 25th in the league and the Seahawks have some receivers that will cause the Lions trouble in Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf.

Both teams have been trending to the over. 7 of the last 10 Lions games and 6 of the last 10 Seahawks games have gone over the total.

Look for that to continue Sunday in Detroit.

Teaser: Denver Broncos +8.5, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7

Dave Rathmanner
Dave Rathmanner

Dave Rathmanner is the Founder of Odds Assist. While he bets on more sports than he likes to admit, the NFL is his passion and where his expertise lies.

Both the Bucs (vs Chiefs) and Broncos (at Raiders) enter Week 4 as short dogs in games that they could easily win.

After only scoring 43 points so far this season, I expect the Broncos offense to start meshing and put up points against a lackluster Raiders defense.

The Bucs, on the other hand, get Mike Evans and possibly Chris Godwin back, which should help them score more than the 17 PPG they’ve averaged so far this season.

Besides expecting both offenses to take a step forward this week, there are some trends that support this pick. Russell Wilson is 27-13-2 as an underdog ATS while Brady is 15-1 ATS after a loss.

I like teasing both of these teams through the key number of 3 and up to/through the key number of 7 in games that I expect to stay close.

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